A Short Post

No big changes in the forecast the next few days.  Within the next few hours, easterly flow begins from about 1,000′ to 6,000′.  That continues until early Saturday afternoon.  The reason is high pressure moving south out of Canada and into the Columbia Basin…a bit more like Fall then Summer.  We should get 3-4 millibars easterly gradient in the morning PDX-DLS.  The east wind may briefly make it as far as PDX, but more likely it’ll only be east of I-205.

Theoretically this makes the temperature forecast simple using the Magic Chart.  Tomorrow is about 87, and Saturday will be somewhere between 90 and 95.  I’m leaning towards the high end of that range in the 7 Day Forecast.

Okay, discuss…Mark Nelsen

66 Responses to A Short Post

  1. Got a slight easterly breeze right now off 212th in Gresham. 70F according to my mini weather station.

  2. I would say a good analog, at least for temps is to be at or under 3 degrees of average mean temps.
    Looking at the observations from 2003 and 2008 to date.
    2008 is an average of 3 degrees cooler than 2003, which lands right in the realm of similarity. As far as precip goes, both were near normal for valley locations, and much above for the mountains in the previous winter (remember late 2002-03 season? Was a big year for snow too). The mountains had a rocky start in 2002, but by 2003 had more than made up for it with unusual, high volume storms late in the season (sound familiar???)
    Sources: wundergound mutli-site almanac for Portland and Gresham.
    Mountain Weather: Diddo above as well as: http://members.aol.com/crockeraf/seas03.htm
    With the above info I just don’t see how 03 can be written off. Like Justin said, we are running below normal on temps as far as the year overall is concerned, and with a -pdo and possible nino (though we must wait till tuesday for official word on the direction of the ENSO trends) we could be looking at an active late summer and fall season.
    2003 had a late July/Early August cold, which some models are hinting at something very similar, currently we are running exact average temp for July compared to that of 2003.
    I agree with Jesse and Justin in it being somewhat early to analog, but George Taylor who use to do the winter forecast at OCS had to analog seasons this early for the forecast released in early August. Also, what would be the point of using analogs to forecast fall/winter if we waited until fall/winter to analog for forecasting?

  3. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Already down to a comfortable 65 here. Should be well into the 50s tonight for everyone but the foothills and Gorge, IMO.

  4. Silent_Reader says:

    ** For everyone else please skip this non weather related post and I do apologize for that. **
    I have been a very long reader and have been around since all of your name changes etc. I appreciate everyone’s input and actually come here almost daily to see what’s up. But lately your ramblings have become too much and I am having to scroll through what seems like pages of your text just to see what is really going on with the local weather and other interesting weather topics.
    I know everyone here gives you a lot of slack and I know your situation but you should really self edit a little more and ask yourself if everyone really will care.
    This is not a personal attack against you. You seem like a great person. Just keep the board fun and easy going and keep to the subjects.
    That is just my polite request.

  5. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Excellent…. Exactly what I was looking for to possibly happen. Thanks for the post… If it persist you will likely be muchhhhh warmer tonight.

  6. offroadjosh(kila-7miles west of kalispell Montana) says:

    High winds yesterday!!! had avg winds of 24.3 mph and a high gust of 46mph! avg gusts were (haven’t looked at my station for that yet but it seemed like at a min they were 35-36mph avg gust.. but still 46mph for a high gust!!! and several hit 40-45mph=) and tongiht should be getting in the low to mid 30s for a low!!!!!! its gunna be colddddddddddddddd lol

  7. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …uh, Rob, it’s already starting to surface here…after a few hours of calm, now i’m getting occasional gusty streaks….

  8. Mike (Sweet Home) says:

    Nice sleeping weather again last night with a low of 44.6° then climbed up to 87.1° for a high today.
    Currently 69.5°
    DP 46.6°
    RH 44%
    Winds are calm

  9. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    As of 10PM
    [Surface Gradients]
    PDX-DLS: -1.8
    TTD-DLS: -2.3
    Both PDX/TTD-DLS are increasing as the thermal trough retreats back towards the Coast and high pressure strengthens overnight. My only question as far as overnight lows is will any E wind surface in the Foothills overnight/early Saturday morning, and could it possibly reach E of I-205? If it were to do so areas E of I-205 and the Foothills could be much warmer Saturday morning. If not then we should cool off nicely into the 50’s.

