Lots of Rain

Snapshot This image is the output from the 18z run of our RPM model here at the station.  It pretty much shows the story for the next 48 hours.  Lots of rain…maybe 1-2" in valleys and 5-8" in the Cascades.  I see the freezing level gets up to around 11,000' by Wednesday morning too.

Now, that said, our new 00z run is somewhat drier.  It shows 4-5"
 totals in the Cascades and closer to 1+" in the valleys.  This goes with the 00z GFS which along with the other GFS runs today has been gradually pushing the core of the heaviest rain to the north.  That means another flooding cycle for already-wet Washington.

The IR satellite and water vapor images sure look impressive with a very long fetch of subtropical moisture extending from the West Coast to the Dateline.  Plenty of juice out there for lots of rain, but the bullseye is going to be slightly north of us.

As for wind, I sure don't see a windstorm.  Just a lot of gusty south wind beginning tomorrow and continuing through Wednesday.  Earlier model runs today had cut off the wind quickly early Wednesday as a weak cold front (and most of the rain) sagged to our south.  Now it's looking like it'll take most of Wednesday to get the front through here.  So gusty south wind both days.  I don't see a gradient that would produce gusts much above 35-40 mph, so that's my top range for the valleys.

For the Thursday and beyond period?  Back to dry with some sort of longwave ridging nearby for quite a long period.  Each model run has been a bit different, but they all say mild and mainly dry into the 3rd week of November.  Don't lose hope skiers and snowboarders.  It will only take 2 good storms to put the ski areas in business and that can happen quickly!  Mark Nelsen

90 Responses to Lots of Rain

  1. TriforceofEternity says:

    Now for the Weather (Mark Nelsen hands the mic to Triforce) Ummmm (feedback noise) WOAH!
    Good evening! It’s 55.9F out there just about to pop to 56F and it’s breezy (checks out Wind speed chart) We are somewhere in this according to the Oak tree on our neighbors lawn.
    13-18
    mph 20-28
    kph 11-16
    knots Moderate Breeze Small branches move, raises dust, leaves and paper.
    Small waves develop, becoming longer, whitecaps.
    5 19-24
    mph 29-38
    kph 17-21
    knots Fresh Breeze Small trees sway.
    Taken from http://www.marinewaypoints.com/marine/wind.shtml
    I have 0.39 since my last erase and steady rain right now. (camera zooms outside) I hope I break the 1″ mark!
    Now back to the Ancohrage Sky cam just for fun.

  2. TriforceofEternity says:

    Thanks gloriusnumber1! I like that forecast much better! I hope that pans out.
    PDX-EUG: -2.6
    PDX-MFR: -6.6
    Posted by: Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- | Tuesday, November 11, 2008 at 04:45 PM
    PDX-EUG: -3.0
    PDX-MFR: -8.0
    Posted by: Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- | Tuesday, November 11, 2008 at 07:25 PM
    Hmmmm not much increase for the Willamette valley (Sorry if I spelt that wrong so don’t’ flog me) :O
    I wonder when the 35 to 40mph winds will strike?

  3. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    South winds gusting 25+ now
    Peak 29.2 so far.

  4. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    South winds gusting 25+ now
    Peak 29.2 so far.

  5. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    [Surface gradients]
    As of 9 PM
    OLM-EUG: -8.5
    OLM-MFR: -13
    PDX-EUG: -3.3
    PDX-MFR: -8.2

  6. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    No problem, Wrath & Tyler – I only just ran across that cam in the last couple of days. I’m originally from Anchorage, so was excited to see such good image quality on this – so many streaming cams are super-choppy/low res.
    As for building heights – I’m not sure what the max height allowed is, but I think it’s roughly around the 250 foot mark (20-25 stories, give or take). That’s just a guess though. Another building in the mid-town district was just recently finished at 14 stories and one over 20 stories was proposed downtown, so they’re still popping up.

  7. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I am noticing temperatures rising a tad this evening. That could come into play with the mixing I’ve been talking about producing breezy-gusty south winds.
    Perhaps 40mph+

  8. mike from orchards says:

    55F here….winds S to SSW at 6mph/gusting to 10…..073″ rain since midnight (.028 since 4:30pm….)

  9. Andrew Johnson says:

    Thanks…I hope the 0Z continues the decent trend in the long term.

