Tracking the Lows

Snapshot  Whew!  Apparently this is THE place to be on a rainy (and soon windy) Friday evening for all the weather freaks.  Now sometimes you'll get TWO posts in one day.  The comment section is looking more like a meteorological Cheers, where everyone knows your name and favorite weather pattern.  A fun evening tonight, more like a winter night following buoy pressures, coastal wind, and the low pressure center.  It's fun only because it's not a huge news story, like a damaging winter windstorm.  When that happens the workload goes WAY up, which allows no time for geekery and ruins the weather fun for me.  Looks like the low is a bit closer to the Coast than we anticipated, but looking at buoys and coastal wind I don't see anything that makes me think wind will be any stronger than expected 24 hours ago.  I see Yaquina Bay Bridge has gusted near 60 mph within the last hour.  I also notice the wind direction is twisted about 90 degrees off.  When there was an east wind early this week it said south instead.  Now it says NW instead of S or SW.  That's the life of an anemometer I suppose.  South wind is also spreading up the Willamette Valley, with Salem switching over to breezy southerly in the last 2 hours.  I expect this moves into the Metro area in the next few hours as the easterly Gorge flow dies down…sounds really familiar doesn't it?  This has happened before and will all happen again.  Oh, sorry, wrong TV show, back to the weather now. 

As some of you noticed, the 00z WRF-GFS has the low moving onshore in NW Washington now, instead of Vancouver Island.  It only slowly weakens too, which gives us isobars oriented straight west-east over Western OR/WA tomorrow AM/Midday.  That's perfect for flow straight up the Valley…it's going to be a windy Saturday morning!  I still think 35 mph for the usual spots (SLE, HIO, PDX, VUO) is likely.  Which means some dude sitting at the top of Council Crest or Mt. Scott will have a higher gust at least to 40 mph.  Pretty good for early October with all the leaves still on the trees.

Real quiet for Sunday and Monday as we will be between weather systems.  A wrinkle in the long-range forecast is that the GFS (as of 00z) keeps rain to our north…just a few dribbles Tuesday, then the deep trough originally forecast to come right through us late week is shunted off to the east instead…Mark Nelsen

223 Responses to Tracking the Lows

  1. cnr van wa says:

    If it smells like a rat, 9 times out of 10, it is a rat.

  2. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Chants a 290 hour sleeping spell for Wrath using Triforce magic. 🙂

  3. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Thanks for fixing the typo all I can say is…http://www.sound-effect.com/sounds1/human/applause/crowdapplause.wav
    56F and overcast.

  4. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    Thanks for fixing the typo all I can say is…http://www.sound-effect.com/sounds1/human/applause/crowdapplause.wav
    56F and overcast.

  5. TV Weather Producer says:

    Yup my bad ! My cold is playing tricks with my head. Back to making magic.

  6. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Yes, I rather like the 18z

  7. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Yes, I rather like the 18z

  8. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Yeah luvry, the 18Z is a thing of beauty.
    More in line with earlier GFS runs, as well as the Canadian and Euro. Let’s hope the 00Z follows suit….

  9. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Yeah luvry, the 18Z is a thing of beauty.
    More in line with earlier GFS runs, as well as the Canadian and Euro. Let’s hope the 00Z follows suit….

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    WOw!
    SSE 43 S 74
    I’m going to bed for 290 hours… I’ll wake up with a complete analysis, WV maps galore.. ummm…..
    Never know.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    WOw!
    SSE 43 S 74
    I’m going to bed for 290 hours… I’ll wake up with a complete analysis, WV maps galore.. ummm…..
    Never know.

