Wet Weather Ahead

October 1, 2008

Snapshot I took one day off yesterday, come back, take a look at the maps, and it looks like winter!  Well, at least with respect to cold fronts and low pressure systems.  12z models showed the possibility of maybe 60+ mph wind gusts along the Oregon Coast and 40 mph in the Valley.  00z models are a bit weaker, showing a filling low moving towards southern Vancouver Island Saturday.  We rarely get any significant wind from a low that is filling, and neither do we get strong wind from a low that remains offshore.  So I think it'll be breezy Saturday not only on the Coast but here in the Valleys too.  Quite a bit of rain on the way too…maybe 1-1.5" in the Valleys by Sunday and 2-3" in the mountains.

10:42pm Update:  I just got an email from Dallas…Lisa says those heavy showers have produced lightning and thunder.  No cloud to ground strikes so far, but obviously we're getting some nice lifting in the moist southerly flow.  No reason that couldn't continue the next few hours.  I will say that our RPM model had a "convective look" to it as the first band of rain moves in towards daybreak…could be an interesting early October night!

On a separate note…the last couple of days I did something that I have never done in my adult life.  I e-mailed our representatives and senators in Congress, telling them what I thought of the current economic mess.  My opinions aren't really the point here.  What is important is that our leaders must hear what we think.  So please take time in the next two days to let your representative in the U.S. House know what you'd like them to do.  Okay, off the soapbox…Mark Nelsen


Below Record but Above Average Temp’s … and a Happy New Year

October 1, 2008

  Yesterday turned out to be a bit of a disappointment because the clouds coving the Valley failed to burn off early enough for really warm temperatures. Today is going to be around 8 degrees warmer than average at about 78, but below record levels. Tomorrow brings a change with rain in the forecast which will remain there for the following 6 days. The ridge of high pressure that has been keeping us warm and dry is breaking down with an active storm pattern filling in behind it bringing in a series of fronts. Enjoy the nice weather before we really see the fall rains begin.

    Now for the weather community, the start of October marks the beginning of a new water year. Not surprisingly this past year has been….wait for it…. Dry! September ended with about a half inch of rain, well below the 1.65" normal.  From the looks of the current 7 day forecast we might start the new water year out a little on the wet side? -Rob Martin

 WATERYEAR