Rain on the Way

Snapshot A quiet evening out there…I made a quick trip to a very large warehouse store to buy a very large pumpkin pie for the crew (and me of course).  Exciting life that I lead…

What a nightmare for forecasting today.  Those of you on the east side think we overdid the cloud forecast, those on the west side of town wondered why it took until 2-3pm for the clouds to dissipate.  By sunset the clouds were just barely clearing all the way down near Salem!  Looks like fog is now developing over parts of the Willamette Valley.  McMinnville has some mist at 8pm.

Quite a forecast debate in the weather center tonight.  I want to go partly cloudy at worst because I have a "feeling" that the clouds will be thin and high tomorrow.  Couple that with easterly surface flow and mild southerly flow just above, and I figure we have a 65 degree day.  Drew (and current IR satellite imagery) says a pretty solid high cloud cover tomorrow with highs only in the lower 60's at best.  No libations are bet on this, just my pride, and the chance for Drew to say I TOLD YOU SO for 8 hours tomorrow afternoon & evening.  We're staying with my forecast mainly because we don't want to change something like 10 different graphics.

Easier forecast for Friday and beyond…WET!  It sure doesn't really look stormy or exceedingly wet at least through the beginning of next week.  Remember the 1st week of November 2006?  Something like 5-6" of rain in the metro area and glacial outburst flooding on Mt. Hood.  A low of 63 degrees one day too!  Mark Nelsen

110 Responses to Rain on the Way

  1. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Currently getting some light rain.

  2. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Currently getting some light rain.

  3. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    sounds like some server somewhere ain’t happy…

  4. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    sounds like some server somewhere ain’t happy…

  5. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    It took me three attempts to get through on my last post.

  6. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Yeah Jesse, Matt Z had it dry on Wednesday also. I look at the 12z and 18z GFS and both had it raining and cool. NWS has a chance of rain and 53. Mark’s got it at 58 and milder with rain, so maybe it’s how you interpet the models or maybe they have more current model info.

  7. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Yeah Jesse, Matt Z had it dry on Wednesday also. I look at the 12z and 18z GFS and both had it raining and cool. NWS has a chance of rain and 53. Mark’s got it at 58 and milder with rain, so maybe it’s how you interpet the models or maybe they have more current model info.

  8. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Yeah Jesse, Matt Z had it dry on Wednesday also. I look at the 12z and 18z GFS and both had it raining and cool. NWS has a chance of rain and 53. Mark’s got it at 58 and milder with rain, so maybe it’s how you interpet the models or maybe they have more current model info.

  9. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Yes and it was/is eating posts.

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Yes

  11. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    well now that was wierd, i’ve been trying to post for awhile, and that one goes thru…..
    attempt 3…wow..the wind won, and with great special effects; pockets of warm air coming in with the east wind…

  12. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    well now that was wierd, i’ve been trying to post for awhile, and that one goes thru…..
    attempt 3…wow..the wind won, and with great special effects; pockets of warm air coming in with the east wind…

  13. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    is the blog broken?

  14. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    is the blog broken?

  15. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …second try…wow, part 2…the wind won, with some great special effects; getting a lot of warm pockets of air coming thru from the east…

  16. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    With low pressure deepening overnight well offshore to our southwest I do think the east winds may increase all night as well.
    Recent pressure trends show this.
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 8 PM
    PDX-DLS: -5.2
    TTD-DLS: -6.0
    OTH-GEG: -9.2
    Real good increases last hour

  17. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    With low pressure deepening overnight well offshore to our southwest I do think the east winds may increase all night as well.
    Recent pressure trends show this.
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 8 PM
    PDX-DLS: -5.2
    TTD-DLS: -6.0
    OTH-GEG: -9.2
    Real good increases last hour

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