A Slow Weather Night

Junk So why not look at the latest NHC forecast for Gustav.  Exciting times ahead in the Gulf of Mexico apparently.  (11:10pm update:  00z HWRF intensifies the storm to 200 mph in the Gulf and makes a direct hit on New Orleans!  Link is here)That plus Russia saying they may cut off oil this weekend could make the energy situation even MORE interesting, but that's well beyond the scope of my little weather blog.

A surge of moisture into our airmass this evening…dewpoints have pushed up to around or just above 60 degrees.  Looks like a slight push up the Columbia River did it.  This goes really well with MOS data that showed high dewpoints (for us) tomorrow, then sudden drying with dewpoints into the 40s tomorrow night and Saturday behind a mainly dry cold front.

Quite a sharp trough dropping in Saturday and Sunday.  I like the look…if it was January.  A strong wave rotates south into the Pacific Northwest around a cold polar vortex over western/central Canada.  This could probably bring a nice show of low elevation snow (or at least in the hills) and then cold/dry air from the north.

Not much else to say tonight and I'm running a bit behind.  Mark Nelsen

 

447 Responses to A Slow Weather Night

  1. TriforceofInvisibilty says:

    Note: Slug Bug is a generic version of Snail Mail for REALLLLY poor people to get their mail any where in this world and beyond. (They offer discounts for people that are this close to penniless)
    Snail Mail is for people on a budget which is also slow but the people take less breaks and deliever at night.

  2. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Thank you TV for (kinda) reading the first part.
    Writes an aplogoy note to God for hating him over the last moment Triforce got upet with him and sends it by Slug Bug hoping it will get to God’s Hands. The note that is.
    Unfortunalty the slug bug is soooo slow even though it flies. Anything can happen to that letter which the Triforce hopes it remains intact.
    Now I am at 62F right now. Nope that was 10mins ago or so. I am at 59F.
    Interesting that their is a pool of cold water at BC.
    Now at the other forum which I won’t get into detail this exact topic would have been turned upside down by a sarastic poster or a person with an ‘I dont care’ attitude.
    Thank you guys for keeping things Kleen around here. 🙂 🙂 Makes it soo enjoyable to my eyes to read.

  3. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Thank you TV for (kinda) reading the first part.
    Writes an aplogoy note to God for hating him over the last moment Triforce got upet with him and sends it by Slug Bug hoping it will get to God’s Hands. The note that is.
    Unfortunalty the slug bug is soooo slow even though it flies. Anything can happen to that letter which the Triforce hopes it remains intact.
    Now I am at 62F right now. Nope that was 10mins ago or so. I am at 59F.
    Interesting that their is a pool of cold water at BC.
    Now at the other forum which I won’t get into detail this exact topic would have been turned upside down by a sarastic poster or a person with an ‘I dont care’ attitude.
    Thank you guys for keeping things Kleen around here. 🙂 🙂 Makes it soo enjoyable to my eyes to read.

  4. TriforceofInvisibility says:

    Thank you TV for (kinda) reading the first part.
    Writes an aplogoy note to God for hating him over the last moment Triforce got upet with him and sends it by Slug Bug hoping it will get to God’s Hands. The note that is.
    Unfortunalty the slug bug is soooo slow even though it flies. Anything can happen to that letter which the Triforce hopes it remains intact.
    Now I am at 62F right now. Nope that was 10mins ago or so. I am at 59F.
    Interesting that their is a pool of cold water at BC.
    Now at the other forum which I won’t get into detail this exact topic would have been turned upside down by a sarastic poster or a person with an ‘I dont care’ attitude.
    Thank you guys for keeping things Kleen around here. 🙂 🙂 Makes it soo enjoyable to my eyes to read.

  5. Luvry says:

    Yo Ryan…ENSO neutral (some signs are pointing to a small nina again, however) has in the past been our best shot with a -PDO. I’m very interested to see where the August and September PDO numbers come in (August # should be out on the 15th), there are some VERY cold anomolies off of the BC coast that cover a wide area. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight rise for August #’s as our most negative July PDO months have been followed up by a warmer August. I expect to see a very negative number for Sept.
    You are playing it safe and after our last decade of snow bummers, i don’t blame you. However, this winter is setting up like a lot of our best winters indicy-wise (of course there are some that aren’t falling in line but not the most important and don’t affect our weather as much IMHO.)
    The kiss of death could be the farmers almanac calling for a catastrophic winter.
    The biggest unknown here is the dead sun…we know that the sun is not active right now…it has to have an effect on our weather…but how drastic, we may never know for sure. I’ve read reports that some scientists think we are entering into some sort of minimum and sunspots will be gone by 2015…we could enter a phase like the maunder or a more moderated version. Guess we’ll find that out with time. But if the sun does stay inactive, it will effect us to an even greater extent eventually, especially if cycle 24 is a very small and minimal cycle.
    It’s best to go in without expectations and get hammered!

  6. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I should note that Swan Island actually isn’t an island anymore. They filled in the river enough that the east side of the island no longer has any water between it and North Portland. Although back when the Portland Airport was on the island it still loosely qualified for island status. 🙂

  7. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I should note that Swan Island actually isn’t an island anymore. They filled in the river enough that the east side of the island no longer has any water between it and North Portland. Although back when the Portland Airport was on the island it still loosely qualified for island status. 🙂

  8. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Triforce – Swan Island is an industrial park on the Willamette just north of downtown Portland. The island is exposed to North/South winds and any good events from either direction tend to cause a lot of brownouts where I’m at.
    Luvry – I’m keeping my expectations really low for this winter. We had some good wind events (a lot of non-events in the valley) but that was about it. So if I keep my expectations low even a quasi-active winter will be a bonus!!
    My biggest hope is that we have an ENSO neutral (or is it PDO neutral?) conditions this year. It seems most of our good snow years were neutral years.

  9. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Triforce – Swan Island is an industrial park on the Willamette just north of downtown Portland. The island is exposed to North/South winds and any good events from either direction tend to cause a lot of brownouts where I’m at.
    Luvry – I’m keeping my expectations really low for this winter. We had some good wind events (a lot of non-events in the valley) but that was about it. So if I keep my expectations low even a quasi-active winter will be a bonus!!
    My biggest hope is that we have an ENSO neutral (or is it PDO neutral?) conditions this year. It seems most of our good snow years were neutral years.

  10. TV Weather Producer says:

    Triforce,
    I got your email. I’ll respond over on Western !

  11. TV Weather Producer says:

    Triforce,
    I got your email. I’ll respond over on Western !

  12. TV Weather Producer says:

    Triforce,
    I got your email. I’ll respond over on Western !

  13. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    New 7 day…

    Nice stretch of weather, but I’d like temps more 72-76 so I don’t have to run the A/C when it exceeds 80F
    Lol I know I am a total wussy.
    Very nice sleeping weather though.

  14. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    New 7 day…

    Nice stretch of weather, but I’d like temps more 72-76 so I don’t have to run the A/C when it exceeds 80F
    Lol I know I am a total wussy.
    Very nice sleeping weather though.

  15. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Jesse, that’s funny cause I just pulled that out of my…well you know.
    TV, good point about Jacob.
    BTW, I got a chance to check out that technology CNN was using at the RNC yesterday, friggen SWEET!!!! I want one, lol.
    Ryan…I’d say you will probably end up pleasantely surprised this summer if you think we’re just gonna have another run of the mill winter. So many crazy variables and combinations of things out there right now, I don’t think any of us have seen a winter with this type of setup, will be interesting for sure. With this much variability, a dead sun, -PDO and three other (possibly) negative indicies, not to mention cold air pooling up north already, there is the possibility we could get hit HARD this summer. I can say fairly confidentely, this will not be a run of the mill winter, one way or the other.

  16. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Jesse, that’s funny cause I just pulled that out of my…well you know.
    TV, good point about Jacob.
    BTW, I got a chance to check out that technology CNN was using at the RNC yesterday, friggen SWEET!!!! I want one, lol.
    Ryan…I’d say you will probably end up pleasantely surprised this summer if you think we’re just gonna have another run of the mill winter. So many crazy variables and combinations of things out there right now, I don’t think any of us have seen a winter with this type of setup, will be interesting for sure. With this much variability, a dead sun, -PDO and three other (possibly) negative indicies, not to mention cold air pooling up north already, there is the possibility we could get hit HARD this summer. I can say fairly confidentely, this will not be a run of the mill winter, one way or the other.

  17. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Jesse, that’s funny cause I just pulled that out of my…well you know.
    TV, good point about Jacob.
    BTW, I got a chance to check out that technology CNN was using at the RNC yesterday, friggen SWEET!!!! I want one, lol.
    Ryan…I’d say you will probably end up pleasantely surprised this summer if you think we’re just gonna have another run of the mill winter. So many crazy variables and combinations of things out there right now, I don’t think any of us have seen a winter with this type of setup, will be interesting for sure. With this much variability, a dead sun, -PDO and three other (possibly) negative indicies, not to mention cold air pooling up north already, there is the possibility we could get hit HARD this summer. I can say fairly confidentely, this will not be a run of the mill winter, one way or the other.

  18. TriforceofInvisiblity says:

    What do you mean Swan Island and wind do not mix? Where is Swan Island? Do they have old crappy insulators or something?

  19. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Hmmm… I’m hoping fall gets started after this last little warm spot. My $.02 on wintery weather:
    First Windstorm: October 6th (again my software roll out has to have some sort of a problem)
    First Frost: October 30th
    First Snow: November 28th (just to make Black Friday entertaining)
    But I’m guessing it will be a boring cool, slightly drier, no real snow events as usual; sort of fall/winter.

  20. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Hmmm… I’m hoping fall gets started after this last little warm spot. My $.02 on wintery weather:
    First Windstorm: October 6th (again my software roll out has to have some sort of a problem)
    First Frost: October 30th
    First Snow: November 28th (just to make Black Friday entertaining)
    But I’m guessing it will be a boring cool, slightly drier, no real snow events as usual; sort of fall/winter.

  21. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Hmmm… I’m hoping fall gets started after this last little warm spot. My $.02 on wintery weather:
    First Windstorm: October 6th (again my software roll out has to have some sort of a problem)
    First Frost: October 30th
    First Snow: November 28th (just to make Black Friday entertaining)
    But I’m guessing it will be a boring cool, slightly drier, no real snow events as usual; sort of fall/winter.

  22. TV Weather Producer says:

    Jacob just doesn’t like weather during summer because he doesn’t have a desk job and has to be “out in the field”…. He would like winter all year long.

  23. TV Weather Producer says:

    Jacob just doesn’t like weather during summer because he doesn’t have a desk job and has to be “out in the field”…. He would like winter all year long.

  24. Jesse-Camas says:

    Luvry, interesting you picked October 5th as the first frost for PDX. I believe that would tie for earliest frost ever for that location, that record being set in October 1985.
    We can hope!

  25. Jesse-Camas says:

    Luvry, interesting you picked October 5th as the first frost for PDX. I believe that would tie for earliest frost ever for that location, that record being set in October 1985.
    We can hope!

  26. Jesse-Camas says:

    Luvry, interesting you picked October 5th as the first frost for PDX. I believe that would tie for earliest frost ever for that location, that record being set in October 1985.
    We can hope!

  27. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Oh, might as well, first snow is Dec. 13th at PDX.

  28. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Oh, might as well, first snow is Dec. 13th at PDX.

  29. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Oh, and as for the first windstorm threat, I would go with Late october…lets say for SAG’s the 21st 🙂

  30. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Oh, and as for the first windstorm threat, I would go with Late october…lets say for SAG’s the 21st 🙂

  31. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Oh, and as for the first windstorm threat, I would go with Late october…lets say for SAG’s the 21st 🙂

  32. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    Oh, and as for the first windstorm threat, I would go with Late october…lets say for SAG’s the 21st 🙂

  33. Luvry (Tanasbourne) says:

    JACOB!!! YOU’RE ALIVE!!!
    you are exactly the opposite of a bear, you go into hibernation during the warm months!
    I’m going with October 5th for first frost.

  34. jacob BPA says:

    Well Maybe its time to Guess the first frost in the PDX area

  35. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    now*

  36. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    now*

  37. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    now*

  38. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    now*

  39. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    41.2 this morning here.
    Now it is mostly sunny yet hazy.
    Surface gradients indicate the onshore flow has weakened and is not flat.

  40. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I’m going with the first weekend of October. Only because that is the weekend I’m leading a massive software implementation for my company and a power outage is almost bound to happen during the critical phase of this roll out.
    For whatever reason Swan Island & Wind don’t mix well when it comes to power supply.

  41. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I’m going with the first weekend of October. Only because that is the weekend I’m leading a massive software implementation for my company and a power outage is almost bound to happen during the critical phase of this roll out.
    For whatever reason Swan Island & Wind don’t mix well when it comes to power supply.

  42. kirk says:

    cool last night my low was 41.7

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