Snapshot A nice flow of cool polar maritime air is headed out of the Gulf of Alaska…into the Pacific Northwest.  A cold front is getting organized (slightly) around 130W right now.  It's actually more of a solid line of showers than a large area of solid precipitation.  This arrives over us mid-morning tomorrow.  The combination of the showers, cloud cover, and colder atmosphere arriving overhead should give us a very chilly day Thursday.  This is a "one-shot" deal for rainfall;  the rain is gone by tomorrow evening, replaced by a much drier northerly low-level flow.  This means more sunshine for Friday, and of course a chilly start Friday morning as well.

It still looks good for a frost most areas Friday night, at least for most areas that don't get frost tomorrow night.  Okay, I'll make a few predictions for lowest either Friday or Saturday morning:  HIO=27, PDX=34, VUO=30, TTD=32.  Anyone else want to take a stab at it?

We should get a pretty quick rebound of temps Saturday PM through Monday as 850mb temps rise and we get a little offshore flow.  Dry weather until at least Tuesday when westerly flow sags back down over the Pacific Northwest.  Right now next week's systems are looking pretty weak and nothing to write home about, although the Mark Nelsen Vacation Rule applies for next week.  Maybe a surprise storm?  Mark

197 Responses to

  1. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Your welcome,
    Yeah, that does look suspicious at the beginning.
    Currently 40.1 DP 38, Fog here we come?
    Winter does rain a lot at Larry’s I think. Hey Larry did you get my e-mail?

  2. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Your welcome,
    Yeah, that does look suspicious at the beginning.
    Currently 40.1 DP 38, Fog here we come?
    Winter does rain a lot at Larry’s I think. Hey Larry did you get my e-mail?

  3. jacob BPA says:

    Good Evening All I head out friday night hoping to get a lot of data on this trip going to out collecting samples
    and going on some interesting data gathered by students at ULM or U of Louisiana Monroe with Global Warming VS Global Cooling
    and will hope to bring back something new to you all
    I leave you this

  4. jacob BPA says:

    Good Evening All I head out friday night hoping to get a lot of data on this trip going to out collecting samples
    and going on some interesting data gathered by students at ULM or U of Louisiana Monroe with Global Warming VS Global Cooling
    and will hope to bring back something new to you all
    I leave you this

  5. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …winter is as winter does….

  6. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Thanks Phil…
    Here is a timelapse I took this afternoon out my apartment window looking NNE. I swear there is a little rotation in the first part of the vid…but it could just be me. This is a large file size but should open quickly with DSL or cable.

  7. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Luvry, I wish I knew more about those indexes…
    Obviously if the PDO trend were to follow suit with those other analog years that would be great for our Winter.
    HIO Phil, nice pic. That shower looked fairly organized and didn’t look low-topped like the previous ones.

  8. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Luvry, I wish I knew more about those indexes…
    Obviously if the PDO trend were to follow suit with those other analog years that would be great for our Winter.
    HIO Phil, nice pic. That shower looked fairly organized and didn’t look low-topped like the previous ones.

  9. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    IR image

    The flow just abruptly changed to due north. Check out the IR loop.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common_full+12
    Perhaps even the slightly NNE component to the flow over southern British Columbia.

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    IR image

    The flow just abruptly changed to due north. Check out the IR loop.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common_full+12
    Perhaps even the slightly NNE component to the flow over southern British Columbia.

  11. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Nice pics. Looks like HIO winds the coldest low today. (gives prize to HIO Phil)
    47F and overcast.

  12. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Nice pics. Looks like HIO winds the coldest low today. (gives prize to HIO Phil)
    47F and overcast.

  13. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Nice pics. Looks like HIO winds the coldest low today. (gives prize to HIO Phil)
    47F and overcast.

  14. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Tyler, I got home right about 6pm and there were heavy showers around with hail mixed in at the time. I only had winds to 11mph, and a brief .05″ rainfall, but I would bet that those were outflow winds from the showers at the airport based on what I saw, and I’m sure they were legit. The link below is a picture of one of the cells. I thought it might have had some slight rotation but couldn’t confirm it.

    Tri-force, a pic of my car this morning.

  15. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Tyler, I got home right about 6pm and there were heavy showers around with hail mixed in at the time. I only had winds to 11mph, and a brief .05″ rainfall, but I would bet that those were outflow winds from the showers at the airport based on what I saw, and I’m sure they were legit. The link below is a picture of one of the cells. I thought it might have had some slight rotation but couldn’t confirm it.

    Tri-force, a pic of my car this morning.

  16. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Tyler, I got home right about 6pm and there were heavy showers around with hail mixed in at the time. I only had winds to 11mph, and a brief .05″ rainfall, but I would bet that those were outflow winds from the showers at the airport based on what I saw, and I’m sure they were legit. The link below is a picture of one of the cells. I thought it might have had some slight rotation but couldn’t confirm it.

    Tri-force, a pic of my car this morning.

  17. luvry says:

    Don’t know if it’s been reported but here we go anyways.
    PDO UPDATE:
    September PDO was -1.55! very nice…
    PDO STATS:
    This is the 8th lowest reading since 1900.
    Top 10 Record low September PDO’s:
    1933: -2.28
    1950: -2.14
    1961: -2.01
    1955: -1.95
    1948: -1.74
    1970: -1.67
    1962: -1.58
    2008**: -1.55
    1999: -1.53
    1928: -1.41
    NOTICE ANYTHING? All of the 7 colder years were 1970 or before J

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