1st November Storm Approaching

IR2MFR As Rob Martin mentioned in the addendum to the previous post, a nice little system moves inland today and tonight.  A surface low offshore deepens nicely as it tracks across Oregon the next 18 hours or so.  The GFS is farther north with the low moving from SW Oregon to around Pasco.  The NAM stays in the southern half of the state.  What captured my interest this morning was the satellite imagery and the position of the low.  I think we're going to have a period of moderate to heavy rainfall during the evening across N.W. Oregon.  as the northwest sector of the storm moves overhead.  I can see .50" or so falling in just 3-5 hours.  Strong northwesterly flow developing at the same time should really dump heavy rain on the foothills of the Cascades and snow IN the Cascades as well.  Government Camp may be very messy by 10pm or so, and Timberline should be blizzardlike up there at 6,000'. By morning the snow level should be around 3,000' or a little below.

Depending on how much the low deepens, it's also going to get quite windy through Central & North Central Oregon, along with the east end of the Columbia River Gorge as well.  That will be from strong west and southwest wind pulling in behind the low…Mark Nelsen

64 Responses to 1st November Storm Approaching

  1. and f nate for not playing batum 2nd half we were up 10 with him and then dont play him again ya ur smart. and outlaw cant even remember how to dribble anymore and so many other things he sucks at….
    46.9 and it looks like instead of cars to get around maybe boats?…..

  2. TriforceofEternity says:

    Pah! That’s for Seattle far away from here, I don’t think there is much worry for here, They are going to hog it all.

  3. TriforceofEternity says:

    I still think it’s better it’s ‘boring weather’ now then have it in January. Zonal Flow January of 09!

  4. boydo3 says:

    Ryan, last Nov had only about .5 in of rain in the first ten days. We did have a wetter Oct and some frosty nites but days were still pretty warm. Take a look at the Oregon Climate Service records. Unfortunately we no longer have the talented George Taylor running the show there. But records are still being kept. http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/index.html

  5. TV Weather Producer says:

    The Oregon AMS is going to have a speaker talking about the MJO. Details still TBA. I just wanted to get that word out since its being discussed in here !

  6. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    4 PM observations show the warm front still off to our SW.
    Wind switch to southerly is noticeable along the southern Oregon Coast. Also the EUG-MFR surface gradient show increasing southerly flow where as PDX-EUG still indicates weak northerly flow meaning the warm front is still yet to arrive.

  7. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    18Z GFS is alot warmer and really really wet.

  8. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The only bummer is that it wasn’t really a “holograph” per-say. By definition a holograph is an image projected into 3D space that interacts with another object.
    From what I understand CNN’s “holograph” was a green screen/super imposed 3D image on the video feed. There was no actual holograph in the CNN studio.

  9. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I think we have all been teased by the models showing frequent long-range (lala) cold air intrusions early on during the past few years. Heck wasn’t last year the year we had sub freezing temps for Halloween?
    It just feels like a slow start compared to recent years. 🙂

  10. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Icekeeg, you are correct, models can surprise us at any time. However, right now I actually thing the models have a very good handle on the next 7-10 days, looks like pretty good agreement that we’ll be in a zonal flow especially based on the 12z euro and GFS. The only surprise I can see coming out of that is a developing low moving by quickly to our north and kicking up some good winds…
    Yeah Ryan, The cooler temperature trend is just a sign of the season…I don’t see any type of pattern developing right now that would be getting us colder due to weather patterns themselves…18z might show something different of course.
    I think everyone is just going to explode the first time we see the models showing any type of cold air intrusion…
    I am very encouraged by the upcoming wet november though…the jet stream is suppose to be raging right now so a wet, seasonal November does not bother me at all. If we get to the middle of December and no model has even hinted at cold air dipping south, then I will start to get worried…I would even go for a lala land tease right now!!!

  11. IceKeeg - workin' in Tigard says:

    the devil’s in the details with this kind of a pattern, it seems – even if the models look dull at the moment, so long as they generally support an “active” flow of systems entering the NW, sometimes interesting details can develop fairly last minute. That seemed to be the case last year as we kept our cool, wet flow – sometimes with only a day or two’s notice, we’d be talking about the possibility of low snow levels, or systems positioning themselves to give us some good wind.
    Just my take, at least, with the caveat that I know next to nothing about model reading. :o)
    Looks like a good batch of rain on its way per radar.

  12. Runrain says:

    Thanks Luvry. Just saw something on the wx discussion that caught my eye, I guess. Its that “wishful” time of year!!

  13. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Yeah Mike, unfortunately a lot of that is gonna melt or get rained away (is that a technical term, lol) in the next 3-4 days before somewhat cooler air filters in again. Behind the current warm front over us, we will be in fairly mild air until about saturday when the cold front finally makes it through.
    Run, 12z shows nothing close to a windstorm around that timeframe…there was something showing yesterday that was worth keeping the very corner of your eye on but it’s gone.

  14. luvry (Aloha) says:

    Kudos to Mark for trusting us…see Mark we are somewhat civil 🙂
    41.4 and partly cloudy right now.

  15. TriforceofEternity says:

    Darn you are lower I am at 42.3F now with a clearing in the sky only around our house. Weird.

  16. Matthew - WAPilot Castle Rock, WA says:

    Brrr.. Showers and 38 currently. Chilly evening.

  17. TriforceofEternity says:

    Unfortunatly from a line between downtown Salem and the foot-hills (Which I believe includes Stayton/Sublimity we don’t get the sharp drop in temps during a cold shower.
    It’s amazing how Auroa dropped to 39F under a heavy shower about an hour away from me.

  18. TriforceofEternity says:

    Mostly clear out my window facing north. 🙂 43.9F

  19. Nof out near Carlton says:

    Mark, As long as everything remains repectful keep it open! Everyone get your ballots in! Should be an interesting night….spooky times were experiancing

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