  12. luvry says:

    The 18z is noticeably cooler, not only that but any sign of a sustained ridge has been taken out. Although there will be a few dry days. I don’t mind that as long as there is NO warm and sustained ridging.
    At the coldest point, the 18z goes with a -3 at 850mb…That’s with a thickness of 531. On the back end of that trough, friday morning, PDX could see it’s first freeze…POSSIBLY, upper 20’s in outlying areas. As SP mentioned recently, that is a great sign for us if we are looking at the winters following a cool October. it does look like the first half of October will definetely be a cool one.
    One other little thing to look at…won’t come true of course but look at hour 300…
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX

  13. Richard (Derek's Dad) says:

    I remember the ice storm of 1979 well. The night before, about January 7th or 8th, I remember that the weather man predicted a low of about 37, with a chance of some light rain. I then went ot bed, and when I awoke at about 5:00 a.m., to the sound of transformers blowing up, it was 25 degrees, at SW 18th and Market, and it was raining very hard. Previously that winter, we had had a very big cold snap, and my neighbor’s pipes had frozen. So by the time of the freezing rain, my front room was torn up with a big hole in the middle of it, so the pipes could be repaired. So when I got up that moring of the freezing rain, I found a giant racoon in my front room, that evidently had come up through the hole in the floor. Anyway, the thing was very tame, and I ended up feeding it and my cat, cat crunchees in my front room. We got about one inch of freezing rain, but my dad, who lived out on NE 167TH and Glisan, had three inches. Exactly one year later, I believe on the same date, another ice storm, as bad as the one a year earlier also hit.

  14. Richard (Derek's Dad) says:

    I remember the ice storm of 1979 well. The night before, about January 7th or 8th, I remember that the weather man predicted a low of about 37, with a chance of some light rain. I then went ot bed, and when I awoke at about 5:00 a.m., to the sound of transformers blowing up, it was 25 degrees, at SW 18th and Market, and it was raining very hard. Previously that winter, we had had a very big cold snap, and my neighbor’s pipes had frozen. So by the time of the freezing rain, my front room was torn up with a big hole in the middle of it, so the pipes could be repaired. So when I got up that moring of the freezing rain, I found a giant racoon in my front room, that evidently had come up through the hole in the floor. Anyway, the thing was very tame, and I ended up feeding it and my cat, cat crunchees in my front room. We got about one inch of freezing rain, but my dad, who lived out on NE 167TH and Glisan, had three inches. Exactly one year later, I believe on the same date, another ice storm, as bad as the one a year earlier also hit.

  15. Richard (Derek's Dad) says:

    I remember the ice storm of 1979 well. The night before, about January 7th or 8th, I remember that the weather man predicted a low of about 37, with a chance of some light rain. I then went ot bed, and when I awoke at about 5:00 a.m., to the sound of transformers blowing up, it was 25 degrees, at SW 18th and Market, and it was raining very hard. Previously that winter, we had had a very big cold snap, and my neighbor’s pipes had frozen. So by the time of the freezing rain, my front room was torn up with a big hole in the middle of it, so the pipes could be repaired. So when I got up that moring of the freezing rain, I found a giant racoon in my front room, that evidently had come up through the hole in the floor. Anyway, the thing was very tame, and I ended up feeding it and my cat, cat crunchees in my front room. We got about one inch of freezing rain, but my dad, who lived out on NE 167TH and Glisan, had three inches. Exactly one year later, I believe on the same date, another ice storm, as bad as the one a year earlier also hit.

  16. Richard (Derek's Dad) says:

    Derek, who’s on a church mission, asked me to post the following: “Greetings from Los Angeles. Had some rain, thunder and lightning this morning. First real weather since I got here. It’s been hot with temperatures near 100 frequently and the occasional marine layer. Hopefully some more excitement soon.”

  17. Richard (Derek's Dad) says:

    Derek, who’s on a church mission, asked me to post the following: “Greetings from Los Angeles. Had some rain, thunder and lightning this morning. First real weather since I got here. It’s been hot with temperatures near 100 frequently and the occasional marine layer. Hopefully some more excitement soon.”

  18. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Was definitely Mark….
    Happy to see the 7day adjusted too…

  19. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Was definitely Mark….
    Happy to see the 7day adjusted too…

  20. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Was definitely Mark….
    Happy to see the 7day adjusted too…

  21. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    However, I did see both of the Stephanie’s on this mornings newscast.

