Warm Air Moves In

Snapshot  Finally, after waiting all day for the south wind to take over, the warming suddenly arrived at PDX a few hours ago.  I don't think the cool east wind will make a return for tonight, so we'll be well into the 50's all night long.  Check out the rainfall totals up north in Western Washington.  1.20" in 6 hours at Olympia, 6"+ at a spot in the Olympics too.  4 rivers already have flood warnings up there with more to follow as the rain continues tomorrow.

I think we probably won't have much rain here in the Metro area until about midday tomorrow.  The frontal zone and it's good lifting stays to the north most of the day tomorrow and Saturday.  A wave comes through tomorrow afternoon/evening, so we do get a decent surge of rain.  Then cooler rain Saturday and Sunday.

I see Timberline has had 2.20" snow, then rain today.  The 20" or so is melting quickly with temps into the 40's at that elevation.  It'll all be gone by Saturday morning.  There will be some new snow at/above Pass elevations Sunday and Monday, but now it looks like another warm period the middle/latter part of next week.  00z GFS and 12z ECMWF have very warm 850mb temps at +7 to +10 again during that time.  So no early start to the ski season in sight yet…Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Warm Air Moves In

  1. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I am only saying maybe isolated 50mph IF there is good mixing with the warm front.
    It is a 190-200mph jet moving towards us after all.
    Tomorrow morning-afternoon…
    Then wondering if winds get gusty/strong again Wednesday.

  2. Justin/ KVUO snowman says:

    The wind will be very routine for a mid November storm like this.
    The rain looks like the much bigger story. Tomorrow and Wendesday could very well both feature over an inch.

  3. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    MM5 also only showed 20-25kts during the December wind storm few years ago.
    Yeah not a wind storm surely, but a wind event looks possible.
    I’m still sticking with gusts 40 to maybe 50mph.

  4. TV Weather Producer says:

    MM5 doesn’t support anything higher than maybe a 30 mph gust at most. I think it will be breezy, but not wind storm.

  5. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Weather looks pretty blah next few days. Lots of rain and some breezes.
    I don’t believe in strong winds until they are occurring, and occurring at my location.
    I remember having a high wind warning up a few years back and my peak wind was like 12 mph.

  6. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    It means an inversion. Cold air trapped at the ground and as you increase your elevation the temp gets warmer. Say between 2000 and 5000 feet it can be quite a bit warmer than in the valleys. Say 50’s vs 30’s mid winter.
    I have camped in the high desert (Joshua Tree) in So Cal during mid winter and can remember temps approaching zero at night. It can get quite cold in the deserts and mountains down there in winter, but the coastal valleys, not gonna happen.

  7. luvry (Aloha) says:

    Glorious, it means there will probably be some sort of inversion… The air above will be pretty warm. It won’t affect us as much here down low because the warm air above along with the low sun angle, traps the cool air from the overnight hours in the valley, basically “capping the valley” thus causing fog all day to the point we see barely any daytime heating. The foothills on the other hand, bask in the sun and warm nicely because they’re above the inversion.

  8. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …please tell Derek Boring Larry sez Hello, and enjoy the sun while your there…thanks!..

  9. gloriousnumber1 says:

    Does anyone know what “very warm in the foothills” means on the 7 day graphic?

  10. Derek (Arcadia California) says:

    (Received from Derek on October 25th) Another update from down here in California. Continues to be hot with 90’s most days. Today has been nicer with upper 70’s and sunny. I will report later when it actually rains.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Yes you do Triforce….
    So who’s thinking 40-50mph gusts in the valleys?
    I am…. thinking power outages sporadic but possible.

  12. luvry (Aloha) says:

    Oh great, the infamous No Snow is making his/her annual appearance.
    No Snow, your comical anti-snow posts are somewhat entertaining.
    But keep you’re insults off the blog. Maybe tri should teach you a couple things about respect, as that is a much more valuable asset than being able to drive. 🙂

  13. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Oh wow I didn’t see that other comment.
    NoSnow you have been kicked off here several times.
    You are not welcome here. Do not speak to Triforce like that ever again.

  14. TriforceofEternity says:

    Umpire you just posted the same time I did so ignore what I said. Thanks for defeanding me.
    It’s dropped ONE WHOLE DEGREE! :O The awesome changes of the PNW.
    Nosnow why don’t you go live in Redding? You can have heavy rain/sometimes with lightning and you will win more when you say no snow for you. (they get a dusting once every 2 or so years on average) More points for you if you live there.

  15. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    <— Never model rides..
    I do think colder weather near/after Thanksgiving seems possible. But really it just about is every year so that isn’t saying much.
    As usual everything is a crapshoot.

