Underachieving Hot Spell

Moon The moon SEEMS really big tonight, so I figure it's worth a large picture.

Many of our viewers have been writing, wondering about the freakishly red full Harvest Moon.  It's due to smoke from the Rattle Fire, near Diamond Lake in S.W. Oregon.  The flow in the upper atmosphere has turned southeasterly, sending a surge of smoke north.  The flow stays generally the same way through Wednesday, so I think we have a smoky/hazy day on the way again for tomorrow.

Now…for the "cool" heat wave.  850 mb temp was 24.4 degrees at SLE this afternoon!  That is the highest on my September chart for the years 1997-2003…this is the warmest airmass you can get this time of year.  So why only 89 degrees?  Not enough easterly flow.  Anemic east wind only made it to Troutdale…just barely.  I looked at the maps from the 1981 heat…On September 15th that year we hit 96 at PDX.  I'm assuming the east wind made it to PDX that day.  This warm of an airmass would have produced a 100-103 in August.

No reason to think there will be any change tomorrow.  Easterly flow won't be any stronger, so that's why I left the high at 90.  Cooler starting Wednesday, then models are in disagreement from Thursday onward.  Mark Nelsen

88 Responses to Underachieving Hot Spell

  1. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce hopes that the t-storms don’t come to Silverton cause he needs to sleep to take the written Driving exam tomorrow since he missed by 10points last time.
    I wonder what happeend to my comment about playing the t-storm song?
    I guess I forgot to push post….Wait a minute did Mark re-arrange the post icon?

  2. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce hopes that the t-storms don’t come to Silverton cause he needs to sleep to take the written Driving exam tomorrow since he missed by 10points last time.
    I wonder what happeend to my comment about playing the t-storm song?
    I guess I forgot to push post….Wait a minute did Mark re-arrange the post icon?

  3. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce hopes that the t-storms don’t come to Silverton cause he needs to sleep to take the written Driving exam tomorrow since he missed by 10points last time.
    I wonder what happeend to my comment about playing the t-storm song?
    I guess I forgot to push post….Wait a minute did Mark re-arrange the post icon?

  4. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Triforce wonders about Silverton for T-storms.
    I am 68.7F and mostley cloudy. Chimpy: “Reallly?” Yeah. (Plays the t-storm song on the piano which sounds almost like ‘Ride of the Valkeries’ by Wagner but with different arrangments.)

  5. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Lisa, there is a very very slight chance we see anything north of say Bend/Eugene…. No chance of severe.
    If I had to guess that fire I believe looks to be near the Olallie Lake area.

  6. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Lisa, there is a very very slight chance we see anything north of say Bend/Eugene…. No chance of severe.
    If I had to guess that fire I believe looks to be near the Olallie Lake area.

  7. Lisa says:

    That fire in Clackamas County, what city is it near? Also, about the T-storms…what’s it looking like for us Sandy/Eagle Creek area? Could these be severe?

  8. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Hmmmm
    MU CAPE 2000-3000J/kg
    Mid-Level lapse rates 9.5C/km
    500mb temps -14c cooling slightly overnight/early Wednesday morning.
    Pretty good elevated instability present although I think the best dynamics/moisture will remain S-SE of us.
    Something to keep an eye on though.

  9. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Hmmmm
    MU CAPE 2000-3000J/kg
    Mid-Level lapse rates 9.5C/km
    500mb temps -14c cooling slightly overnight/early Wednesday morning.
    Pretty good elevated instability present although I think the best dynamics/moisture will remain S-SE of us.
    Something to keep an eye on though.

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    The moon isn’t red anymore blah
    It was neat briefly.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    The moon isn’t red anymore blah
    It was neat briefly.

  12. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    little bit of ash here too…

  13. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    little bit of ash here too…

  14. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Have had a bit of ash falling here as well this evening.

  15. jacob BPA says:

    Its the End of the World
    a red Moon

  16. jacob BPA says:

    Its the End of the World
    a red Moon

  17. jacob BPA says:

    Its the End of the World
    a red Moon

  18. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    The moon is just coming up over the horizon…
    It looks perhaps a bit more red/orange then even last night.

  19. Salemphil says:

    haven’t seen anything falling…ash wise down here in salem and judging by the radar the smoke over us down here is from the Eugene area. You folks up there must be getting ash from the new fire near the central cascades. On a similar note they were doing control burns around the Prineville Reservior last week and our camp got absolutely covered in ash on our last day camping. Should have seen those Juniper trees going up in flames, was quite a sight!!

