A Look Back

Markfrzrain5Tonight I've been working on a presentation for next Tuesday out at the Port of Portland (PDX).  The operations people have a yearly meeting where they get together and go over winter storm plans.  Such as…how do we get Mark Nelsen on a flight to Kauai as soon as the snow starts flying.  Okay, maybe that's not going to happen, but you get the idea.  Remember the 1996 Ice Storms?  Rain changed to freezing rain on Christmas Night, and ice continued to accumulate through much of the 26th east of I-205.  Then a second surge of cold air along with moisture from the southwest moved in late on the 27th and the 1st half of the 28th.  I clearly remember the end of that ice storm with 55 degree air around Gateway while temps 2 miles away to the north were around freezing. Good times, good times…

Back to reality and our current weather:  Nice warm front sliding up the coastline right now.  Temps in the Cascades and Valley haven't jumped yet, but they will in the next few hours, especially south of Portland in the Valley and in the mountains.  Radar shows what is probably the warm front moving into Western Oregon right now.  It should be over Portland by 11pm at the latest.

Looks real wet briefly tonight and early in the morning.  Then a decent break with most rain north of us until sometime Friday.  Lots of rain over the weekend with pretty strong westerly flow.  For now I don't see any system that sticks out as producing tons of rain or strong wind here in the Valley.  Typical very wet November weather is going to continue through next week…Mark Nelsen

82 Responses to A Look Back

  1. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    LOL you guys are in the wrong thread.

  2. ya that foul was dumb but everyone makes dumb calls like snowman just did… but he made up for it… like snowman never does 😉

  3. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    ROY MVP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    LOVE THE GAME WINNING SHOT!!!

  4. are you dumb? I LOVE ROY HE IS THE BEST F YA
    ROY FOR THE WIN
    ROY FOR MVP
    59.9

  5. Justin/ KVUO snowman says:

    Brandon Roy sucks.

  6. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Pretty quiet down here today. Cloudy with light showers on and off for a total of 0.18″ so far today. Never saw any winds over 10 MPH. Pretty sheltered little valley here within the foothills.
    Currently 53.7°, DP 52.6°. RH 96%, Winds are calm, no rain in last hour.

  7. Rob Martin says:

    Wow, as soon as the winds changed to S at PDX the temps jumped 8 degrees in 30 minutes! That just saved and possibly blew my forecast for today, it has to stop warming up!
    PDX
    06 Nov 8:28 pm 61 57 88 S 9
    06 Nov 7:53 pm 60 57 90 S 10
    06 Nov 6:53 pm 60 57 90 S 9
    06 Nov 6:23 pm 59 57 94 S 14G18
    06 Nov 5:53 pm 51 51 100 ESE 8

  8. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …i’ve been sitting at 51.6 since early afternoon….still wet….

  9. Tyler in vancouver says:

    First good sign that the east winds are having a cooling affect. Vancouver is 61 and Troutdale sits at 48. Oh the difference between an east and a south wind.

  10. TriforceofEternity says:

    Welcome Danny! Since this blog has no emoticons I made this for you. http://www.thesmileysign.com/temp/1868ddc9d9ee315c9f684891bd6a533826fd0dac.gif It’s a free sign smiley generator where you can make any sign you wish from scratch, You can even change the expressions too. 😀

  11. TriforceofEternity says:

    Welcome Danny! Since this blog has no emoticons I made this for you. http://www.thesmileysign.com/temp/1868ddc9d9ee315c9f684891bd6a533826fd0dac.gif It’s a free sign smiley generator where you can make any sign you wish from scratch, You can even change the expressions too. 😀

  12. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    It felt like I was at the coast today, drizzle and light rain all day in Washougal. Steady breeze out of the east, temp in the 40s. I get home and its barely sprinkling, and the temp is 58.

