World Toilet Day

Snapshot  Tonight John Rinier (a regular contributor)clued me in to the important fact that somebody is trying to get November 19th declared World Toilet Day.  Seems appropriate for our current and forecast weather pattern.  The information can be found here.

I'll do a short post tonight because I'm a bit behind.  It sure is a mild night.  It's still 53 degrees at PDX…we haven't even made it down to our average high temperature yet!  Easterly gradient continues pretty strong this evening.  It seems to have peaked at 7 millibars PDX-DLS around 1z.  Models handled that really well last night.

We just had our RPM model upgraded here at the station…WSI runs the model and then we get the output every 6 hours.  It now goes out to 72 hours instead of 48, which will be useful for small-scale details with winter weather systems.  I'll work on getting some sort of text output from it that weather nuts can view online.

It's been a warm Fall so far, which clearly means our winter will be:  wait, one isn't related to the other so I don't want to hear someone claiming a warm November leads to a warm winter.  In fact I was on ANOTHER weather forum this afternoon and noticed someone had done a comparison of Seattle's November weather versus the following winter's snow potential.  Warm Novembers didn't dent future winter snow totals in La Nina and La Nada years…like we have now.

Well, it just happened.  The first of the season.  Steve Pierce just pointed out the Omega-Block looking setup around 300 hours of the 00z GFS.  That's the first official "cold air warning, send out the Alert Vipers" email that I've received this Fall.  That cold air is pretty close…could be exciting.  Too bad it's at 300 hours away!  Mark Nelsen

AND, we have an Oregon Chapter AMS meeting tomorrow with our own SP talking about the Vancouver Tornado here is the official notice:

________________________________________________________________________

The Oregon Chapter of the AMS will hold its November meeting this Thursday, November 20th.  It will feature speakers Steve Pierce and Dave Elson, who will both share interesting information about this past January’s Vancouver Tornado.

 

The meeting will be held at the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) office at 729 NE Oregon Street in Portland (near the Lloyd Center), in the Celilo (basement) Room.  Signs will be posted at the front entrance directing you.

 

Start time is 7:00 p.m., and come with a dessert for others to taste.  The Chapter will provide soda and water.

 

For parking, finding a spot on a nearby street is the best idea.  There are some parking garages nearby as well.  The surface lot immediately adjacent to the building will not be available.

 

Here is the formal meeting announcement that contains additional information:

http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/OR-AMS_meeting_Nov20-2008.pdf

 

I hope you can make it!

 

Drew Jackson

Secretary, Oregon Chapter of the AMS

 

78 Responses to World Toilet Day

  1. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I at least like the trend… Despite what appears to be a random run with pretty warm temps the GFS is headed back to cooler pastures. Perhaps I will start to get some faith.
    Hopefully the 00Z like luvry noted is the beginning of a new and cooler trend.

  2. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Strong east winds if the GEM verifies.

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:


    Canadian looking a bit cold at day 10
    It is going to get to cold somewhere in North America…that much we know

  4. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    I had a nigh of 53.8 today…at midnight! Still above normal. The temperature showed a general trend down the whole day. The temp now is 40.

  5. luvry (Aloha) says:

    Hour 336 on the 00z:

    The GFS seems to be picking up on some sort of trend. After the first amplification, it looks to want to rebuild the ridge in a better position to give us a better chance at a cold dip. The devil is always in the details but I am not looking at the details right now, I’m looking at the pattern and the trends in the models, I will be very interested to see if the ensembles finally come around and support of if the operational is once again an outlier.
    Time will tell!

  6. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Ya I wish I could have gone to the AMS meeting 😦

  7. SalemPhil says:

    Hey Tri, I think most folks are at the AMS meeting tonight. I have checked out the street view on google earth though. Cool but kinda creepy at the same time lol!

  8. TriforceofEternity says:

    On the other hand my question will get ignored due to model talk so forget what I asked. X:
    Weather report: 47.1F and mostly clear.

  9. TriforceofEternity says:

    Has anyone played with Google’s street view?

  10. TriforceofEternity says:

    Has anyone played with Google’s street view?

  11. gidrons says:

    Well, I’m confused why the 18z looks bad, but I’m a newbie and don’t know all the places to look. It looks to me like the low that drops out of the Gulf of Alaska to Nevada brings about 2500′ snow levels on its way over Oregon around hour 180, then sets up a potentially cold moist flow from the east.

  12. gidrons says:

    Well, I’m confused why the 18z looks bad, but I’m a newbie and don’t know all the places to look. It looks to me like the low that drops out of the Gulf of Alaska to Nevada brings about 2500′ snow levels on its way over Oregon around hour 180, then sets up a potentially cold moist flow from the east.

