A Dry September

Snapshot  It seems extremely unlikely that we'll have any more rainfall this month, so the final total should be less than .50".  It'll go down as another dry month in this dry 2008.  And it'll be the first real warm and dry September we've had for a few years.

Other than low clouds tomorrow morning, I think it should be a cloudless weekend.  One more band of clouds from the dying cold front offshore should move by mainly to our north the next 12 hours.  Surface high pressure develops to our north during the day tomorrow, keeping temperatures similar to today, or up 5 degrees at most…somewhere in that range.

Then a quick change occurs early Sunday.  Surface high pressure develops east of the Cascades.  This should be the strongest easterly flow we've seen so far this season.  00z WRF-GFS gives us a solid 5 millibars from PDX to the Columbia Basin.  Easterly flow is from the surface to around 2,500'.  That continues all the way through Monday evening.  In fact at 5pm Monday it still shows 3-4 millibars with a strong thermal trough in the Valley even then.  On Sunday afternoon the thermal trough makes it to the beaches, so that's why I pumped up the 80-88 degree forecast for the North Coast cities.  This evenings runs also make me feel a bit more confident about the 90 degree forecast for Monday.  I see the 92 degree isotherm shows up in the Willamette Valley on the 00z WRF-GFS for Monday afternoon, that's warmer than previous runs.  In fact both the 00z NAM & 00z GFS now show 850mb temps of +23 to +24 Monday afternoon.  That is VERY warm for the last few days of September…very rare indeed.

00z GFS pushes the rain off AGAIN!  It shows no rain until Friday…didn't it tell us about 3 days ago that it would rain sometime on Tuesday?  I've left the rain in for Thursday, since I hate to waffle around too much.  Plus I work both evenings this weekend, so PLENTY of time to update.

A personnel note:  You've probably noticed some moving around of the "talent" in the weather center.  That's what they call the on-air people in the TV world.  Of course some claim we have no talent at all…Anyway, I digress.  With the addition of the 4pm, 5pm, & 8pm weekday shows over the last 6 months, we are just about to finish adding a few new weather people:

1.  Drew Jackson has moved to weekday evenings with me.  He'll do the 8pm show on PDX-TV and 11pm KPTV show.  You'll see him off/on in the 4, 5, and 10pm shows too.  I will continue to forecast in the 4, 5, & 10pm shows.

2.  Rob Martin, an intern here 2 years ago, is now our morning meteorologist along with Andy Carson, mostly off-air for now.  He just got his Meteorology degree from the University of Utah.  He's a sharp guy who likes hanging around on the blog with you folks.

3.  Stephanie Ortmann joins us next week.  She has a degree in meteorology as well, from Florida State University.  Those of you in Eugene may recognize her or at least her name.  She is coming to us from Colorado Springs, but worked a couple years forecasting weather in Eugene recently.  Stephanie O. will do the weekday morning shows, and fill in other times as well.

The addition of these folks gives us the largest weather team (6) in Portland now, with lots of Northwest experience as well!

Mark Nelsen

49 Responses to A Dry September

  1. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Hmmm…must be the first one Mback (lol).
    September 1975 had no rain in Hillsboro, and 5.75″ in October.
    Wind has picked up here. NE at 2-10 G 12.
    73.8 allready off the high of 74.3.

  2. Mback (TTD) says:

    George Taylor expects an early start to fall here with an active winter. He also thinks this will be a good snow year for the mountains. The reason I know this is because I taught him everything he knows about weather….or I heard it on the radio last week, you decide……

  3. Mback (TTD) says:

    George Taylor expects an early start to fall here with an active winter. He also thinks this will be a good snow year for the mountains. The reason I know this is because I taught him everything he knows about weather….or I heard it on the radio last week, you decide……

  4. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …the air movement here is starting to come from the east…..

  5. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …the air movement here is starting to come from the east…..