  10. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Nice research and post from Big D…. I think one highlight that stands out to me at least was the 74mph gust at Oroville, Washington as the high pressure built in rapidly when the cold front swept across southern British Columbia and extreme North Central-Northeastern Washington…. Takes a special and extremely rare air mass to produce that…. Imagine if this were to occur in late September.. 10’s – 20’s in the Columbia Basin?…. Maybe 30’s west of the Cascades? Just a thought….

  11. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Triforce, the winter following 2003 was actually pretty good. Those who pointed to the Halloween cold snap as an early sign would have been proved right.

  12. Jesse-Orchards says:

    A good post from “Big_D” on the Western USA weather forums regarding the July cold snap the West is experiencing.
    “Just days after the greatest Pacific Northwest coastal heatwave on record, with the now-famous 108 degrees in Brookings, we have one of the most outstanding mid-summer cold waves in Northern Rockies/Pacific Northwest history ongoing right now. It is being produced by a very unusual Arctic high pressure that has slipped south out of Canada despite the July 11th date, and is the same high pressure that is producing east winds through the gorge this weekend.
    This morning Pullman, WA, and Pendleton Experiment Station, OR both recorded their coldest mid summer temperatures ever. Pullman fell to an impressive 33 degrees, which is the coldest temperature on record there between the dates of July 7th and July 31st, and narrowly missed tying the monthly record of 32 on July 31, 1945. The Pendleton ES station fell to 37 degrees, which tied for the coldest temperature recorded there between the dates of July 8th and August 6th.
    Keep a close eye on western Montana tonight, many July record lows should fall there. In fact, the official NWS forecasts for a number of stations tonight equal or exceed the July record lows for those stations. Butte is forecast to drop to 26, while their July record low is 28 from 7/7/1971. Butte has never fallen to as low as 26 between the dates of June 15th and August 25th, in a period of record that goes back to 1894.”

  13. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …those Brookings temps are what i would expect to see in Phoenix…jeez….

  14. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    I am sure the folks in Brookings are enjoying this.
    59 F
    Yep. Brookings has fallen from 99 F around 2PM to 59 F as of 10PM.
    Amazing what wind reversal will do for you.
    However only a few miles north and up around 1,800′ elevation it is still 86 F with NE winds. Yet another neat micro climate feature in the PNW.

  15. The Triforce says:

    Burrrr: Boring Larry and I hope you continue to post your insights Justin:
    It will be interesting when Winter comes around especially. We NEED new posters from different parts of the PNW. Seriously.
    Storm Team 12 monkey: “Interesting indeed interesting indeed” but whoever said this weather is similar to 2003 doesn’t know what he/she is talking about:
    For one thing like the other poster said: We were in the middle of a freggin El Nino then and it was one of the boringest winter as heck for both the mountains and valleys. d-i-s-g-u-s-t-i-n-g. What does that spell?
    We had a Pineapple express UNLIKE 2003 which brought wide-spread flooding some worse then the 1996 counterpart. Vernonia almost washed away with poor Cherie. I don’t recall that happening in 2003 or even CLOSE. We also had that 1″ of snow on Feb and a 43mmph windstorm too.
    I think in 2003 we were concerned about drought the next summer? There were NO close snow events at all that winter. The only thing exciting was that Halloween Cold Blast which KSLE dipped to 19F or so that made EVERYONE think we will have a harsh and possible early winter. I sure did and I was FOOLED. pffffffft to the Air God for that. :>
    I don’t think I will be able to forgive him for that fool-you blast.
    I bet this blog would have been FULL of insights of the 2002-2003 just from that cold blast alone.
    Atmospheric Wrath would have been doing his gradient checks keeping updates for the trick or treaters and keeping an eye out for a record early transition event. :O
    Western Weather would fight over weather the Elnino of 02 will cause a record breaking drought or a 1969 snowstorm setup: With pages and pages of childish remarks.

  16. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    i was down to 42 this morning…a three blanket night…

  17. Jesse-Orchards says:

    One more thing while we’re at it. No cluttering up other forums or blogs worrying about Western USA forums.

  18. The Triforce says:

    One more thing while we are at it. When the Western Forums do turn into a fight I give up at page 1 or 2 out of 5.

  19. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Clark County is another exception for sure.
    I only got down to 51 F.

  20. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I’m east of I-205 and hit 45 this morning.

  21. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    As you get further west of the I-5 corridor it cools off more. This is especially the case in the Hillsboro, Forest Grove area.
    A line of severe storms is moving into the Minneapolis, Minnesota area.
    [Streaming cam]
    I am working on finding another and better cam.

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