  13. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Well, debbie downer post of the night. I didn’t post this last night because everyone was excited about the OMEGA block pattern…there has been NO support from the ensembles at all for that pattern to set up. The Operational was an outlier for a couple runs. When I see this, I know the operational is usually on crack but sometimes…sometimes the operational picks up on a pattern change before the ensembles, we will know in about 300 hours which were right πŸ™‚
    Steve Pierce kinda liked the 12z Euro, I didn’t at all. Steve knows his stuff though so I guess we’ll have to see what evolves the next 24-48 hours on the models.

  14. jacob BPA says:

    oops that was me

  15. Anonymous says:


    THis may cheer you up
    Im off to U of Hawaii in 2 weeks
    Then off to Guam for Research work
    Cold air will come in middle of December White Christmas anyone ??????????? time will tell

  16. Anonymous says:


    THis may cheer you up
    Im off to U of Hawaii in 2 weeks
    Then off to Guam for Research work
    Cold air will come in middle of December White Christmas anyone ??????????? time will tell

  17. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Definitely like the CPC predictions for the winter months.
    Hopefully the 18Z is an outlier… Though considering the GFS has been hanging on to warmer weather throughout the run I gotta think this is just the model going back to the original trends.
    I really hope not!

  18. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Definitely like the CPC predictions for the winter months.
    Hopefully the 18Z is an outlier… Though considering the GFS has been hanging on to warmer weather throughout the run I gotta think this is just the model going back to the original trends.
    I really hope not!

  19. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Thanks Mark,
    I’ll note that for future reference. It was snowing at the time, but the freezing level could have been higher.

  20. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Thanks for the link.
    Below normal temps with average precip….
    I like those possibilities.

  21. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Thanks for the link.
    Below normal temps with average precip….
    I like those possibilities.

  22. boydo3 says:

    I tried a post earlier but got blocked. Take a look at the jan,feb,mar prediction from the CPC.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

  23. boydo3 says:

    I tried a post earlier but got blocked. Take a look at the jan,feb,mar prediction from the CPC.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

  24. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    It is dark outside! I saw a rainbow on the way home, but since then, the heavy showers have moved in from the west and it is raining and very dark.
    Temp is 49.

  25. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I like bonuses, don’t you πŸ™‚
    Seems reasonable and Pete knows his stuff…

  26. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    It is often an outlier Rob, but I worry it may not be this time. In many of the analogs for this year, there is a lot of ridging over us or near us in December from what I have heard, that ridging backs off more to the west in late Dec/Jan/early Feb, opening the door for colder weather. Pete Parson’s says he thinks any cold we get before then would be a bonus πŸ™‚

  27. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    It is often an outlier Rob, but I worry it may not be this time. In many of the analogs for this year, there is a lot of ridging over us or near us in December from what I have heard, that ridging backs off more to the west in late Dec/Jan/early Feb, opening the door for colder weather. Pete Parson’s says he thinks any cold we get before then would be a bonus πŸ™‚

  28. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    It is often an outlier Rob, but I worry it may not be this time. In many of the analogs for this year, there is a lot of ridging over us or near us in December from what I have heard, that ridging backs off more to the west in late Dec/Jan/early Feb, opening the door for colder weather. Pete Parson’s says he thinks any cold we get before then would be a bonus πŸ™‚

  29. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    [Surface gradients]
    As of 3 PM
    PDX-EUG: -4.5
    OLM-EUG: -8.2
    Sure glad 18z is often an outlier as the 06z is. I hope that rings true with the 00z later removing any idea of a rex block.

  30. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Paul, you beat me again…18z is ugly, all I can hope is that the models are misreading the pattern change and don’t cut a low off over Nev/SoCal, instead blasting the polar vortex out over us for days on end of sub zero temps…uhhhh, yeah.
    18z sucks.

  31. PaulB/Eugene says:

    18Z = rex block

  32. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I didn’t see an Omega Block on the 12z GFS. What I did see what a large sprawling area of high pressure just barely offshore with N to NE flow at times around the back side of it bringing down colder air from British Columbia/western Alberta. What this shows is that we are quite close to getting into some cold air and very chilly air may flood the east side of the Cascades with this pattern. Where as the ridge didn’t show much amplification it did show hopes of some retrogression. With that being said depending on how much cold air settles into the Columbia Basin I suppose there is an outside shot of some type of wintry precip if the east wind gets cranking. I would like to see this ridge about 200-400 miles further offshore though.

  33. snowguy says:

    or,, OMEGA block..?? sorry

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