Lots of Rain

November 10, 2008

Snapshot This image is the output from the 18z run of our RPM model here at the station.  It pretty much shows the story for the next 48 hours.  Lots of rain…maybe 1-2" in valleys and 5-8" in the Cascades.  I see the freezing level gets up to around 11,000' by Wednesday morning too.

Now, that said, our new 00z run is somewhat drier.  It shows 4-5"
 totals in the Cascades and closer to 1+" in the valleys.  This goes with the 00z GFS which along with the other GFS runs today has been gradually pushing the core of the heaviest rain to the north.  That means another flooding cycle for already-wet Washington.

The IR satellite and water vapor images sure look impressive with a very long fetch of subtropical moisture extending from the West Coast to the Dateline.  Plenty of juice out there for lots of rain, but the bullseye is going to be slightly north of us.

As for wind, I sure don't see a windstorm.  Just a lot of gusty south wind beginning tomorrow and continuing through Wednesday.  Earlier model runs today had cut off the wind quickly early Wednesday as a weak cold front (and most of the rain) sagged to our south.  Now it's looking like it'll take most of Wednesday to get the front through here.  So gusty south wind both days.  I don't see a gradient that would produce gusts much above 35-40 mph, so that's my top range for the valleys.

For the Thursday and beyond period?  Back to dry with some sort of longwave ridging nearby for quite a long period.  Each model run has been a bit different, but they all say mild and mainly dry into the 3rd week of November.  Don't lose hope skiers and snowboarders.  It will only take 2 good storms to put the ski areas in business and that can happen quickly!  Mark Nelsen