  10. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Nice link to the Anchorage cam…the new building catches my eye…I was up there in July, and was under the impression that due to the number of earthquakes up there, no buildings would go above 3 stories. Hmm, maybe they have changed code.

  11. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Nice link to the Anchorage cam…the new building catches my eye…I was up there in July, and was under the impression that due to the number of earthquakes up there, no buildings would go above 3 stories. Hmm, maybe they have changed code.

  12. 55.9
    Have had .59″ in that last 24hrs.. .12 of it in the last hour.

  13. gratefulduck (weather blog lurker) says:

    54.3
    Have had .52″ in that last 24hrs.. .15 of it in the last hour.

  14. gloriousnumber1 says:

    Well why not have some more rain before the faucet temporarily shuts off? I wouldn’t mind some nice dry days for the weekend, it would be nice for the things I’m going to be doing, although it is probably quite the opposite for some people.
    I want snow too! Last year it snowed where I was (garden home area, not much elevation) on christmas, and my stupid camera battery was dead and I had no charger, plus I had no cell phone camera then, so I didn’t get a single picture dang I am still mad, like the flower that bloomed on the movie “dennis the menace” where he was so mad he missed it… yeah it was kinda like that!
    This year I will be ready, although I will probably be old and gray by the time it happens again.
    And let me add to triforce’s forecast (thanks for the idea!)
    December 24th 2008 at noon:
    (FOX 12 weather page, Mark’s Forecast)
    “Well, it looks like all the conditions are coming together for a nice white Christmas. We have a nice wet pacific system headed our way right now even though it’s currently dry. Cold air is headed down from the gorge and will fill the entire willamette valley and even spill over to the pacific beaches. It seems that both will hit us at exactly midnight, and expect several inches on the ground by christmas morning. I don’t see any chance of freezing rain or sleet, as the cold air will be thick enough to stay snow. After Christmas day, I expect a quick cold snap with highs in the 20’s with lows in the teens, so the snow should stick around for a while. And in the ski resorts, your 3 feet of new snow will add to the already well above average snowfall so far this year, sure to help make this season go down into history and make 2007-08 season look like child’s play.

  15. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Ice, thanks a lot for the cam! It’s a good one.
    I added it to my growing collection of streaming weather cams 100+

  16. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Triforce, yep ready for the warm front. Bring on some wind!
    [Surface gradients]
    As of 7 PM
    OLM-EUG: -6.0
    OLM-MFR: -10.0
    PDX-EUG: -3.0
    PDX-MFR: -8.0

  17. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    speaking of Anchorage, here’s a streaming webcam pointed toward a newly constructed building in mid-town Anchorage.
    http://www.188northernlights.com/cam.htm
    It’s the first streaming one I’ve come across… there are lots of great still-shot webcams up there too.

  18. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    speaking of Anchorage, here’s a streaming webcam pointed toward a newly constructed building in mid-town Anchorage.
    http://www.188northernlights.com/cam.htm
    It’s the first streaming one I’ve come across… there are lots of great still-shot webcams up there too.

  19. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    speaking of Anchorage, here’s a streaming webcam pointed toward a newly constructed building in mid-town Anchorage.
    http://www.188northernlights.com/cam.htm
    It’s the first streaming one I’ve come across… there are lots of great still-shot webcams up there too.

  20. TriforceofEternity says:

    My main purpose of posting is that it’s 55.2F now so it’s gone up with .004″ of rain per hour. Are you guys ready 4 the warm front?

  21. TriforceofEternity says:

    My main purpose of posting is that it’s 55.2F now so it’s gone up with .004″ of rain per hour. Are you guys ready 4 the warm front?

  22. TriforceofEternity says:

    But wait in LA LA LAND towards Jan 1st the models are showing signs of significant cold and a retrograde pattern setting up shop! Aren’t you happy?
    PS What is soothsayer? I don’t like the sound of that.

  23. TriforceofEternity says:

    But wait in LA LA LAND towards Jan 1st the models are showing signs of significant cold and a retrograde pattern setting up shop! Aren’t you happy?
    PS What is soothsayer? I don’t like the sound of that.

