A Warm Wind

Snapshot Things worked out about as expected today.  A nice strong easterly gradient through the Gorge peaked out around 5 millibars PDX-DLS this morning, but didn't drop much below 4 millibars even this afternoon.  That's a sure sign of Fall…an east wind that doesn't die down much in the afternoon.  In summer there's a very diurnal variation with it peaking out in the morning and dying down by evening due to the east side of the state baking in mid-summer sunshine.  

We just had our peak gust of the day (25 mph) here at the TV station on Highway 26 & Cornell at 9:03pm.  We are in the "West Hills Downslope Wind Exit Region"…or at least that's what I like to call it, or actually I just came up with that…pretty clever eh?  An increasing or at least steady wind at 9pm way over on this side of town makes me think that there are going to be a few spots that stay quite warm overnight.  Near the Gorge I think the wind keeps going…but PDX will probably go calm or just get some minor mixing off/on during the night.  With such a warm atmosphere developing overhead (+21degC 850mb by daybreak), temps holding in the mid 60s is possible even this late in the season.

The wind did make it to the beaches today, pushing just about all locations above 80 degrees.  I expect the same tomorrow, but then there is a shallow southerly surge that works up the Coastline tomorrow evening.  That puts them back in the 60's and lower 70s for Tuesday while we stay pretty warm inland.  I think Newport and a few other locations along the Coast will stay above 60 tonight too.

Models keep hinting at something moving up the Cascades tomorrow evening and Tuesday morning in the upper-atmosphere.  Normally one might think "What?  thunderstorms the last day of September?", but it's a very warm atmosphere and there were hundreds of lightning strikes over Nevada and Utah today.  We'll see what the next model run shows, but flow will be south or southeasterly, always good for thunderstorms.

We lose the offshore flow, but don't get any significant onshore flow, Tuesday and Wednesday.  There does appear to be a good push Thursday as a short wave swings through.  Then the "rain" door is opened up for the weekend.  Friday-Saturday look real wet…the GFS says we are going to get soaked.  Not sure about my dry forecast for Sunday…might adjust that after looking at 00z data.  The main point is to get your dry weather chores done by Wednesday, or Thursday at the latest.

I've turned the comments back on, but wasn't that a nice quiet Sunday on the blog?  After checking the stats I realized (and so should everyone else) that the number of folks reading this blog was WAY down over the last 4 days, as it always is during sunny weather.  The point is that very few people saw many of the postings, which is probably good.  About 1,300 page views for Friday and Saturday, as opposed to 8,000 on Monday August 18th…one of the heat wave days.  And by the way, there have been 96,000 comment posted over the last 2.5 years!  You people have been busy…Mark Nelsen

266 Responses to A Warm Wind

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    For those of you interested,the annual weather forum at OMSI is being held this year on Friday,October 24th at 10AM. It,s in the auditorium at OMSI,and the admission is free. Last year such meteorological luminaries fo the local media such as Mark Nelson,Pete Parsons,Matt Zafino,and others gave their winter weather forecast prognostications. It was very illuminating,and for the most part very accurate. Hope to see you all there.

  2. luvry says:

    Yup, having a definite cool off here now. Under 70 for the first time all night with NNW wind 3-7MPH. Feeling quite pleasant outside now!!!

  3. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Nice east wind increase at TTD.
    E @ 23 G 31
    This is now becoming much more of a typical Gorge “gap” wind rather than the mix of downslope and gap winds we have been seeing.

  4. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Luvry, weak mid-level moisture interaction with some type of weak marine air filtering in? Was some very very weak instability, but not much to write home about, or e-mail home about.
    Well PDX/TTD-DLS both increased again even sharper.
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 10 PM
    AST-PDX: +3.2
    AST-DLS: -1.4
    OTH-SLE: +3.6
    OTH-EUG: +2.0
    PDX-DLS: -4.7
    TTD-DLS: -5.1
    OTH-GEG: -2.6

  5. luvry says:

    Rob, crazy thing just happened, my temp was going up, then all the sudden some showers popped up, just small popcorn variety and it rained here for a minute…all the sudden my temp is dropping at a good clip with a SW wind, thing we know what happened there heh?

  6. Jesse-Orchards says:

    62 and calm here. 🙂

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    62 and calm here. 🙂

  8. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Timmy, you do have a valid point about the relaxed rules. – That’s it for me.
    I’m still at 73.8, was 75 not that long ago. Warm outside and the AC is still running.
    Luvry, maybe we average the two models and bring it right up the valley over Portland!

  9. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    East wind has increased here…
    Now back to 20-30mph.

