Vacation Time Again

July 30, 2008

Snapshot[2] The forecast worked out perfectly again today.  Morning clouds to afternoon sunshine.  You know it’s a chilly airmass when a sunny afternoon only produces a high of 72 at PDX on July 30th!

A nice plume of moisture is getting organized to our west this evening.  It’s a combination of subtropical moisture streaming across the Pacific and a system dropping south out of Alaska that gives us a rain threat late tomorrow night and Friday morning.  Once again, it won’t give us much rain inland…just like Tuesday.

The trough swinging inland over the Northwest Friday-Saturday is showing signs of lingering through the rest of the weekend as well.  The always-pessimistic NAM has 500mb heights down around 567 dm.  That’s similar to a cold June upper-level low.  I’ve discounted that since the ECMWF and GFS are not as deep.  And speaking of ignoring some models…you may notice the 7 day forecast doesn’t match the big warm up forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models.  They both say we’ll be 90-96 Tuesday and Wednesday.  Maybe as warm as 85-90 on Monday as well.  When I saw that today, I immediately assumed that the familiar pattern of models backing off on warm spells would continue.  Sure enough, I see the 00z is already cooler for Monday.  But Tuesday and Wednesday are still forecast to be scorchers.  I am breathlessly awaiting the 00z ECMWF.  Well, actually I’m still breathing, but you know what I mean.

On the home front, I had a face to face encounter with Bambi in my garden last night around 12:45am.  He/she was munching on the carrots looking very contented.  My kids accidentally left the gate open.  Hmmm, 2 apple trees appear a little stripped…the battle continues…

I’ll be off the next two days in exchange for working an 8 day stretch when I return from vacation late next week.  So no new posts until at least next Friday, the 8th.  Mark Nelsen