Dry Outlook

Snapshot  The big story as I return from some vacation time this evening is the dry and mild looking weather maps over the next 7+ days.  Hard to find much of any rainfall as we head towards the end of October.  Yet this is the time of year that rainfall really starts to pickup.  The last week of October and 1st week of November generally sees a tremendous increase in rainfall most years as we plunge quickly in the rainy season.  November is only slightly drier than December, making it the 2nd wettest month of the year here in Portland.  But basically November, December, and January are the 3 "big" months for rainfall.  By February the heavy rains of late Fall through early winter are fading a bit, interspersed with a few dry spells, making it somewhat drier than the other 3 months.

Not this year though…some sort of upper level ridging should sit near the West Coast over the next week or so.  This will add to the very nice (boring for the wx geeks) Fall we've had so far.  I didn't do too much last week on my time off, but there was plenty of sunshine for hikes yard/garden work.  Couldn't ask for much more in mid October!

Surface high pressure develops overhead tonight and tomorrow, then shifts east of the Cascades quickly late tomorrow afternoon.  The easterly gradient across the Cascades (and through the Gorge) builds up dramatically by late evening.  We're into that time of year where an easterly wind can begin anytime of the day, not just in the late night and early morning hours.  So I think the wind will blow all night tomorrow night east of I-205 within a few miles of the Columbia River.  WRF-GFS peaks out around 8 millibars by Wednesday morning PDX-DLS.  That should give us the first 50-55 mph gusts of the season at the west end of the Gorge.  That'll take a few more leaves off the trees out there.  You'll gain a few leaves in you live in Beaverton!  Mark Nelsen

35 Responses to Dry Outlook

  1. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    long range forecasts indicated really heavy rain!!!
    hours 192-384

  2. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …the wind is starting….

  3. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Not our region, but this is very impressive.
    The MONSTER low I have been watching southwest of the Aleutians is now projected to be down to 955mb!
    Look at this buoy report
    Station 46071 – Western Aleutians
    Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.49 in (965mb)
    Pressure Tendency: -0.46 in (Falling Rapidly)
    Largest drop: -0.52 in
    That’s one heck of a pressure drop.

  4. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    I liked the 18z because it had more rain later and hinted at cooler temps at the very end. Also, if I’m remembering correctly it brought the rain back around the first vs. the third.

  5. luvry, #7 cause mback missed by 1...guess I missed by 2...aspire to be #1 tho... says:

    lol Rob, she sometimes wonders what’d I’d do without the laptop in front of me, lol.
    Weather Donk, the big wigs will all be there again! Mark will be presenting, I’ve heard stephanie is going to be there, but I’m not sure about Drew. I’m sure the regulars will be there, Matt Z, maybe sussman? TV Weather producer can shed more light on this…Look back to yesterday’s blog, TV weather producer and Steve P posted on it. There’s been plenty of hype about it!

  6. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Thanks, Luvry, and it is nice to be back…. Just needed the break. I’ll only be on the Blog.
    Yeah I did talk to your g/f… I didn’t know it was her. I told her how you geek out over the 12z/00z and that you often cheat on her with la-la land teases. She was puzzled….
    Okay no I didn’t….
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 7 PM
    PDX-DLS: -0.5
    TTD-DLS: -1.1
    OTH-GEG: -6.3

  7. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Glad to have you back posting Rob…
    BTW, my gf mentioned you pinged me on MSN the other night, sorry I missed ya!

  8. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I MAY need to bump the timing up sooner..

  9. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    So I took a week off… from here, from everything.
    I think it was for the best….
    Of course knowing a mini east wind event was unfolding I had to come back for it.
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 6 PM
    PDX-DLS: -0.0
    TTD-DLS: -0.6

  10. gratefulduck (weather blog lurker) says:

    rob.. i’m with you.. Josh gets all the good cold and snow… bast@$&.. LOL

  11. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    snow stuck eye needle
    eye yi yi yi yi yi yi
    who needs waterboards

  12. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Bait and Switch, Bait and Switch.

  13. time frame on peak wind gusts rob?

  14. Jake says:

    I know it has been posted before, but what day and time is the weather meeting at OMSI? Thanks.

  15. offroadjosh(7miles west of kalispell montana) says:

    had heavy snow today!!

  16. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Yup, Rob, you’ll get it good tonight!

  17. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Nice crisp Fall day today.
    54.7 here
    East wind is just about to commence with TTD-DLS now turning offshore.
    I will look forward to it becoming gusty and hopefully roaring as it slams into my house after midnight tonight.

  18. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    because none of the ensembles show the cold air coming in here, I just have this feeling the 18z operational will back off again, UNLESS the 12z operational is picking up on a trend that the ensembles didn’t…doubt it though.

