Lets See Some Snow…and Rain in the Valley

Cascades7day

Good early morning all.  So the weak upper level trough is moving a bit to the north, into our area this afternoon into tomorrow.  This will affect the coast cloud layer a bit, with morning fog and cloudy skies for the day before it moves inland on Wednesday.  I don’t see a strong chance of precip with it before the ridge rebuilds as the trough moves east.  It’s a quick move.  As Halloween comes we will see a long filament trough move in, pushing the ridge out of the area, creating a wet forecast.  (I also see a hint of a cut off low and kicker trough set up, up stream…yay).  Yesterday it looked like we might see some showers late Thursday, but now I think it will hold off just in time for trick-or-treating. 

I am happy to see the possibility of snow for the cascades late this weekend into early next week.  I am getting the ski jitters! -Rob Martin

79 Responses to Lets See Some Snow…and Rain in the Valley

  1. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    We learned two things tonight…
    #1 – The Lakers are THAT good.
    #2 – The Blazers have a LONG way to go.
    Let’s hope Oden isn’t injured again. He’s spent the entire 3rd quarter in the locker room getting X-Rays of his foot. Please don’t let us have Sam Bowie 2.0.
    Alas nothing interesting in the weather department here.

  2. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    We learned two things tonight…
    #1 – The Lakers are THAT good.
    #2 – The Blazers have a LONG way to go.
    Let’s hope Oden isn’t injured again. He’s spent the entire 3rd quarter in the locker room getting X-Rays of his foot. Please don’t let us have Sam Bowie 2.0.
    Alas nothing interesting in the weather department here.

  3. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Well my enthusiasm and excitement has been replaced with near embarrassment. We look completely out of sync. Most possessions we were dribbling around or double teamed with 2-4 seconds on the shot clock looking puzzled. We aren’t even competing. Luckily there is a 2nd half and we had better see more effort, better execution, and definitely better rebounding.
    Back to weather.
    47.7
    92% humidity

  4. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Pretty awful play from the Blazers so far. 17% from the field and Oden is already out early thanks to a pair of dumb fouls.
    Hopefully they can get their act together and start playing some basketball.

  5. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Pretty awful play from the Blazers so far. 17% from the field and Oden is already out early thanks to a pair of dumb fouls.
    Hopefully they can get their act together and start playing some basketball.

  6. TV Weather Producer says:

    Buff wild wings is packed with blazer fans. It’s crisp downtown.

  7. Tyler says:

    I have never seen this mistake from the NWS…winds light and gusty.

  8. Tyler says:

    I have never seen this mistake from the NWS…winds light and gusty.

  9. Tyler says:

    I have never seen this mistake from the NWS…winds light and gusty.

  10. Tyler says:

    I have never seen this mistake from the NWS…winds light and gusty.

  11. TriforceofEternity says:

    55F and mostly sunny with a cloud deck to the west. Fog perhaps?

  12. TriforceofEternity says:

    55F and mostly sunny with a cloud deck to the west. Fog perhaps?

  13. TriforceofEternity says:

    The organ is still playing it sounds like. 🙂 http://www.sequinsbyeileen.com/midi/ballgame.mid

  14. TriforceofEternity says:

    The organ is still playing it sounds like. 🙂 http://www.sequinsbyeileen.com/midi/ballgame.mid

  15. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    That’s awesome, JR.

  16. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    That’s awesome, JR.

  17. GO BLAZERS

    MY SIGN IS ON THE ROOF!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. GO BLAZERS

    MY SIGN IS ON THE ROOF!!!!!!!!!!!!

  19. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    While riding home it looked like there was fog up against the coast range by Forest Grove. Can anyone verify that?

  20. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    While riding home it looked like there was fog up against the coast range by Forest Grove. Can anyone verify that?

