I ran across this while I was going through my afternoon forecast routine. The 6-10 Day 500mb height outlook. This should get a good discussion going. I'll post later. Okay, it's 10:24pm and I'm back. What a nice day today…after the really chilly start. I see Timber ODOT station hit 31 degrees early today, and HIO was 35.
Warmer temps tonight with the increasing cloud cover from the offshore cold front. Some rain later tomorrow and then post-frontal showers are the story for Thursday. Looks like dry Friday-Monday, but a front drags by just to the north Saturday. That's why I put more cloud cover in and lowered temps over the weekend. 850mb temps peak out around +15 Sunday and Monday, although now I see the 00z GFS has a +19 deg Monday. I trust the +15 ECMWF a bit more, it's been more consistent.
Models have been hinting at a much stronger jet stream developing the middle of next week in the eastern Pacific. The map above shows the 6-10 day deviation from normal 500mb. heights. You can clearly see the big negative anomaly in the map.
The 00z GFS is a bit slower on development of westerly flow. It has no rain Tuesday…so much for my wet Tuesday forecast…but there's always tomorrow…Mark Nelsen