Cool October Weather

Snapshot  Just got back from exercising inbetween shows tonight, followed by some fries and a turkey burger.  I lead a pretty exciting life…

As many of you have been discussing all day, we have a shot of chilly air (at least for this early in the season) headed towards us for the last few days of the week.  A deep trough of low pressure drops well down into the Western USA Thursday and Friday.  This is unusually far south (and deep) for this time of year.  Yes, I went back and looked at the first half of October 1985.  We have a neat little program that shows 500mb, 700mb, 850mb, and Surface maps, plus all the COOP data.  Well, the pattern around the 8th is almost exactly like this upcoming pattern.  I see the temp dropped to 30 at PDX and 22 at Hood River with the dry offshore flow behind the trough.  I'm getting old and conservative, so went with a low of 35 for PDX Saturday morning.  It sure could be lower.  Skies have to clear out, dewpoints have to drop at least close to 30, and we have to keep the east wind from picking up too much.  Looks like that MAY happen.

As the trough drops in, I'm really thinking Thursday will be a very chilly day.  We're forecasting only 54 for now, which would be a record low maximum for the day.  Strong onshore flow and a disturbance moving inland midday should keep us cloudy most or all of the day.  Snow should stick down to around 3,000' by Thursday evening too.  Wow, is it time to send reporters up to Government Camp to cover OCTOBER SNOWSTORM '08?  I'm exhausted just thinking about it…Mark Nelsen

45 Responses to Cool October Weather

  1. byrc says:

    Luvry:
    icecap.us is obviously an anti-global warming site. Not only that but your graph shows a drastic drop in the past year or two, but still shows a rising trend for the past 25 years. That shows a basic misunderstanding of global climate change, and therefore your inability to properly defend your position.
    Please, read scientific papers from one of the many universities that study this. It is hard seing the forest through the trees with this issue, but the forest is there, if you study from reliable sources.

  2. luvry says:

    byrc…wikipedia?
    Here’s my source graph:

    That shows the basics of my argument…
    Funny thing is,some scientists are predicting that this cooling will be severe, and is a greater threat to humanity than global warming ever was. Meanwhile, politicians are still obsessing about global warming.

  3. Ben Randall (weather reporter for tillamook) says:

    want is the chances for a snowy winter at the lowest elevations (500ft-sealevel)?

  4. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Hillsboro had a high of 49 on the 2nd of Oct for it’s earliest sub 50 high, and a low of 31 the same day. 1950, Western Climate Center Data.
    Byrc – changing our reliance from fossil fuels to renewable energy is in our best interests, on that I agree we can only win. Hopefully it can be done. As to GW, I think it’s about 50-50 human vs. nature, based on my own opinion as I’ve stated here before.
    Currently 45.8 DP 40. Still pretty much clear overhead here. Depending on when the clouds from the incomming system arrives, it may be a very chilly day tommorow.

  5. byrc says:

    mbac:
    Please remember, global climate change is a trend, not a year over year progression. Looking at this year and saying that there is more ice is true, but you have to look at the past 50 years to see the big picture, and thus the real issue.
    Luvry:
    Cite your sources. here is my citation : http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png
    A .6 deviation is HUGE considering this is average for the whole globe, not micro climates like the Northwest. Furthermore, this does not account for higher deviations in polar regions, which are more directly affected by climate change.
    The reason you are hearing more on both sides of the issue is the further politicization of the issue, the science is sound and fairly unchanged for 10 years. But both sides are getting more interest vested and thus more aggressive at proving the other side wrong.
    On a side note, I find it funny that every time we get a cold snap, everyone tends to quip, “well, so much for global warming.” It is this sort of misunderstanding of the issue that leads it to be discounted. Your view of global warming being year over year is as erroneous as someone saying that because there is a cold snap, it disproves the theory.
    Everyone who disagrees with global warming, please take 15 minutes and read up on it. Not on political sites or special interest sites but rather university sites, as well as organizations such as the UN and NATO. Maybe Mr. Nelsen could point out some good sites. This is not an issue of politics, it is an issue of preserving humanity and the natural world.

  6. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Burrrrrrrr it’s 47F and clear in this Global Warming world. Well if you want Global Warming go no further then Mark Nelsen’s weather blog.

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Stupid late 1940s records, not showing up in NWS data….
    Still, tomorrow’s cold should be impressive. And who knows, PDX could be colder than 53 😉

  8. Matthew - WAPilot Castle Rock, WA says:

    Thanks will check craigslist. Ya I heard wood pellets were running a bit high but I’m tired of getting the wood, spliting the wood, hauling it in and making a mess, worrying about if the fire pops, etc etc etc. Just cleaner burning and a lot less worry oh and my part on the “GW” thing too. LOL

  9. kirk says:

    41 already here

  10. kirk says:

    41 already here

  11. Big_D says:

    WHY ISN’T THE 7 DAY UPDATED????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????/

  12. Big_D says:

    WHY ISN’T THE 7 DAY UPDATED????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????/

  13. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    And the global warming temps flare again.

  14. Salemphil says:

    Matthew, have you checked out Craigslist for a used pellet stove?