  16. TriforceofEternity says:

    No blog minimum today.
    49.6F here and cloudy. Sounds like we are going to have a big rain event coming up.

  17. jacob BPA says:

    We just got out of a meeting we will be holding on to most of our crews Tuesday for the coming weather No holiday Tuesday for me now
    Strong winds may affect the valley
    Fab 5 now at Def con 3
    Meeting 10pm

  18. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Paul…mid December it is then hehe.
    BTW, Is it just me or has the last couple runs pushed the ridge axis off to the west a bit each run? 18z puts that ridge about 10 degrees from a great cold shot (the further in the extended ridge), where it was directly over us on the 00z and 06z…wonder if we can get this ridge to retro even more?

  19. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    i am thinking this can be a suprise storm

  20. mike from orchards says:

    looks like Western Washington is under the “rain” gun again…

  21. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    sounds spot on and perhaps slightly low based on what the models keep spitting out.

  22. Derek (Arcadia, California) says:

    (Received from Derek on October 25th) Another update from down here in California. Continues to be hot with 90’s most days. Today has been nicer with upper 70’s and sunny. I will report later when it actually rains.

  23. PaulB/Eugene says:

    The dreaded Big Fog Ridge pattern usually is not a long lived setup during the mid-autumn. Yes it will be quite foggy towards next week, especially with all the low level moisture from the recent and expected rains.
    This pattern should not persist into Thanksgiving.
    I certainly looks like it will be a cold week over the Great Lakes, NE, N Plains
    Just usual PacNW weather coming up…the 18 inches of snow, lows in the single digits will have to wait until Dec 16….woops I slipped.

  24. IceKeeg - workin' in Tigard says:

    NWS special weather statement:
    Very wet Pacific weather systems moving inland this week…
    Out over the Pacific tropical moisture is spreading into a series
    of wavy frontal systems that will ride a 200 mph jet stream into
    the Pacific northwest. This will bring periods of rain with some
    areas of moderate to heavy rain moving into northwest Oregon and
    southwest Washington beginning Tuesday morning and continuing at
    times into Wednesday night. Early Tuesday morning the snow level
    will start out at around 4500 to 5000 feet in the South Washington
    Cascades and the north Oregon Cascades and the Cascades of Lane
    County and 3 to 5 inches of snow may fall in some areas before the
    snow level rises up to 7000 to 8000 feet in the afternoon and
    precipitation turns to rain. It is not sure yet where the rain
    fall will be most focused but this moderate to heavy rain could
    cause some rivers and streams to rise rapidly. Additionally it
    could cause rapid runoff or debris flows for creeks draining old
    burn areas from the Summer such as the Gnarl Ridge burn area and
    the kitson burn area.
    As the first of the strong Pacific fronts approaches early
    Veterans Day south winds will increase along the coast and may
    gust up to 55 mph at times near beaches and headlands.
    In addition to the wind and rain… another concern with this storm
    will be the potential for minor tidal flooding in area bays and
    along the coast. With the full moon coming midweek… astronomical
    high tides will be the highest of the month Wednesday and Thursday
    mornings. The strong frontal system will likely build west swells
    along the coast to 16 to 18 feet… meanwhile significant rain
    runoff will be emptying into area bays Wednesday and Thursday. The
    result may be minor tidal flooding of low lying areas along the
    coast and Bay Shores especially Wednesday morning and Thursday
    The large west swell and very strong Ebb currents will also
    result in very rough bar conditions… especially on the Columbia
    River bar where 20 to 22 foot seas and breaking waves are likely
    Wednesday. The large seas and strong currents will also increase
    the risk of rip currents along the coast.
    This is a developing weather pattern and details are still
    uncertain. You should stay alert to following weather forecasts
    and bulletins on this potentially strong wet weather system.

  25. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Didn’t some of the good winters follow warm Novembers? Don’t worry, we will get our winter!

  26. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Oh also it looks like late Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning might be rather breezy-gusty S-SW winds.
    The gradients do not like up perfectly, but there is a decent -5 PDX-EUG shown and -10 OLM-EUG…
    We’ll see….
    One thing to consider is the jet will be raging 170+kts so if this is a predominately warm system mixing could come into play giving some unexpected higher gusts 40+mph…

  27. luvry (Aloha) says:

    NO El Nino. Not in the cards this year.

  28. mike from orchards says:

    Except for some heavy rain the 12th and 13th, seems like there is nothin’ to get excited about for a while…………………I agree Tri…maybe an El NINO?????..ha ha….

  29. Triforce of Eternity says:

    What is this an Elnino? The boring winter of 08-09 with ridges and weak systems, PAH! Let’s just move to Redding.

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