  6. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Wow – Sounds like a lot of work Anthony. I bookmarked your link and will take a look sometime later.
    Yes – some winters have started slow in Sept-Oct, and then took off. 52-53 comes to mind, and 81-82 had a long dry period Sept-Oct. From looking at Hillsboro rain data, dry Septembers are followed more often than not by dry Octobers.
    I’m holding on to my prediction of a colder and drier than average winter.

  7. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Wow – Sounds like a lot of work Anthony. I bookmarked your link and will take a look sometime later.
    Yes – some winters have started slow in Sept-Oct, and then took off. 52-53 comes to mind, and 81-82 had a long dry period Sept-Oct. From looking at Hillsboro rain data, dry Septembers are followed more often than not by dry Octobers.
    I’m holding on to my prediction of a colder and drier than average winter.

  8. luvry says:

    Hey Phil, yeah, the 12z euro has come a little in line with the gfs for once, lately it’s been opposite. Nothing exciting coming our way unless your a fan of september warmth/heat.
    I guess all i can say is GO DUCKS!!!

  9. luvry says:

    Hey Phil, yeah, the 12z euro has come a little in line with the gfs for once, lately it’s been opposite. Nothing exciting coming our way unless your a fan of september warmth/heat.
    I guess all i can say is GO DUCKS!!!

  10. luvry says:

    Hey Phil, yeah, the 12z euro has come a little in line with the gfs for once, lately it’s been opposite. Nothing exciting coming our way unless your a fan of september warmth/heat.
    I guess all i can say is GO DUCKS!!!

  11. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Thanks Mark,
    Looks like you have some new talent to go along with all the new news hours. You might want to just switch the onset of rain to Saturday or Sunday Mark, and then make it light.
    I’ve seen this routine from the GFS before. Keep pushing out and weakening the onset of precip/cold air. Hopefully this doesn’t become the routine this winter, but it’s still early.
    I agree 12z really didn’t change anything Luvry.
    64.2 and warming. North wind, if you can call it wind, more like drift.

  12. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    the more meteorologist the better accuracy of a forecast can be!!

  13. luvry says:

    Wow, i can’t believe how much of a problem the GFS is having with the low sitting out there in the GOA…I wonder if fall will ever start at this rate…hahahaha. 6z and 12z suck.
    Nah, enjoy the nice weather while we have it, come mid october, I’m sure this blog will be poppin.
    However, in order to back up my thoughts about a big winter, i would have liked to have seen an early start to fall…an active sept/oct usually bodes very well for us during the winter. This year is a completely different animal…guess we’ll wait and see.

  14. luvry says:

    Wow, i can’t believe how much of a problem the GFS is having with the low sitting out there in the GOA…I wonder if fall will ever start at this rate…hahahaha. 6z and 12z suck.
    Nah, enjoy the nice weather while we have it, come mid october, I’m sure this blog will be poppin.
    However, in order to back up my thoughts about a big winter, i would have liked to have seen an early start to fall…an active sept/oct usually bodes very well for us during the winter. This year is a completely different animal…guess we’ll wait and see.

  15. luvry says:

    Wow, i can’t believe how much of a problem the GFS is having with the low sitting out there in the GOA…I wonder if fall will ever start at this rate…hahahaha. 6z and 12z suck.
    Nah, enjoy the nice weather while we have it, come mid october, I’m sure this blog will be poppin.
    However, in order to back up my thoughts about a big winter, i would have liked to have seen an early start to fall…an active sept/oct usually bodes very well for us during the winter. This year is a completely different animal…guess we’ll wait and see.

  16. luvry says:

    Wow, i can’t believe how much of a problem the GFS is having with the low sitting out there in the GOA…I wonder if fall will ever start at this rate…hahahaha. 6z and 12z suck.
    Nah, enjoy the nice weather while we have it, come mid october, I’m sure this blog will be poppin.
    However, in order to back up my thoughts about a big winter, i would have liked to have seen an early start to fall…an active sept/oct usually bodes very well for us during the winter. This year is a completely different animal…guess we’ll wait and see.

  17. Salemphil says:

    Absolutely beautiful out there this morning, though I can hardly wait for the winter storms to begin!