  24. Andrew Johnson says:

    Check out the 18Z for Fairbanks lol…In lala land its crazy cold -40 at the end with like -28 850mb temps, thatd be nice if we could build some cold air up there. We don’t really want arctic air til after Thanksgiving anyways…For maximum effect lol

  25. Andrew Johnson says:

    Check out the 18Z for Fairbanks lol…In lala land its crazy cold -40 at the end with like -28 850mb temps, thatd be nice if we could build some cold air up there. We don’t really want arctic air til after Thanksgiving anyways…For maximum effect lol

  26. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    ..Tri the soothsayer….

  27. TriforceofEternity says:

    The Oregonian
    Dec 24th 2008
    The weather outside is frightfull and the fire is soo delightfull and wait where is all the snow?
    The huge blog of moisture is now going to hit mostly Western Washington which has been the trend this year which means this for us.
    Valley Floors: .50 to 2″ of snow if we are lucky as the system will be pretty weak by then for us.
    Cascades between 6″ to 1 and a half feet of snow.
    Oregon Coast: Rain and snow mix if you are lucky in the hilly areas.
    Cold air:
    Ummm what cold? It’s expected to be down in the upper teens to low 20s with highs in the mid to upper 30s nothing Oregon can’t handle. The cold air will remain to the east of us and shoot down the Frasier river falley and strike Washington hard.

  28. TriforceofEternity says:

    Hey you evaded my question. :O :O How does a warm front produce gales down here?
    Has anyone notice that is the trend to have all the storms sock Western WA? I hope that isn’t a sign for cold air/snow either this winter.
    Dec 23-26 2008 The Oregonian:
    Major Polar blast expected for PNW and is this a white Christmas?
    We got a low pressure in the Hudson bay ready to send a huge blog of cold air to the entire West Coast from Contenital Canda but mostly the PNW will feel the brunt of it.
    This is looking to be a potential for a good snow producer with plenty of moisture from the Pacific Ocean riding a strong jet stream.
    The cascades will get between 1 and 2ft of new snow finally allowing the ski lodges to open just in time for the holidays after an unusually warm and wet fall!
    The valley floors may get anywhere between 6″ to 1ft dependign on geography and elevation which even just a little will help.
    This is a farliy wet system with moisture from the ocean making heavy wet snow.
    Freezing levels around that time are expecting to be 100ft or less which may cause sleet for Lincoln city/newport that will accumulate up to 1″ or so then turn to the dreaded ice.
    The cascades will get between 1 and 2ft of new snow finally allowing the ski lodges to open just in time for the holidays after an unusually warm and wet fall!
    The temps are expected to plunge into the single digits for the valley floors of Western OR and WA respectivly and upper teens as far south as Newport with highs just barley above freezing there. We expect highs in the 20s during the cold part for the valley folks so the snow will last quite awhile!
    This storm will also break our 10-day dry inversion stretch we’ve been having the last week or so, The burn ban hammer may be lifted. 🙂
    Call (insert number here) for travel tips to deal with incliment weather or go to our website. (insert website here)

  29. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …um lets see…its a rainy *******…no…cant say that…um, rainy ********…no cant say that either…
    it’s really wet…..

  30. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Cherie–Rod Hill said that today we got about half the rain he expected and he doesn’t expect flooding in Vernonia. I hope that everything else is going well.

  31. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Cherie–Rod Hill said that today we got about half the rain he expected and he doesn’t expect flooding in Vernonia. I hope that everything else is going well.

  32. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Yeah John WV loop shows the main moist plume with heaviest precip aimed further north than I expected.
    I’m really wondering if any of it sags south and the brunt of our precip comes with the cold front tomorrow.

  33. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    [Surface gradients]
    As of 4 PM
    OLM-EUG: -4.5
    OLM-MFR: -8.5
    PDX-EUG: -2.6
    PDX-MFR: -6.6

  34. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    [Surface gradients]
    As of 4 PM
    OLM-EUG: -4.5
    OLM-MFR: -8.5
    PDX-EUG: -2.6
    PDX-MFR: -6.6

  35. We are now seeing the first of the next warm front. The radar shows steady light to moderate rainfall widespread through NW Oregon, slowly spreading North to our neighbors in Washington.

  36. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    It seems to me that Mark said we’re going to get 2 more waves of rain. One tonight and one Wednesday afternoon.
    I think I heard Mark say that most of the rain will fall in the mountains and not in the valley.
    Please feel free to correct if I heard incorrectly.