  22. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Sorry TV but I just watched Mark work on the 5-6 pm newscast tonight.

  23. umpire says:

    I remember the winter of ’78-’79, or more precisely, January of ’79. There was a major ice storm, as I recall in the first half of the month. At the time, I lived near Peninsula Park in north Portland and we lost power for several days. I grew up in Boise, and went to college in Spokane, and had never experienced an ice storm before. That one left a significant coating of ice on everything, with tree branches down everywhere.

  24. umpire says:

    I remember the winter of ’78-’79, or more precisely, January of ’79. There was a major ice storm, as I recall in the first half of the month. At the time, I lived near Peninsula Park in north Portland and we lost power for several days. I grew up in Boise, and went to college in Spokane, and had never experienced an ice storm before. That one left a significant coating of ice on everything, with tree branches down everywhere.

  25. umpire says:

    I remember the winter of ’78-’79, or more precisely, January of ’79. There was a major ice storm, as I recall in the first half of the month. At the time, I lived near Peninsula Park in north Portland and we lost power for several days. I grew up in Boise, and went to college in Spokane, and had never experienced an ice storm before. That one left a significant coating of ice on everything, with tree branches down everywhere.

  26. TV Weather Producer says:

    Mark isn’t working today. Both of the Stephanie’s are…..

  27. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Fixed….max temp of 70.

  28. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Mark is showing a different 7 Day on the newscast, no upper 70’s or 80’s.

  29. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Mark is showing a different 7 Day on the newscast, no upper 70’s or 80’s.

  30. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Mark is showing a different 7 Day on the newscast, no upper 70’s or 80’s.

  31. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Mark is showing a different 7 Day on the newscast, no upper 70’s or 80’s.

  32. PaulB/Eugene says:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234fe1t_s
    Copy an paste the link into the url bar….Canadian Weather Office suggests it will be cold in most of Great White North during the Nov-Dec-Jan timeframe….however their long range forecasts have not been very reliable on the west side….so who knows what will happen.
    I think there is general sense out there that things will be colder than normal up north, in AK, Canada….with my best guess that the coldest anomalies will start out west then work east toward the Hudson Bay/Ontario/Quebec by late December.
    How much of the cold will make it down here and when….?….a recklessly uneducated and unsubstantiated guess would be that we will have arctic air making its presence felt around the first or second week of December.
    Jan/Feb to be drier than normal, seasonal to mild temps, not much snow in Cascades (at least not as much as a year ago).
    October is looking to me to be on the cool side, with relatively light precipitation in the first half, more in the second half.
    November might have one really wet week, with the other three rather dry. No excitement temp wise. Only a couple ski areas will open at the end of Nov, the others in first week of Dec.
    I sense this year will not be the year of the 954 mb bomb off Newport….with few high wind watches/warning.
    If I can’t have a 954 I will gladly take a 964 🙂
    The Columbia won’t freeze over.
    Speaking of which….18Z GFS notably cooler with trough late this week.
    100% chance of me being wrong.

  33. PaulB/Eugene says:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234fe1t_s
    Copy an paste the link into the url bar….Canadian Weather Office suggests it will be cold in most of Great White North during the Nov-Dec-Jan timeframe….however their long range forecasts have not been very reliable on the west side….so who knows what will happen.
    I think there is general sense out there that things will be colder than normal up north, in AK, Canada….with my best guess that the coldest anomalies will start out west then work east toward the Hudson Bay/Ontario/Quebec by late December.
    How much of the cold will make it down here and when….?….a recklessly uneducated and unsubstantiated guess would be that we will have arctic air making its presence felt around the first or second week of December.
    Jan/Feb to be drier than normal, seasonal to mild temps, not much snow in Cascades (at least not as much as a year ago).
    October is looking to me to be on the cool side, with relatively light precipitation in the first half, more in the second half.
    November might have one really wet week, with the other three rather dry. No excitement temp wise. Only a couple ski areas will open at the end of Nov, the others in first week of Dec.
    I sense this year will not be the year of the 954 mb bomb off Newport….with few high wind watches/warning.
    If I can’t have a 954 I will gladly take a 964 🙂
    The Columbia won’t freeze over.
    Speaking of which….18Z GFS notably cooler with trough late this week.
    100% chance of me being wrong.

