Sunny Tuesday

Junk I ran across this while I was going through my afternoon forecast routine.  The 6-10 Day 500mb height outlook.  This should get a good discussion going.  I'll post later.  Okay, it's 10:24pm and I'm back.   What a nice day today…after the really chilly start.  I see Timber ODOT station hit 31 degrees early today, and HIO was 35.

Warmer temps tonight with the increasing cloud cover from the offshore cold front.  Some rain later tomorrow and then post-frontal showers are the story for Thursday.  Looks like dry Friday-Monday, but a front drags by just to the north Saturday.  That's why I put more cloud cover in and lowered temps over the weekend.  850mb temps peak out around +15 Sunday and Monday, although now I see the 00z GFS has a +19 deg Monday.  I trust the +15 ECMWF a bit more, it's been more consistent. 

Models have been hinting at a much stronger jet stream developing the middle of next week in the eastern Pacific.  The map above shows the 6-10 day deviation from normal 500mb. heights.  You can clearly see the big negative anomaly in the map.

The 00z GFS is a bit slower on development of westerly flow.  It has no rain Tuesday…so much for my wet Tuesday forecast…but there's always tomorrow…Mark Nelsen

125 Responses to Sunny Tuesday

  1. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Grandma’s cookies, I don’t have any memories of that, (and no it’s not because of what I may have done in college).
    That was in Florida and Kentuncky in the summer and I was haveing too much fun watching the t-storms, or at the beach, or catching crawfish and cutting them up to fish for bass, to remember the cookies.
    Currently 59.4, fairly warm still.

  2. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Just finished raining here, received 0.20″
    Temp 56.4°
    DP 52.3°
    Winds are calm

  3. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Just finished raining here, received 0.20″
    Temp 56.4°
    DP 52.3°
    Winds are calm

  4. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Hogging all the rain again Larry……sigh…
    Well for a “Stonger” system this one produced “0” in the rain bucket so far out here and probably most other places on the west side vs. .23″ on the weekend.
    00Z GFS is running. I’ll take a look at that and the 06z in the morning.
    Currently 58.9

  5. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Hogging all the rain again Larry……sigh…
    Well for a “Stonger” system this one produced “0” in the rain bucket so far out here and probably most other places on the west side vs. .23″ on the weekend.
    00Z GFS is running. I’ll take a look at that and the 06z in the morning.
    Currently 58.9

  6. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …after this 3 hour and continuing downpour, i officially declare the dust is settled till…oh, May?

  7. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …after this 3 hour and continuing downpour, i officially declare the dust is settled till…oh, May?

  8. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …after this 3 hour and continuing downpour, i officially declare the dust is settled till…oh, May?

  9. I agree, I wouldn’t be surprised to see models deepen one of the lows, but from the looks of it, it seems doubtful that anything other than a nice soaking is in store, but it is still a good ways out.

  10. I agree, I wouldn’t be surprised to see models deepen one of the lows, but from the looks of it, it seems doubtful that anything other than a nice soaking is in store, but it is still a good ways out.

  11. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Breezy, dry, cool, and overcast here in North Vancouver. I love it.

  12. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Breezy, dry, cool, and overcast here in North Vancouver. I love it.

  13. Last nights run would have been a big wind producer, but a few runs since then have squashed the intensity, though rainfall does appear heavy for the system and it is staying pretty consistent on it’s delivery right into the pacific northwest.

  14. Last nights run would have been a big wind producer, but a few runs since then have squashed the intensity, though rainfall does appear heavy for the system and it is staying pretty consistent on it’s delivery right into the pacific northwest.

  15. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Yeah Phil, nothing real big showing up on the last couple runs as far as wind but it’s still a good setup to watch…just have to keep our eyes peeled.

  16. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Yeah Phil, nothing real big showing up on the last couple runs as far as wind but it’s still a good setup to watch…just have to keep our eyes peeled.

  17. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Yeah Phil, nothing real big showing up on the last couple runs as far as wind but it’s still a good setup to watch…just have to keep our eyes peeled.

  18. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Andrew what is your email address so I can chat Silverton weather if something weird happens such as a storm miss and everone else gets it?

  19. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Raining light to moderate here. 🙂 🙂 🙂 YAY! I was SICK of the dry conditions we were having. I don’t even care if it’s humid at least it’s wet.

  20. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Well no sooner did the rain start than it stopped. The 12z GFS looked very wet the first week of October. No sign of any blocking highs anywhere. I didn’t see any real good wind setups, but some of the other folks here will have a better handle on that.

  21. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Well no sooner did the rain start than it stopped. The 12z GFS looked very wet the first week of October. No sign of any blocking highs anywhere. I didn’t see any real good wind setups, but some of the other folks here will have a better handle on that.

  22. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Well no sooner did the rain start than it stopped. The 12z GFS looked very wet the first week of October. No sign of any blocking highs anywhere. I didn’t see any real good wind setups, but some of the other folks here will have a better handle on that.

  23. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Winds have picked up here in the couve.

  24. Andrew Johnson says:

    I am near Silverton btw

  25. Andrew Johnson says:

    I am near Silverton btw

  26. Andrew Johnson says:

    I am near Silverton btw

  27. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Light rain here now.

  28. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Light rain here now.

  29. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    67f down from 69F bout an hour ago .
    Sky conditions: Tottaly overcast.

  30. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    As soon as I typed the gusty winds died down. Mom said it started about 10:30ish or so.

  31. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Warm outside ahead of the front.
    Temp 72.4°
    DP 37.3°
    RH 28%
    Winds SSW 2-10 mph

  32. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Starting to rain in Beaverton

  33. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce now assums no one is getting the gusty south winds we are since Wrath isn’t posting gradients.
    69F and mostly cloudy with once every 5 or so mintues a gust that makes a slight humming noise like the engine of an airplane. I think the winds are gusting into the lower 30s upper 20s at the least.

  34. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce now assums no one is getting the gusty south winds we are since Wrath isn’t posting gradients.
    69F and mostly cloudy with once every 5 or so mintues a gust that makes a slight humming noise like the engine of an airplane. I think the winds are gusting into the lower 30s upper 20s at the least.

  35. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce now assums no one is getting the gusty south winds we are since Wrath isn’t posting gradients.
    69F and mostly cloudy with once every 5 or so mintues a gust that makes a slight humming noise like the engine of an airplane. I think the winds are gusting into the lower 30s upper 20s at the least.

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