  15. Luvry (tanasbourne) says:

    BYRC, do remember that the global temps are the exact same they were 30 years ago and are getting colder…all the while C02 is 800% higher? How does that happen if C02 has such a massive effect on global temps? We may or may not be causing global warming but we are turning the corner from a blatant yes argument to a 50/50 argument, in about 10 years, you may see a blatant…”remember when we worried about global warming?”
    Cyclical climate changes are a fact, it does happen. That is NOT a “hail mary.”
    10 years ago you would have barely seen any blatant biased opinions against GW, now you see them everywhere, why? because there is more and more evidence to prove that global warming is not as bad as everyone thought, if at all…and those that side with Al Gore are starting to quiet down and look for every little thing that says GW, even going as far to say that GW is causing the drop in global temps.
    Mother earth could shake her tailfeather tomorrow and we’d all be gone…we just have to remember that. I do believe we have an effect, but more so pollution in the soils/oceans/freshwater/city microclimates than on a massive atmospheric scale. Pollution in my eyes is much different than global warming…and yes, we could use a kick in the arse as far as keeping mother earth clean…but global warming…not proven, and there is more and more evidence every day for GW to be unproven. Just my 2 cents.

  16. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    What happened to the left sidebar on the NWS page??? or is it just my computer LOL

  17. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    😦

  18. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    (pastor shots self on live TV)

  19. byrc says:

    What are you talking about “global warming” could be over… look at these links:
    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=10&fd=08&fy=1980&sm=10&sd=08&sy=2008
    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=08&fy=1980&sm=12&sd=08&sy=2007
    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=03&fd=08&fy=1980&sm=03&sd=08&sy=2007
    Ice is coming later and melting earlier, and at it’s peak, there is less of it. Do not take my word for it, look at the data, change the dates around. This is not a scare tactic. This is not a political ideology thing. This is real /science/ telling us that the polar ice caps are melting. No matter the root cause, it can not be argued against human interaction at least exacerbating the situation. I understand the hesitation in blaming it all on man, but there is no point in doing a hail Mary pass saying that it is cyclical climate change.
    It is a value trade off, if we change and are wrong, we lose nothing, infact we gain in the fact that we have lessened our reliance on a dwindling fuel supply. If we continue at our current rate of consumption and emission, and global warming is man caused or man assisted, then we change the global climate, threaten life and throw the world into chaos. Think of it as Pascal’s wager, but with more at stake: the future of humanity.

  20. Matthew - WAPilot Castle Rock, WA says:

    Oh I might get in trouble for this post but it’s sorta weather related. Anyone know where I can get a nice pellet stove for a reasonable amount? Everyone that sells these things seem to sell them for the same price, I want a deal.

  21. Matthew - WAPilot Castle Rock, WA says:

    So looking at the ice maps, thanks by the way – very cool, can we say “global warming” is over? Still say this is a cycle thing and all these people making billions on another scare tactic should be shot but that’s just me.
    Anyway, great day for flying.. Head to the airport – working on my instrument rating so I can fly through all this crazy winter weather heading our way this year!
    BTW, 38.1 this morning.. Brrr.Our first 30 degree temp didn’t happen until Oct 24 last year.

  22. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    2000 Bay grad here!!!

  23. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    2000 Bay grad here!!!

  24. Luvry (tanasbourne) says:

    That is VERY impressive for AK. Thanks for the info Paul and Big D.
    Looks like the seaice buildup is coming along very nicely!

    Here’s a pic of it compared to two weeks ago, you can see the snowcover increase in the past two weeks is signifigant.
    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=24&fy=2008&sm=10&sd=08&sy=2008

  25. Luvry (tanasbourne) says:

    Wait, whoever said Jacob was in charge of delagating? hahahahahah 🙂
    Have fun down there BPA

  26. Big_D says:

    Paul – I was looking at the same thing. In an abbreviated period of record from 1962-1996, Arctic Village had never been as cold as -17 this early in the season.

  27. Big_D says:

    Paul – I was looking at the same thing. In an abbreviated period of record from 1962-1996, Arctic Village had never been as cold as -17 this early in the season.

  28. Gordon (near Ft. Vancouver High School) says:

    Ft Vancouver class of ’97 here.

  29. Gordon (near Ft. Vancouver High School) says:

    Ft Vancouver class of ’97 here.

  30. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Thanks for the link by the way.

  31. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Thanks for the link by the way.

  32. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Got down to 36 here near Silverton.

  33. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Got down to 36 here near Silverton.

  34. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Thanks Ryan,
    (For reminding me why I don’t live down there.)

  35. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Paul… Did you go to Fort for High School?
    I graduated back in 99 (actually just got my 10 year reunion notice). Go Trappers!!
    It’s about 80 degrees this morn in Anaheim/Brea. I heard they are talking about 101 in the valleys today.

  36. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Currently 35.0°, a little chilly.

  37. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Ya Ashley. The voice of reason on the blog lol…No, you caused quite stir on the blog, but by going conservative you were usually correct.

  38. Ashley Watson says:

    Hey all,
    Remember me!!! Yes it’s Ashley Watson the guy who always had something negative to say about your weather predictions. I don’t have much to say but that I moved to Klamath Falls and I am looking forward to seeing a few decent snowfalls this winter. As for the valley I think areosmith put it quite well when he said “same old story same old song and dance my friends”. My wife says you guys will probably get two feet of snow and we will get 2 inches. You never know!!!!!

  39. PaulB/Eugene says:

    http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html
    That is the link to the maps Steve posted.
    I also use this link:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/
    enjoy

  40. PaulB/Eugene says:

    http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html
    That is the link to the maps Steve posted.
    I also use this link:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/
    enjoy

  41. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Good call Mark. I see great minds think alike once again! 🙂
    SP

  42. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Good call Mark. I see great minds think alike once again! 🙂
    SP

  43. J.R. (Flavel St - 253ft) says:

    ya my online temp has 48.6 – http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110&month=10&day=7&year=2008
    other outside temp says 47.3

  44. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Cooling off fast out here tonite, already down to 47.4 here in Troutdale.

  45. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    First yes I win finally

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