Big Storm, Long Ways Away

Snapshot Quite a deep storm heading into the Northern edge of Vancouver Island tonight.  The trailing cold front is approaching the coast line right now…not looking real impressive.  We should get a nice burst of rainfall overnight with it.

New 00z NAM is quite chilly for the trough Thursday and Friday, just like the 12 & 18z GFS was.  Looks like a nice little burst of cold air is coming for the end of the work week.  Time to bring in the last of the beans, cucumbers, and squash don't you think? 

We're a bit busy this evening due to a computer upgrade this afternoon.  We're still putting out fires, like computers that aren't talking to each other correctly and graphics that look squished like pancakes.  We're lurching from one "crisis" here in the weather center to the next, all the while trying to avoid glancing at the 401k retirement account at the same time.  It's like trying to not looking at the car wreck as you past an accident scene!  More tomorrow evening…Mark Nelsen

21 Responses to Big Storm, Long Ways Away

  1. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    I am talking bout the ones that show 1985 and 2008.

  2. Ryan (Anaheim) says:

    greetings from Anaheim! This is Walnut Grove Ryan checking in from Anaheim on my business trip. It’s. Sunny and 99 degrees. Just about to catch a Laker Game with some pretty stellar seats.

  3. Runrain says:

    Yes, Boring Larry, The Bowl is the original (and only!) Happy Valley. Some interesting microclimates exist in the valley which is about 500 feet in elevation and large wetland in its center. The valley is only about a mile or so in diameter. City Hall is still in an old house by the fire station. Not much longer, though. The new one at the town center on 162nd is almost ready for occupation.
    Happy Valley has annexed the area all the way south to 212 (plus over Mt. Scott) to access the commercial tax base. The Bowl is zoned single family residence only with just a few old standing minor exceptions and the grade school. No one goes through here on their way to somewhere else. With no help from me(!) Happy Valley is the most affluent city in Oregon.

  4. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Which archives are you trying to find?
    The Wunderground ones? the link I posted earlier?
    or…..
    I’m just trying to help.

  5. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I mean I also don’t know where to get the archives to look at maps like that from the past.

  6. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    And where do you find those archives?
    Weather report: It’ is a very surpisnlgy chilly 62F and it’s already past the 2:00 mark. Partly coudy skies with the east part being the cloudy side.

  7. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    Hey Runrain, you mean the bowl on the backside of the hill?….kinda know the area well…..
    Rob…you can feel the excitement in the air!!!…(RIP Lonnie Mayne…)

  8. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Yeah, Larry. Isn’t it great? Well I like it.

  9. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    53.2 thanks to that brief/moderate shower.
    Current upper air analysis
    850mb temps: +1c with the 0c line approaching the Washington Coast
    500mb temps: -18c to -20c in Oregon. -22c to -26c in Washington with -28c over southern British Columbia.
    Seeing really good sun breaks now along with some decent CU and a bit of vertical motion evident.

  10. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    This is what I see in the cards for the next few months. Just some thoughts, educated guess, etc… I see October ending up as relatively close to average temperature wise. Precip will likely end up around average to slightly above.
    November I feel will end up with near normal temps, though there could be some chilly weather toward the end of the month. I think precip will be average. I don’t see any big cold snaps or snow in November, though a dusting after Thanksgiving would not surprise me.
    I think that December will be the month when winter decides to really show up. Temps will trend below average, they will be slightly below normal on the westside of the state and significantly below normal in eastern oregon. I think that precip in December will be normally to slightly below normal. I think that there is a good shot at snow in the valley in December, probably a couple of dustings and maybe a good widespread 1-3 inch storm with more in the hills.
    Our best shot at a true arctic outbreak will be from late December into January. My gut tells me there will be at least one true arctic airmass invading the region this winter. Its been ten years (Dec. 1998) since we had a good lasting shot of arctic air (Jan. 04′ was very short in duration, plus cloud cover prevented lows from dropping below high teens). I think January will be solidly below normal temperature wise with below normal precip. There is a good chance of a couple widespread snows and I have the feeling that one of them will be significant (3+ inches throughout the valley).
    Overall I think the negative PDO and the neutral conditions work in our favor. One other thing I was thinking about is that we are long overdue for a significant snowstorm during the month of February. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I do not think PDX has recorded measurable snowfall since Feb. 1995. Looking back through the archives that is unprecedented.
    I think the chances of a major windstorm or rainfall much above normal are below 50%. I feel the chances of at least one major arctic outbreak with highs in Portland below 30 for 3+ days, lows in the teens and some single digits in outlying areas are above 50%. I also think there is a better than 50% chance that Portland and the Willamette Valley will see a total of over 10 inches of snow this winter.

  11. jacob BPA says:

    I have to agree This winter could shape up to be a good one
    Im Doing orders today on Replacement equipment for outages for this winters weather
    we came up short last year but we are gearing up for a active winter

  12. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Looks like it’s time to bring the Banana tree in. Did you get any tomatoes Mark?
    The 00z GFS & 06z GFS have northerly flow on Friday and Saturday. The 06Z actually looks a little colder and has the upper level air flow coming right over the middle of Vancouver Island and into Oregon. Both show thicknesses between 528 and 540dm.

  13. Jesse-Orchards says:

    *or

  14. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Thanks Paul!
    SP

  15. PaulB/Eugene says:

    EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST FOR: PDX LAT = 45.60 LON = -122.60
    00Z OCT07 * – APPROXIMATED
    850 SFC 500 1000 850 700
    TMP PRS HGT 500 RHU RHU
    (C) (MB) (DM) *THK (PCT) (PCT)
    TUE 00Z 07-OCT 8.4 1016 571 * 559 65 80
    WED 00Z 08-OCT 2.0 1028 567 * 545 77 14
    THU 00Z 09-OCT 0.5 1026 561 * 541 71 22
    FRI 00Z 10-OCT -1.7 1021 549 * 532 88 60
    SAT 00Z 11-OCT 0.4 1022 552 * 535 63 55
    SUN 00Z 12-OCT 1.4 1023 556 * 537 35 58
    MON 00Z 13-OCT 1.8 1030 573 * 549 33 13
    TUE 00Z 14-OCT 10.4 1028 583 * 561 37 31

  16. Justin/ KVUO snowman says:

    What about 1960?
    1960-61 was a terrible winter.

  17. Jesse-Orchards says:

    It won’t be in the low 70s next Monday and Tuesday. 😉

  18. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    So i can hear the rain coming down now we won’t see another nice day til march JK good to see snow levels going down can’t wait for winter so I can shadow at the weather center but I have a question for my senior project we need 30 hours of volunteer work and I am doing 1 flex hour with shadowing but we need atleast 15 hours hands on so is there any place I can check for hands on work for weather thank you?

  19. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    MAN! Wouldn’t be nice if Mark used Google Earth for their 3d fly-thru?
    To whomever said it was in the 90s at LA: That’s gotta suck big time. 😦 Glad you are coming back to our fun little haven instead of being in that smog and anti-weather zone.

  20. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.900 says:

    ….so the geek in me is curious, Mark…what kind of upgrade are you doing?….

  21. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.900 says:

    first!

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