  19. meros from orchards says:

    Beautiful here too….53F…nearly calm…

  20. Danny Talsma says:

    Plaease e-mail me with winter weather predictions for portland.

  21. JohnD says:

    Yeah, I agree. Ridging now is WAY better than later on. There have been many winters with signifcant events early completely shut down later by the sometimes prolonged ridging phenomenon. Mild and dry for weeks on end. Makes you climb the walls. Of course WHERE the “ridge” sets up is paramount. Over the Dateline and we are ripe for COLD and snow. I always pull for that. Plus I never get really excited until AFTER Halloween when the “Big 4” potential winter weather months have finally arrived. Best to enjoy this beautiful fall weather while we have it!

  22. Aleta- west gresham says:

    It’s beautiful out here. I can see the fog bank to the west but wonderful blue skies above. Probably about 51 or so out here.

  23. wish i could go to the weather meeting but i gotta work and i have tried almost everything to get out of working so i could go to this. but i cant 😦

  24. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Absolutely looking forward to seeing all of you and everyones’ presentations. Take a look at Meadows this morning, just gorgeous. Pity it’s not going to last.
    I’ve been looking at past years where we have had dry Septembers and Octobers to see what happened later in the winter. If I can make sense of the data, I’ll post it during lunch.

  25. TriforceofEternity says:

    Anti spam filter blocks me out.

  26. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Last year was the year of the Mega-Low that anchored itself in Alaska and never moved south. This year could be the year of the Mega-Ridge that never moves east.
    Hopefully this winter isn’t another ultimate fail.
    Though I can’t really complain about the weather… Foggy in the morning temps near 40 with partly cloudy/sunny afternoons in the 60’s is pretty much perfect weather in my book.

  27. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I can’t remember a pattern like this throughout October and likely into early November with an offshore ridge around 130-137 W, and another ridge over the central Pacific. It’s going to take something huge to break this pattern. IMO it isn’t going to happen until early-mid November.
    Well at least the moderate-strong east winds will bring a chance out on this side of town.
    I do see a monster of a low is rapidly developing WSW of the Aleutians.
    12z NCEP/NOAA forecast model

    Projects the low to bomb down to an astounding 947mb! nearing the Aleutians. Not the time to be a crab boat fisherman.
    Another low is intensifying nicely in the Gulf of Alaska projected to deepen to 963mb.
    Surface gradients are slowly turning flat as they switch offshore later today.

  28. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Clear Skies and 35.3° this morning. Going to be a beautiful day!

  29. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Sorry Luvry,
    Went to bed after my post. Yeah! I’ll be there along with my father.

  30. offroadjosh(7miles west of kalispell montana) says:

    rain and 45mph winds last night… then snow.. then rain.. then snow… now 32.2 all roads are reallly wet… gunna be icy.

  31. TriforceofEternity says:

    I wonder if this ridge/High pressure thingy will squash any predictins the AMS even has 4 this winter?
    Winter better crack it’s doors open as November gives us big whooper rains usually. 🙂

  32. TV Weather Producer says:

    Mark’s presentation is kept under lock and key. Its always one of the two highlights of the meeting !

  33. TV Weather Producer says:

    From the Oregon AMS…Where I take over the office of President in November. Courtesy of Drew Jackson !
    The 16th Annual “What Will the Winter Be Like” meeting, sponsored by the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, will be held THIS FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24TH, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM. All are welcome, the meeting is free to attend, and no RSVP is necessary. If you’re interested in hearing experts’ predictions about this coming winter, all you have to do is show up and listen!
    A reminder about the specifics:
    When: Friday, October 24th, 10:00 AM until 12:00 PM
    Where: OMSI Auditorium (enter OMSI at the “side” entrance north of the main entrance)
    Cost: FREE (but for Chapter members, it’s a good time to pay your annual $7 dues!)
    10 am – Opening Remarks – Jim Todd (OMSI)
    10:10 am – Opening Remarks – Kyle Dittmer (OR-AMS President)
    10:15 am – Review of 2007-2008 Winter Weather – Mark Nelsen (FOX-12)
    Winter Prediction Presentations:
    10:30 am – Kyle Dittmer
    10:50 am – Pete Parsons
    11:10 am – Steve Todd
    11:30 am – George Taylor
    11:50 am – Closing Remarks
    I hope to see you there!
    Drew Jackson
    Secretary, Oregon Chapter of the AMS

  34. Mark Nelsen says:

    A preview? That would imply that I’ve STARTED to put it together. So that would be a big no.

  35. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    Wow need things to pick up so i can do my shadow hours want to do it when the weather is intresting come on winter give me something

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