  13. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    I think we’ve pretty much had a breezy day all day with south winds and kind of a mist more than rain… when it wasn’t out and out raining. Break in clouds now and the clouds are just racing along to the north at a pretty good clip. Abundance of colorful leaves dancing around in the air today before falling to the ground.

  14. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    I think we’ve pretty much had a breezy day all day with south winds and kind of a mist more than rain… when it wasn’t out and out raining. Break in clouds now and the clouds are just racing along to the north at a pretty good clip. Abundance of colorful leaves dancing around in the air today before falling to the ground.

  15. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Welcome to the blog, Danny.
    Southerly winds kicking in here finally.
    Temp up from 49.8 to 58.1 in 12 minutes.
    I see southerly winds increasing 25-30mph from Aurora down the valley.

  16. mike from orchards says:

    Think your right ‘Wrath…..winds here are gradually shifting towards the south. Been easterly here (not too strong) most of the day. Now SSE at 5mph….more consistantly southerly now….Temp 55F…DP 55….057″ rain since midnight.
    Welcome Danny…I myself is relatively new here and you WILL learn lots!

  17. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Welcome Danny, you’ll learn a lot here for sure!

  18. Jesse-Orchards says:

    What’s with Mark warming up the last two days of the 7-day again?
    Wednesday looks pretty cool by all measures. Probably around 50.

  19. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    A city divided….
    What I mean by this is east of I-205 and near the Gorge the easterly wind continues keeping temps in the upper 40’s where as just south and west of I-205 southerly winds are developing.
    [Surface gradients]
    As of 5 PM
    PDX-DLS: -1.7
    PDS-EUG: -2.2
    Finally the southerly surface gradient has surpassed the offshore gradient meaning the southerly winds are beginning to win out.
    My guess is areas east of I-205 will begin to see southerlies around 7-8 PM.

  20. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Not surprisingly the 18Z is back to blah. Cooler overall but keeps the moisture in the 9″ rain for the run. Seasonal and moist. 🙂

  21. Danny Talsma says:

    Thanks for your responce. I’m 17 and am sort of new to the weather blog. I still trying to understand a lot but all of your advise helps.
    dancer330@gmail.com

  22. Danny Talsma says:

    Thanks for your responce. I’m 17 and am sort of new to the weather blog. I still trying to understand a lot but all of your advise helps.
    dancer330@gmail.com

  23. TriforceofEternity says:

    I have an essay book the GED teacher his having me study so I can understand the format of the standerd GED Writing test/Essay.
    I did good wording wise and puncuation/grammar.etc but I didn’t do the format good. I don’t know how Essays do their format.
    Back to the weather! :O
    60F here and very mild like it’s Hawaii or something. I am a bit worried with this mild/blah weather but we still have December.
    I believe 04 or 05 featured a cold spell in December from an inversion and it felt like snow weather and there was fog all day.

  24. TriforceofEternity says:

    I have an essay book the GED teacher his having me study so I can understand the format of the standerd GED Writing test/Essay.
    I did good wording wise and puncuation/grammar.etc but I didn’t do the format good. I don’t know how Essays do their format.
    Back to the weather! :O
    60F here and very mild like it’s Hawaii or something. I am a bit worried with this mild/blah weather but we still have December.
    I believe 04 or 05 featured a cold spell in December from an inversion and it felt like snow weather and there was fog all day.

  25. TV Weather Producer says:

    The KOMO Weeather blog is a good research for stuff. They also post it on Ch. 2’s site in Portland.

  26. TV Weather Producer says:

    The KOMO Weeather blog is a good research for stuff. They also post it on Ch. 2’s site in Portland.

  27. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    GREAT post Brian, that really helps to explain what the MJO does for sure! I could never really find a way to explain it, lol. Thanks!