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    East wind has increased here…
    Now back to 20-30mph.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Luvry, 9 PM observations looks like the thermal trough is just west of the crest of the Coast Range..
    With that 990mb low offshore near 40 N, 140 W perhaps deepening just a tad further and moving NNE towards 48 N, 135 W overnight-tomorrow morning I am thinking this may keep light east winds going for a bit… Hmmmm….
    Trust me I’d be fine if a massive rush of ocean air moved inland…..

  12. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Sorry guys, but I am currently a nice 59.6°

  13. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Sorry guys, but I am currently a nice 59.6°

  14. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Sorry guys, but I am currently a nice 59.6°

  15. luvry says:

    what the heck!!! My temp went up!!! 76.5 now!!!!

  16. luvry says:

    what the heck!!! My temp went up!!! 76.5 now!!!!

  17. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Need… Cool… Air…
    Miserable tonight thus far. I’m sticky and hot and with it being a little over 24 hours away from October that just should not happen!
    Unacceptable weather gods! Unacceptable!
    I shouldn’t be sticking to my office seat this late in the season.

  18. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Need… Cool… Air…
    Miserable tonight thus far. I’m sticky and hot and with it being a little over 24 hours away from October that just should not happen!
    Unacceptable weather gods! Unacceptable!
    I shouldn’t be sticking to my office seat this late in the season.

  19. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Need… Cool… Air…
    Miserable tonight thus far. I’m sticky and hot and with it being a little over 24 hours away from October that just should not happen!
    Unacceptable weather gods! Unacceptable!
    I shouldn’t be sticking to my office seat this late in the season.

  20. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Still 77.2° here.. Temp hasn’t fallen but .4° over the past 1 1/2 hours.
    East wind continues 5-15mph
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 9 PM
    AST-PDX: +2.5
    AST-DLS: -1.5
    OTH-SLE: +4.5
    OTH-EUG: +2.7
    PDX-DLS: -4.0
    TTD-DLS: -4.5
    OTH-GEG: -2.4
    Gorge offshore flow has increased a bit for the 2nd consecutive hour….

  21. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Still 77.2° here.. Temp hasn’t fallen but .4° over the past 1 1/2 hours.
    East wind continues 5-15mph
    [Surface gradients]
    as of 9 PM
    AST-PDX: +2.5
    AST-DLS: -1.5
    OTH-SLE: +4.5
    OTH-EUG: +2.7
    PDX-DLS: -4.0
    TTD-DLS: -4.5
    OTH-GEG: -2.4
    Gorge offshore flow has increased a bit for the 2nd consecutive hour….

  22. luvry says:

    BTW, 12z euro put saturday’s storm south of portland, GFS North, now if we get a mix of the two…hmmmmm.

  23. luvry says:

    BTW, 12z euro put saturday’s storm south of portland, GFS North, now if we get a mix of the two…hmmmmm.

  24. luvry says:

    BTW, 12z euro put saturday’s storm south of portland, GFS North, now if we get a mix of the two…hmmmmm.

  25. luvry says:

    Gentleman, I am with in the mortgage industry…more to affluent clients vs. sub-prime. I work for a large corporation and I could rant about this forever…all i can say is thank god my bank boosted rates (I was complaining of course) when everyone else was rock bottom…thre’s someone really smart working above me and i owe still having a job alllll to them. HIO and Timmy, you both have very valid points for sure.
    I won’t post anymore on this and I think we should all get away from the political/economic discussion…a lot of people are having tough times and do not want to think about them, thus they come here to talk about weather…my two cents…I think i started this earlier and….OOPS..if I did, I think everyone got what they wanted off their chest!!!
    Let’s move on!
    Wow, i can’t believe it’s still 75.9 here right now…I have moved towards a light and variable wind, hopefully it cools off soon. Eagerly awaiting 00z, should be running right now!

  26. luvry says:

    Gentleman, I am with in the mortgage industry…more to affluent clients vs. sub-prime. I work for a large corporation and I could rant about this forever…all i can say is thank god my bank boosted rates (I was complaining of course) when everyone else was rock bottom…thre’s someone really smart working above me and i owe still having a job alllll to them. HIO and Timmy, you both have very valid points for sure.
    I won’t post anymore on this and I think we should all get away from the political/economic discussion…a lot of people are having tough times and do not want to think about them, thus they come here to talk about weather…my two cents…I think i started this earlier and….OOPS..if I did, I think everyone got what they wanted off their chest!!!
    Let’s move on!
    Wow, i can’t believe it’s still 75.9 here right now…I have moved towards a light and variable wind, hopefully it cools off soon. Eagerly awaiting 00z, should be running right now!

  27. luvry says:

    Gentleman, I am with in the mortgage industry…more to affluent clients vs. sub-prime. I work for a large corporation and I could rant about this forever…all i can say is thank god my bank boosted rates (I was complaining of course) when everyone else was rock bottom…thre’s someone really smart working above me and i owe still having a job alllll to them. HIO and Timmy, you both have very valid points for sure.
    I won’t post anymore on this and I think we should all get away from the political/economic discussion…a lot of people are having tough times and do not want to think about them, thus they come here to talk about weather…my two cents…I think i started this earlier and….OOPS..if I did, I think everyone got what they wanted off their chest!!!
    Let’s move on!
    Wow, i can’t believe it’s still 75.9 here right now…I have moved towards a light and variable wind, hopefully it cools off soon. Eagerly awaiting 00z, should be running right now!

  28. The forums I host, the registration originally said you couldn’t post right away, that is not the case (I have since fixed that message). Once you register (something like 4 or 5 fields) you can post right away. (cooldango.com/forums)

  29. The forums I host, the registration originally said you couldn’t post right away, that is not the case (I have since fixed that message). Once you register (something like 4 or 5 fields) you can post right away. (cooldango.com/forums)

  30. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    I registered last night to Antony’s new forums and am going to see if it came in. 🙂
    PS: Not to get a heated debate but there was a thread called the Happy Thread in OT which turned sour realll fast.

  31. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    I registered last night to Antony’s new forums and am going to see if it came in. 🙂
    PS: Not to get a heated debate but there was a thread called the Happy Thread in OT which turned sour realll fast.

  32. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    whats the final forecast for wind speeds on thursday/friday??

  33. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    whats the final forecast for wind speeds on thursday/friday??

  34. timmy - Scappoose says:

    im not sure the issue is just minorities, or if it is companies having relaxed standards due to government calling for it.

  35. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Looks like one of those fool you nights.

  36. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Looks like one of those fool you nights.

  37. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Hey back to weather…. haha…
    Okay well…. I think the thermal trough is hung up over the Coast Range…
    PDX/TTD-DLS both just increased back to -4mb.
    Now it could be due to that, or it could be due to the 997mb low deepening offshore near 38 N, 140 W and 1026mb ridge over northeastern Washington causing for the gradient to tighten slightly, as seen here http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/wv_enhanced/200809300300.gif
    The OTH-GEG cross cascade gradient remained -2.7mb so this is how I’ve come to that conclusion.
    18z NOAA/NCEP forecast map

    projects this low to deepen to 989mb and move to about 39 N, 138 W. It should not get too much further east as it will be moving into the blocking ridge over us.
    Perhaps due to this we do not entirely lose the light east wind overnight in the Gorge, perhaps areas E of I-205? Hmmm…

  38. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Mortgage companies and banks were making loans because they were making lots of money off of them, and Wall Street funded them for the same reason, not because any political party told them too. Works great when everything is going up, but home prices inflated more than people could reasonably pay. When home prices started dropping, the model broke down. The greedier, less conservative the bank, the worst off they are now. I believe only ~3.5% of the sub-prime loans were made to minorities.
    Sorry Mark, more econ talk.
    Oh, 75.6 currently

  39. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Mortgage companies and banks were making loans because they were making lots of money off of them, and Wall Street funded them for the same reason, not because any political party told them too. Works great when everything is going up, but home prices inflated more than people could reasonably pay. When home prices started dropping, the model broke down. The greedier, less conservative the bank, the worst off they are now. I believe only ~3.5% of the sub-prime loans were made to minorities.
    Sorry Mark, more econ talk.
    Oh, 75.6 currently

  40. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Mortgage companies and banks were making loans because they were making lots of money off of them, and Wall Street funded them for the same reason, not because any political party told them too. Works great when everything is going up, but home prices inflated more than people could reasonably pay. When home prices started dropping, the model broke down. The greedier, less conservative the bank, the worst off they are now. I believe only ~3.5% of the sub-prime loans were made to minorities.
    Sorry Mark, more econ talk.
    Oh, 75.6 currently

  41. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Mortgage companies and banks were making loans because they were making lots of money off of them, and Wall Street funded them for the same reason, not because any political party told them too. Works great when everything is going up, but home prices inflated more than people could reasonably pay. When home prices started dropping, the model broke down. The greedier, less conservative the bank, the worst off they are now. I believe only ~3.5% of the sub-prime loans were made to minorities.
    Sorry Mark, more econ talk.
    Oh, 75.6 currently

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