  34. PaulB/Eugene says:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234fe1t_s
    Copy an paste the link into the url bar….Canadian Weather Office suggests it will be cold in most of Great White North during the Nov-Dec-Jan timeframe….however their long range forecasts have not been very reliable on the west side….so who knows what will happen.
    I think there is general sense out there that things will be colder than normal up north, in AK, Canada….with my best guess that the coldest anomalies will start out west then work east toward the Hudson Bay/Ontario/Quebec by late December.
    How much of the cold will make it down here and when….?….a recklessly uneducated and unsubstantiated guess would be that we will have arctic air making its presence felt around the first or second week of December.
    Jan/Feb to be drier than normal, seasonal to mild temps, not much snow in Cascades (at least not as much as a year ago).
    October is looking to me to be on the cool side, with relatively light precipitation in the first half, more in the second half.
    November might have one really wet week, with the other three rather dry. No excitement temp wise. Only a couple ski areas will open at the end of Nov, the others in first week of Dec.
    I sense this year will not be the year of the 954 mb bomb off Newport….with few high wind watches/warning.
    If I can’t have a 954 I will gladly take a 964 🙂
    The Columbia won’t freeze over.
    Speaking of which….18Z GFS notably cooler with trough late this week.
    100% chance of me being wrong.

  35. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    In a word? NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
    I really, really, really, really, hope that is a typo on the 7-Day for KPTV. Both 2 & 8 are only showing 66 for Saturday. It would be horrible to come home to temps that high. I’m in LA Monday-Friday where I have to suffer through upper 70’s to upper 80’s all week. Coming home to 88 would be mentally devastating for a person of the fall & winter like myself. 🙂
    I gotta think that either someone typed in the wrong thing for the KPTV 7-Day or when the image was updated it accidentally grabbed an old image (which has happened before).

  36. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    In a word? NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
    I really, really, really, really, hope that is a typo on the 7-Day for KPTV. Both 2 & 8 are only showing 66 for Saturday. It would be horrible to come home to temps that high. I’m in LA Monday-Friday where I have to suffer through upper 70’s to upper 80’s all week. Coming home to 88 would be mentally devastating for a person of the fall & winter like myself. 🙂
    I gotta think that either someone typed in the wrong thing for the KPTV 7-Day or when the image was updated it accidentally grabbed an old image (which has happened before).

  37. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    I just about fell out of my chair when I saw the seven day. I hope that’s a typo as Mark’s rarely off that much. Looking at the 12z and 18z GFS I don’t see any thing like that. More like 20-30 degrees lower. Those temps are possible this time of year, but are all at or near records.
    87 is the Hillsboro record for a high on the 11th.

  38. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    I just about fell out of my chair when I saw the seven day. I hope that’s a typo as Mark’s rarely off that much. Looking at the 12z and 18z GFS I don’t see any thing like that. More like 20-30 degrees lower. Those temps are possible this time of year, but are all at or near records.
    87 is the Hillsboro record for a high on the 11th.

  39. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    88F on Sat? That must be a typo as it’s impossible to be that warm here.

  40. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    88F on Sat? That must be a typo as it’s impossible to be that warm here.

  41. TriforceofInvisbilty says:

    88F on Sat? That must be a typo as it’s impossible to be that warm here.

  42. SnowFlake (Tigard/Bull Mtn) says:

    DITTO Salemphil!!! I am so ready for Fall.

  43. SnowFlake (Tigard/Bull Mtn) says:

    DITTO Salemphil!!! I am so ready for Fall.

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