  21. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    After closely analyzing both NCEP 12z/18z loops here are the key difference I see.
    [My Analysis]
    12z
    [Friday, October 31st -60 hour FCST Surface]

    A low spins up off the southern Oregon coast near 140W, 38 N. This low pulls due northward with dominant SW-S flow in its wake. Appears the 500mb trough axis is just near 130 W, but not favorable for any wind event/storm threat. Left exit jet as the system rounds the trough doesn’t appear to exceed 100-110kts.
    ——————————————————————————–
    18z
    Wednesday, October 29th -18hr FCST Surface]

    System development roughly same area then tracks north around 138-140 W. Dramatic differences with the 500mb trough placement. As Steve Pierce has alluded to often in a 1-2 punch the first low can serve to carve out the trough placement pulling the axis closer to the 130 W line.
    This is exactly what occurs.
    [Saturday, November 1st -90hr FCST 500mb]

    Trough axis pushes closer to the Coast and near the critical 130 W line.
    [Sunday November 2nd -102hr FCST Surface]

    A 978-980mb low swings a bit closer to the 130 W line. It does again as its predecessor had done pulls due north out of harms way. Left exit jet shown as weak with 90-100kts.
    My thoughts are we need to just keep an eye on things. If the 00z continue a theme of a tandem of lows like this then it could very easily swing the 500mb trough axis very close or inside 130 W as the 1st low heads north and the 2nd low dumbbells around the bottom of the trough.

  22. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    After closely analyzing both NCEP 12z/18z loops here are the key difference I see.
    [My Analysis]
    12z
    [Friday, October 31st -60 hour FCST Surface]

    A low spins up off the southern Oregon coast near 140W, 38 N. This low pulls due northward with dominant SW-S flow in its wake. Appears the 500mb trough axis is just near 130 W, but not favorable for any wind event/storm threat. Left exit jet as the system rounds the trough doesn’t appear to exceed 100-110kts.
    ——————————————————————————–
    18z
    Wednesday, October 29th -18hr FCST Surface]

    System development roughly same area then tracks north around 138-140 W. Dramatic differences with the 500mb trough placement. As Steve Pierce has alluded to often in a 1-2 punch the first low can serve to carve out the trough placement pulling the axis closer to the 130 W line.
    This is exactly what occurs.
    [Saturday, November 1st -90hr FCST 500mb]

    Trough axis pushes closer to the Coast and near the critical 130 W line.
    [Sunday November 2nd -102hr FCST Surface]

    A 978-980mb low swings a bit closer to the 130 W line. It does again as its predecessor had done pulls due north out of harms way. Left exit jet shown as weak with 90-100kts.
    My thoughts are we need to just keep an eye on things. If the 00z continue a theme of a tandem of lows like this then it could very easily swing the 500mb trough axis very close or inside 130 W as the 1st low heads north and the 2nd low dumbbells around the bottom of the trough.

  23. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I also do not like how there are such discrepancies from model run to model run. That is why I really never model ride when it comes to my predictions, ect. 18z has opened the door for such discussions though and the 00z will definitely help that along. Hopefully the WRF-GFS 00z run will be operating also.

  24. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    FYI, word is Outlaw starts for Batum tonight.

  25. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Yeah, Jamie deserves a ring. Still picthing at 45?!! And he got a win in the world series. Pretty good stuff. Always seemed like a class act when he was at Seattle.
    I haven’t been this excited about the Blazers in a long time as well. Just making the playoffs in the Western Conference should be a challange.
    Ok this is a weather blog, right? So the 18z has a 977mb low around 130w in the Saturday-Sunday time frame. Flow looks pretty progressive too. Noticed rainfall was back up over 4″ in the 16 day. And it definitly looked cool at the end of the run with NW flow. I know it’s not the best run so let’s see what the 00z has to say later tonight.

  26. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Yeah, Jamie deserves a ring. Still picthing at 45?!! And he got a win in the world series. Pretty good stuff. Always seemed like a class act when he was at Seattle.
    I haven’t been this excited about the Blazers in a long time as well. Just making the playoffs in the Western Conference should be a challange.
    Ok this is a weather blog, right? So the 18z has a 977mb low around 130w in the Saturday-Sunday time frame. Flow looks pretty progressive too. Noticed rainfall was back up over 4″ in the 16 day. And it definitly looked cool at the end of the run with NW flow. I know it’s not the best run so let’s see what the 00z has to say later tonight.

  27. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …Phillies have to win…Mr Moyer needs a ring…..