  28. Brian in Bellingham says:

    One more post about the MJO. KOMO TV in Seattle has a weather blog by Scott Sistek, and he wrote about it today and tried to put it into terms us amateurs can understand.
    http://www.komonews.com/weather/blog/33932409.html
    “While that sounds like perhaps the latest sports game on Playstation, the Madden-Julian oscillation is actually a pattern in the Pacific where you get really big blobs of tropical moisture followed by big areas where there’s no tropical moisture, and this alternating pattern then moves around the globe.
    Think of it like sitting on the side of a huge roundabout and watching cars pass by, and each car’s color alternates between blue and yellow — blue is “big blobs of tropical moisture” and yellow is “big areas where there’s no tropical moisture” and how they travel in a circle around and around.
    This alternating pattern is evident around the globe, and has about a 30-60 day cycle, and within the cycle, there are times the “MDO” is going strong and times when it is very weak and hardly noticeable.
    Anyway, we’re in a strong phase now, and the jet stream has tapped into a bulk of that tropical moisture south of Hawaii and is sending it our way”

  29. Brian in Bellingham says:

    One more post about the MJO. KOMO TV in Seattle has a weather blog by Scott Sistek, and he wrote about it today and tried to put it into terms us amateurs can understand.
    http://www.komonews.com/weather/blog/33932409.html
    “While that sounds like perhaps the latest sports game on Playstation, the Madden-Julian oscillation is actually a pattern in the Pacific where you get really big blobs of tropical moisture followed by big areas where there’s no tropical moisture, and this alternating pattern then moves around the globe.
    Think of it like sitting on the side of a huge roundabout and watching cars pass by, and each car’s color alternates between blue and yellow — blue is “big blobs of tropical moisture” and yellow is “big areas where there’s no tropical moisture” and how they travel in a circle around and around.
    This alternating pattern is evident around the globe, and has about a 30-60 day cycle, and within the cycle, there are times the “MDO” is going strong and times when it is very weak and hardly noticeable.
    Anyway, we’re in a strong phase now, and the jet stream has tapped into a bulk of that tropical moisture south of Hawaii and is sending it our way”

  30. N3EG says:

    I remember one year in Longview seeing a 10 foot snow level…yes, snow was sticking 10 feet up the hill.

  31. J.R. via G1 says:

    seems like we always have those situations tho where if ur below 500 u just get the mix… which sucks hope we dont get that this year. last year on xmas i remember at my 250 elevation had nothing but rain but at my parents house at 550ft it was a winter wonderland

  32. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The one thing that still has me smarting last year was the forecasting accuracy as to how low the snow would go. It used be in the past if the predicted snow level was 500′ you could pretty much bet most the metro would end up with some sort of snow.
    Last year they were nailing the 200′ to 250′ snow levels spot on. As forecasted only the lower hills got snow with the valley floor getting nothing but cold rain or snow/rain mix.
    That drove me nuts… Most of us here on the blog kept scoffing at the forecasts for 250′ snow levels. Low and behold they kept hitting the head on the nail.
    I only hope we don’t have numerous situations like that again this year.

  33. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Still sitting at 49.6 here
    Easterly flow did not end as expected.
    We have seen this happen many a time where the warm front just got “hung up” to our south.
    I do see Salem is up to 61, Aurora 59, and Hillsboro 57 all with a south wind. As usual the south wind will overtake the west side of PDX before it finally wins out east of I-5/I-205 and the near the Gorge.
    It’s a matter of time until it manages its way north switching PDX from the cooler offshore flow to a warmer mild southerly flow.
    [Surface gradients]
    As of 12 PM
    PDX-DLS: -3.2
    PDX-EUG: -1.6

  34. J.R. via G1 says:

    yup -8 can be the magic number

  35. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    If you want a SURE bet for sea level sticking snow, get yourself a -9 or -10 at 850 🙂

  36. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    If you want a SURE bet for sea level sticking snow, get yourself a -9 or -10 at 850 🙂

  37. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Ryan, if I remember right -8 could get us snow down to sea level if ALL the right ingredients are there…

%d bloggers like this: