Wet Weather Ahead

Snapshot I took one day off yesterday, come back, take a look at the maps, and it looks like winter!  Well, at least with respect to cold fronts and low pressure systems.  12z models showed the possibility of maybe 60+ mph wind gusts along the Oregon Coast and 40 mph in the Valley.  00z models are a bit weaker, showing a filling low moving towards southern Vancouver Island Saturday.  We rarely get any significant wind from a low that is filling, and neither do we get strong wind from a low that remains offshore.  So I think it'll be breezy Saturday not only on the Coast but here in the Valleys too.  Quite a bit of rain on the way too…maybe 1-1.5" in the Valleys by Sunday and 2-3" in the mountains.

10:42pm Update:  I just got an email from Dallas…Lisa says those heavy showers have produced lightning and thunder.  No cloud to ground strikes so far, but obviously we're getting some nice lifting in the moist southerly flow.  No reason that couldn't continue the next few hours.  I will say that our RPM model had a "convective look" to it as the first band of rain moves in towards daybreak…could be an interesting early October night!

On a separate note…the last couple of days I did something that I have never done in my adult life.  I e-mailed our representatives and senators in Congress, telling them what I thought of the current economic mess.  My opinions aren't really the point here.  What is important is that our leaders must hear what we think.  So please take time in the next two days to let your representative in the U.S. House know what you'd like them to do.  Okay, off the soapbox…Mark Nelsen

195 Responses to Wet Weather Ahead

  1. Chuckyd81 says:

    Rob…
    For what it’s worth, that low didn’t weaken very much…if at all. The WV imagery is a bit hard to read on this one (i.e. it’s not your classic looking cyclone), however that doesn’t mean this low has lost all of it’s oomph.
    I notice this morning that the 06z NAM run from NCEP’s webpage still brings the low in as 984mb. The GFS is a little weaker initially, but also brings it in as 988mb…which is supported by HPC’s 09z surface analysis.
    What I’m saying here is that the low is pretty much acting as forecast.

  2. Chuckyd81 says:

    Rob…
    For what it’s worth, that low didn’t weaken very much…if at all. The WV imagery is a bit hard to read on this one (i.e. it’s not your classic looking cyclone), however that doesn’t mean this low has lost all of it’s oomph.
    I notice this morning that the 06z NAM run from NCEP’s webpage still brings the low in as 984mb. The GFS is a little weaker initially, but also brings it in as 988mb…which is supported by HPC’s 09z surface analysis.
    What I’m saying here is that the low is pretty much acting as forecast.

  3. Chuckyd81 says:

    Rob…
    For what it’s worth, that low didn’t weaken very much…if at all. The WV imagery is a bit hard to read on this one (i.e. it’s not your classic looking cyclone), however that doesn’t mean this low has lost all of it’s oomph.
    I notice this morning that the 06z NAM run from NCEP’s webpage still brings the low in as 984mb. The GFS is a little weaker initially, but also brings it in as 988mb…which is supported by HPC’s 09z surface analysis.
    What I’m saying here is that the low is pretty much acting as forecast.

  4. 00z had snow levels down to near 2500ft, 06z has them just a tiny bit higher, very interesting. If we get a -4 850mb temp with a clear night, we could be looking at our first freeze. We should keep an eye. GFS has been consistent with wanting to bring much cooler air around that timeline, last three-four runs have called for -3 or -4C 850mb (4000′) temps. Just for reference freezing levels are generally projected based on both 500mb thickness and 850mb temperature forecasts, in winter, generally speaking, we need -6 to -8 C 850mb temps to get snow to fall, -8 for it to stick. But, the thickness of cold air can have us getting sticky snow with -6 as well.

  5. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Meets Rob out in the hallway and says: This is like an Elnino or something good night Rob and don’t let the bed bugs bite.

  6. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Meets Rob out in the hallway and says: This is like an Elnino or something good night Rob and don’t let the bed bugs bite.

  7. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    (walks into KPTV Blog room and whispers:
    It’s 58F here and overcast so let’s take a look at today’s rain-bucket okay………………….Is that a 0 on there? no way. 😦 😦
    Darn it some kids drew on Marks forecast chart and left it ON THE FLOOR! Litter-bugs. 😦 :> Oh well. Mark needs better security. 😦
    Turns off the lights to the room and puts the radar to “Sleep mode” since no one is using it, Then feeds chimpy a midnight snack. 🙂 Good night bloggers and chimpy. “Ohh ohh ee ee Good night funny and hairy humans.”

  8. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    (walks into KPTV Blog room and whispers:
    It’s 58F here and overcast so let’s take a look at today’s rain-bucket okay………………….Is that a 0 on there? no way. 😦 😦
    Darn it some kids drew on Marks forecast chart and left it ON THE FLOOR! Litter-bugs. 😦 :> Oh well. Mark needs better security. 😦
    Turns off the lights to the room and puts the radar to “Sleep mode” since no one is using it, Then feeds chimpy a midnight snack. 🙂 Good night bloggers and chimpy. “Ohh ohh ee ee Good night funny and hairy humans.”

  9. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    (walks into KPTV Blog room and whispers:
    It’s 58F here and overcast so let’s take a look at today’s rain-bucket okay………………….Is that a 0 on there? no way. 😦 😦
    Darn it some kids drew on Marks forecast chart and left it ON THE FLOOR! Litter-bugs. 😦 :> Oh well. Mark needs better security. 😦
    Turns off the lights to the room and puts the radar to “Sleep mode” since no one is using it, Then feeds chimpy a midnight snack. 🙂 Good night bloggers and chimpy. “Ohh ohh ee ee Good night funny and hairy humans.”

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Ah….
    Good early morning
    Appears the low weakened some over the past 5-6 hours.
    WV loop doesn’t show a very healthy looking low. Looks like some type of a split jet near the Coast with energy going into northern California and energy going into northern Washington. The dry slot/jet support is waning already too. It’s so badly organized there isn’t even any reason to create a WV map. I know I’m sure you are all thinking, “What? Rob doesn’t want to create a WV map?”
    Right now it is progged around 990mb, so according to that it has weakened. It might strengthen a tad, but I’d be surprised if the low dropped much below where it is now. Looks to me like nothing more than 20-30mph for winds here…. Rainy, breezy, a nice introduction to Fall. In other news the Gorge flow just turned flat/very very lightly offshore. The 06z GFS extended after this low there is another low deeper yet for Monday night-Tuesday projected to move towards the Queen Charlotte Islands to Northern Vancouver Island. It may swing a moderately strong cold front through. Other than that looks like drier than wetter during the extended period. Subject to change as we know the 06z is often an outlier and really not that accurate.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Ah….
    Good early morning
    Appears the low weakened some over the past 5-6 hours.
    WV loop doesn’t show a very healthy looking low. Looks like some type of a split jet near the Coast with energy going into northern California and energy going into northern Washington. The dry slot/jet support is waning already too. It’s so badly organized there isn’t even any reason to create a WV map. I know I’m sure you are all thinking, “What? Rob doesn’t want to create a WV map?”
    Right now it is progged around 990mb, so according to that it has weakened. It might strengthen a tad, but I’d be surprised if the low dropped much below where it is now. Looks to me like nothing more than 20-30mph for winds here…. Rainy, breezy, a nice introduction to Fall. In other news the Gorge flow just turned flat/very very lightly offshore. The 06z GFS extended after this low there is another low deeper yet for Monday night-Tuesday projected to move towards the Queen Charlotte Islands to Northern Vancouver Island. It may swing a moderately strong cold front through. Other than that looks like drier than wetter during the extended period. Subject to change as we know the 06z is often an outlier and really not that accurate.

  12. Anonymous says:

    when its dead here i think you can post in here… its not really a big deal

  13. Anonymous says:

    when its dead here i think you can post in here… its not really a big deal

  14. Anonymous says:

    when its dead here i think you can post in here… its not really a big deal

  15. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Yeah J.R Triforce has been trying to make Rob speak but he no speak. Weird huh. Triforce wishes Rob will speak about storm from the God of Wind.

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