  28. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Super long time since I’ve been excited about a Blazer season as well. I will be anchored in front of the TV come 7:30. I gotta get to the gym early tonight so I don’t miss tip.
    Re: D-Rays. I saw the Rays melting down long before they got the the series. They are just too young to be a real contender right now to win the Series. Of course I’m also bitter because the Yankees didn’t make the post season. Yes I’m a Yankee fan and have been since I was a weeee tike thanks to Donnie Baseball (You may lambaste me now).

  29. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Hmmmm, very interesting developments on the 18z. Nothing big yet but this run just threw in a 980 low around 130 W heading due N…that was not there on the 12z…I’ve read that models have problems predicting lows like this. These lows can come in packages of two, one weaker one ahead of a bomb…I also know that bombs can show up about 24-36 hours after the first low out of nowhere. The thing I don’t see…still no strong exit region jet for the storm…but that could change with one run of the models. Crazy how one run can get a 980 storm running due N when the previous one didn’t even have that low…that being said, these lows can also be underplayed by the GFS… we should keep one eye peeled on this puppy, again, nothing big showing yet but an interesting feature on the 18z.

  30. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Hmmmm, very interesting developments on the 18z. Nothing big yet but this run just threw in a 980 low around 130 W heading due N…that was not there on the 12z…I’ve read that models have problems predicting lows like this. These lows can come in packages of two, one weaker one ahead of a bomb…I also know that bombs can show up about 24-36 hours after the first low out of nowhere. The thing I don’t see…still no strong exit region jet for the storm…but that could change with one run of the models. Crazy how one run can get a 980 storm running due N when the previous one didn’t even have that low…that being said, these lows can also be underplayed by the GFS… we should keep one eye peeled on this puppy, again, nothing big showing yet but an interesting feature on the 18z.

  31. EA_TTD says:

    I too am excited about the Blazers. Appointment viewing for the first time since the 2000 season, meaning that I will plan my evenings around games. That said, we are a young team that will need time to grow and gel together. Anything above a 7 or 8 seed would be surpassing my expectations. I think that as the season tips tonight, we could all stand to ramp down our expectations just a little. By the looks of some comments, we’re one blown ACL away from a Prozac outbreak reminiscent of the winter of 2007-08.

  32. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Yup Rob, I bet this blog becomes a blazer blog in between 7:30 and 11, hahahahaha.
    I hope Oden rejects the **** out of kobe…and follows it up with a monstorous jam over Bynum! I hope LA has fully reinforced thier backboards, I really thing we are going to see some powerful dunks from Oden tonight, the nations eyes will be on him.

  33. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Yup Rob, I bet this blog becomes a blazer blog in between 7:30 and 11, hahahahaha.
    I hope Oden rejects the **** out of kobe…and follows it up with a monstorous jam over Bynum! I hope LA has fully reinforced thier backboards, I really thing we are going to see some powerful dunks from Oden tonight, the nations eyes will be on him.

  34. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Rob, I am a baseball fan as well and I have been rooting for the Rays all the way. Who wouldn’t root for a worst to first team like this knocking off the heavyweights along the way? The Rays have a great chance to be a dominant team for years to come.
    It does however look like the Phillies are and were more prepared less jitters and just “have what it takes” to get the job done. Howard is now beginning to lock in and their confidence is a mile high.
    BLAZERS! It has been a long time since I have been this excited, this amped, this pumped, this much enthusiasm at the start of the season. What a tough challenge from the get go! If we play solid D, rebound, and execute we can win this game.
    Back to weather…
    [Surface gradients]
    As of 2 PM
    PDX-DLS: -1.3
    TTD-DLS: -1.8
    Gradients are behaving as expecting with offshore flow slowly fading away. I looked at the NCEP 12z and I do see a pattern change, but it doesn’t look as wet (especially in the long-term) as the 00z did. At least seeing some frontal systems make progress inside of 128-130 W is refreshing. The WRF-GFS page is out of commission and says this.
    WRF-GFS runs is experiencing hardware problems. The 2008102812 WRF-GFS extended and 4-km runs are delayed several hours, but are expected to complete normally. The hardware will be replaced by the afternoon of 10/29/2008. Until then, delays and some missing graphics could occur. Sorry for the inconvenience.
    Bummer….

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