A Dry September

September 26, 2008

Snapshot  It seems extremely unlikely that we'll have any more rainfall this month, so the final total should be less than .50".  It'll go down as another dry month in this dry 2008.  And it'll be the first real warm and dry September we've had for a few years.

Other than low clouds tomorrow morning, I think it should be a cloudless weekend.  One more band of clouds from the dying cold front offshore should move by mainly to our north the next 12 hours.  Surface high pressure develops to our north during the day tomorrow, keeping temperatures similar to today, or up 5 degrees at most…somewhere in that range.

Then a quick change occurs early Sunday.  Surface high pressure develops east of the Cascades.  This should be the strongest easterly flow we've seen so far this season.  00z WRF-GFS gives us a solid 5 millibars from PDX to the Columbia Basin.  Easterly flow is from the surface to around 2,500'.  That continues all the way through Monday evening.  In fact at 5pm Monday it still shows 3-4 millibars with a strong thermal trough in the Valley even then.  On Sunday afternoon the thermal trough makes it to the beaches, so that's why I pumped up the 80-88 degree forecast for the North Coast cities.  This evenings runs also make me feel a bit more confident about the 90 degree forecast for Monday.  I see the 92 degree isotherm shows up in the Willamette Valley on the 00z WRF-GFS for Monday afternoon, that's warmer than previous runs.  In fact both the 00z NAM & 00z GFS now show 850mb temps of +23 to +24 Monday afternoon.  That is VERY warm for the last few days of September…very rare indeed.

00z GFS pushes the rain off AGAIN!  It shows no rain until Friday…didn't it tell us about 3 days ago that it would rain sometime on Tuesday?  I've left the rain in for Thursday, since I hate to waffle around too much.  Plus I work both evenings this weekend, so PLENTY of time to update.

A personnel note:  You've probably noticed some moving around of the "talent" in the weather center.  That's what they call the on-air people in the TV world.  Of course some claim we have no talent at all…Anyway, I digress.  With the addition of the 4pm, 5pm, & 8pm weekday shows over the last 6 months, we are just about to finish adding a few new weather people:

1.  Drew Jackson has moved to weekday evenings with me.  He'll do the 8pm show on PDX-TV and 11pm KPTV show.  You'll see him off/on in the 4, 5, and 10pm shows too.  I will continue to forecast in the 4, 5, & 10pm shows.

2.  Rob Martin, an intern here 2 years ago, is now our morning meteorologist along with Andy Carson, mostly off-air for now.  He just got his Meteorology degree from the University of Utah.  He's a sharp guy who likes hanging around on the blog with you folks.

3.  Stephanie Ortmann joins us next week.  She has a degree in meteorology as well, from Florida State University.  Those of you in Eugene may recognize her or at least her name.  She is coming to us from Colorado Springs, but worked a couple years forecasting weather in Eugene recently.  Stephanie O. will do the weekday morning shows, and fill in other times as well.

The addition of these folks gives us the largest weather team (6) in Portland now, with lots of Northwest experience as well!

Mark Nelsen