  37. mike from orchards says:

    Looks again like western Washington is going to get the major proportion of the rain…..Maybe this pattern (storm track just to the north) will be the dominant one for the 1st half of the season.
    54F here….winds gusting from the south to 13mph…pressure holding relatively steady at 29.95″

  38. mike from orchards says:

    Looks again like western Washington is going to get the major proportion of the rain…..Maybe this pattern (storm track just to the north) will be the dominant one for the 1st half of the season.
    54F here….winds gusting from the south to 13mph…pressure holding relatively steady at 29.95″

  39. Clues on coming winter elude experts
    In fact, the most definite forecast seems to involve ‘extreme cluelessness’
    Friday, October 24 | 8:49 p.m.
    ERIK ROBINSON
    COLUMBIAN STAFF WRITER
    PORTLAND — Steve Pierce, a longtime weather watcher who lives in Vancouver, had a big year even by his prodigious standards.
    Flooding, heavy snow in the foothills, even a tornado raked Southwest Washington over the past year.
    At one point, Pierce was sending so many e-mails before an unusual springtime heat wave that his Internet service provider shut him down. Pierce said the provider cited a cap of 1,000 recipients per day.
    “I think they consider that excessive use,” he said.
    Pierce may not have cause to be quite so frenetic in the winter ahead, at least according to the rough consensus of a panel of weather prognosticators who gathered Friday in Portland. The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society hosted its 16th annual winter weather forecast before almost 200 people — its largest crowd ever — at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry.
    Last year was dominated by La Niña, characterized by relatively cool equatorial waters off the coast of South America.
    The climatological condition generally results in relatively cool and wet wintertime conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Its opposite number, El Niño, generates a much stronger jet stream near the equator — resulting in consistently warmer and drier conditions in the Northwest.
    This year falls in the middle, leaving forecasters grasping to discern similar years in the past while applying a mix of art and science to characterize the winter ahead.
    “There really is no strong signal this year,” said Steve Todd, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service in Portland. “George calls that, ‘extreme cluelessness.’”
    Todd referred to George Taylor, the veteran climatologist who retired from Oregon State University earlier this year. For his part, Taylor figures there’s a good possibility of at least one “Pineapple Express” rainstorm from the equatorial Pacific. Historically, those warm and moisture-laden storms tend to be the ones that cause the most flooding, especially if they wash atop lower-elevation snowfall.
    Taylor, with concurrence from the other panelists, expects another early and healthy snowpack.
    That should be good news for skiers as early as November. When it melts off in the spring and summer, it drives dam turbines, boosts fish migration and satisfies irrigators in the Columbia River basin.
    With climate models indicating a weak La Niña could develop in the months ahead, some forecasters say they expect temperature and precipitation to see saw above and below average from month to month. Weather will bounce from cold to warm, wet to dry.
    “I expect it to be a roller coaster ride this winter, just like it was last winter,” said Pete Parsons, a former television meteorologist who now works for the Oregon Department of Agriculture.
    Pierce, the Vancouver weather observer, said natural processes have fascinated him ever since he watched Mount St. Helens erupt as an 8-year-old in 1980. The former engineer, now a stay-at-home dad, said he figures this will be “an anything-goes type of winter.”
    After three years without it, Pierce said, we’re overdue for snow down to the valley floor.
    To the big question — snow or no snow — Taylor probably employed as good a model as any when he tossed a coin into the air. The audience waited as Taylor glanced at the quarter and then made the call:
    “Heads.”
    Erik Robinson: 360-735-4551 or erik.robinson@columbian.com.

  40. Brian in Bellingham says:

    I think yevgeniy.beaverton was referring to the 18Z run, which shows something very different. La La land though.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_312.shtml

  41. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Wendy – I believe the next round of heavier rain is going to be 6pm-12am. At least that is what I’ve heard on the forecasts.
    Perhaps someone else that has a good idea of how to read the radar images and estimate when the next band comes in can give something more accurate.

  42. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Wendy – I believe the next round of heavier rain is going to be 6pm-12am. At least that is what I’ve heard on the forecasts.
    Perhaps someone else that has a good idea of how to read the radar images and estimate when the next band comes in can give something more accurate.

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