  20. Salemphil says:

    haven’t seen anything falling…ash wise down here in salem and judging by the radar the smoke over us down here is from the Eugene area. You folks up there must be getting ash from the new fire near the central cascades. On a similar note they were doing control burns around the Prineville Reservior last week and our camp got absolutely covered in ash on our last day camping. Should have seen those Juniper trees going up in flames, was quite a sight!!

  21. Salemphil says:

    haven’t seen anything falling…ash wise down here in salem and judging by the radar the smoke over us down here is from the Eugene area. You folks up there must be getting ash from the new fire near the central cascades. On a similar note they were doing control burns around the Prineville Reservior last week and our camp got absolutely covered in ash on our last day camping. Should have seen those Juniper trees going up in flames, was quite a sight!!

  22. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Here is a more user/computer friendly smaller pic.

  23. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Here is a more user/computer friendly smaller pic.

  24. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I took a pic.
    This is what is all over the vehicles/everything else here.

    You can see tons of very small fine pieces, then larges sized ones.

  25. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I took a pic.
    This is what is all over the vehicles/everything else here.

    You can see tons of very small fine pieces, then larges sized ones.

  26. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I took a pic.
    This is what is all over the vehicles/everything else here.

    You can see tons of very small fine pieces, then larges sized ones.

  27. Aleta- west gresham says:

    Ash is here as well. Not a lot but enough to see some pieces on the car. Very strange.

  28. Mback (TTD) says:

    This is crazy. I also have ash falling. Rather odd but nothing is odd around here anymore it seems.

  29. Mback (TTD) says:

    This is crazy. I also have ash falling. Rather odd but nothing is odd around here anymore it seems.

  30. Mback (TTD) says:

    This is crazy. I also have ash falling. Rather odd but nothing is odd around here anymore it seems.

  31. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    This is rather eerie…
    Not a tremendous amount, but if you stand outside you can see it falling every 5 seconds or so.
    My guess is the fire I posted about earlier over extreme south central Clackamas County the smoke/ash from it got caught up in the SSE flow aloft, or perhaps from the Rattle fire.

  32. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    This is rather eerie…
    Not a tremendous amount, but if you stand outside you can see it falling every 5 seconds or so.
    My guess is the fire I posted about earlier over extreme south central Clackamas County the smoke/ash from it got caught up in the SSE flow aloft, or perhaps from the Rattle fire.

  33. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Okay covering is the wrong term.
    A noticeable amount on the vehicles out here.

  34. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Okay covering is the wrong term.
    A noticeable amount on the vehicles out here.

  35. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    We also have ash falling…. from the forest fires? Has to be. There is a noticeable amount covering the vehicles out here.
    Anyone else seeing this?

  36. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    We also have ash falling…. from the forest fires? Has to be. There is a noticeable amount covering the vehicles out here.
    Anyone else seeing this?

  37. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Oxygen rag I mean. 79F and hazy skies. Better scram since everone heard me play especally since I am horrible at piano. (plays ending theme 1)

  38. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    (does Oxygan rag on KPTV Piano) Aren’t I’m a good player? Looks like everyone on live TV heard me yikes!

  39. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    (does Oxygan rag on KPTV Piano) Aren’t I’m a good player? Looks like everyone on live TV heard me yikes!

  40. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    (does Oxygan rag on KPTV Piano) Aren’t I’m a good player? Looks like everyone on live TV heard me yikes!

  41. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Luvry, I just checked SPC parameters and they have our region in a Mesoscale Analysis box.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=2
    Looks like some instability with favorable LI/Mid-level lapse rates are present.
    I also see a fairly strong cap though.
    Perhaps overnight when 500mb temps cool further we might see something? I’d say very slight chance, but I am not waiving the white flag yet.

  42. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    18z actually warms it up quite a bit but this run typically sucks…took a lot of the moisture away as well.
    Just have to see what the 00z looks like, my bet is that it will look more like the 12z.
    I think the GFS is confused, it really wants to get fall kickin here but can’t quite turn the corner…
    12z euro is going strong with the trough on Sunday/Monday, guess we’ll see.

  43. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    18z actually warms it up quite a bit but this run typically sucks…took a lot of the moisture away as well.
    Just have to see what the 00z looks like, my bet is that it will look more like the 12z.
    I think the GFS is confused, it really wants to get fall kickin here but can’t quite turn the corner…
    12z euro is going strong with the trough on Sunday/Monday, guess we’ll see.

%d bloggers like this: