A nice plume of moisture is getting organized to our west this evening. It’s a combination of subtropical moisture streaming across the Pacific and a system dropping south out of Alaska that gives us a rain threat late tomorrow night and Friday morning. Once again, it won’t give us much rain inland…just like Tuesday.
The trough swinging inland over the Northwest Friday-Saturday is showing signs of lingering through the rest of the weekend as well. The always-pessimistic NAM has 500mb heights down around 567 dm. That’s similar to a cold June upper-level low. I’ve discounted that since the ECMWF and GFS are not as deep. And speaking of ignoring some models…you may notice the 7 day forecast doesn’t match the big warm up forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models. They both say we’ll be 90-96 Tuesday and Wednesday. Maybe as warm as 85-90 on Monday as well. When I saw that today, I immediately assumed that the familiar pattern of models backing off on warm spells would continue. Sure enough, I see the 00z is already cooler for Monday. But Tuesday and Wednesday are still forecast to be scorchers. I am breathlessly awaiting the 00z ECMWF. Well, actually I’m still breathing, but you know what I mean.
On the home front, I had a face to face encounter with Bambi in my garden last night around 12:45am. He/she was munching on the carrots looking very contented. My kids accidentally left the gate open. Hmmm, 2 apple trees appear a little stripped…the battle continues…
I’ll be off the next two days in exchange for working an 8 day stretch when I return from vacation late next week. So no new posts until at least next Friday, the 8th. Mark Nelsen