  18. Salemphil says:

    Absolutely beautiful out there this morning, though I can hardly wait for the winter storms to begin!

  19. Salemphil says:

    Absolutely beautiful out there this morning, though I can hardly wait for the winter storms to begin!

  20. Jesse-Camas says:

    Western is actually a great resource. I’ve learned a lot over there. Sure, like any internet forum, it has its problems, but for the most part it is a very valuable site for anyone interested in weather.

  21. Jory (Sandy) says:

    Cool Boring!! Labor intensive huh?

  22. Jory (Sandy) says:

    Cool Boring!! Labor intensive huh?

  23. Jory (Sandy) says:

    Cool Boring!! Labor intensive huh?

  24. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Western Weather = Evil. Somehow arguments over there always spill over too this blog.
    No mention of Ms. Kralevich? I remember a blog post mentioning that she was doing the 11pm show. Or do the suits have other plans?
    Fantastic morning with low clouds and 55 degrees. Still looking forward to those crisp mornings with morning temps in the low 40’s and upper 30’s.

  25. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Western Weather = Evil. Somehow arguments over there always spill over too this blog.
    No mention of Ms. Kralevich? I remember a blog post mentioning that she was doing the 11pm show. Or do the suits have other plans?
    Fantastic morning with low clouds and 55 degrees. Still looking forward to those crisp mornings with morning temps in the low 40’s and upper 30’s.

  26. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Western Weather = Evil. Somehow arguments over there always spill over too this blog.
    No mention of Ms. Kralevich? I remember a blog post mentioning that she was doing the 11pm show. Or do the suits have other plans?
    Fantastic morning with low clouds and 55 degrees. Still looking forward to those crisp mornings with morning temps in the low 40’s and upper 30’s.

  27. Rob Martin says:

    It didn’t like one of the links.

  28. Rob Martin says:

    It didn’t like one of the links.

  29. Jory (Sandy) says:

    I suspect the one they are talking about is…
    http://westernusawx.com/forums/index.php
    There are a few others also
    This one is a quiet one… (may be on the way out)
    http://jimlittle.net/cgi-bin/bulletinboard/YaBB.pl?catselect=weather
    This one is a personal one from TV Weather producer ( If I remember correctly, if not, sorry TV) … http://pacificweather.blogspot.com/
    Don’t know much about this one…
    http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/pnwwj/

  30. Jory (Sandy) says:

    I suspect the one they are talking about is…
    http://westernusawx.com/forums/index.php
    There are a few others also
    This one is a quiet one… (may be on the way out)
    http://jimlittle.net/cgi-bin/bulletinboard/YaBB.pl?catselect=weather
    This one is a personal one from TV Weather producer ( If I remember correctly, if not, sorry TV) … http://pacificweather.blogspot.com/
    Don’t know much about this one…
    http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/pnwwj/

  31. Rob Martin says:

    I have read a few posts mentioning another weather blog… can someone tell me what it is?
    Thanks

  32. Rob Martin says:

    I have read a few posts mentioning another weather blog… can someone tell me what it is?
    Thanks

  33. 06z has us pretty warm through the entire run, no fun.

  34. 06z has us pretty warm through the entire run, no fun.

  35. Mark Nelsen says:

    No, it’s just that lots more shows mean more people are needed. Good night all!

  36. luvry says:

    Mark, all these additions better not mean you’re gettin ready to make a move!!!

  37. luvry says:

    Mark, all these additions better not mean you’re gettin ready to make a move!!!

  38. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Welcome this is the fun blog.

  39. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Welcome this is the fun blog.

  40. TV Weather Producer says:

    Welcome to Stephanie 2. I’m glad Mark mentioned this.

  41. TV Weather Producer says:

    Welcome to Stephanie 2. I’m glad Mark mentioned this.

  42. TV Weather Producer says:

    Welcome to Stephanie 2. I’m glad Mark mentioned this.

  43. luvry says:

    FIRST WOO!!!!!

%d bloggers like this: