A Short Post

No big changes in the forecast the next few days.  Within the next few hours, easterly flow begins from about 1,000′ to 6,000′.  That continues until early Saturday afternoon.  The reason is high pressure moving south out of Canada and into the Columbia Basin…a bit more like Fall then Summer.  We should get 3-4 millibars easterly gradient in the morning PDX-DLS.  The east wind may briefly make it as far as PDX, but more likely it’ll only be east of I-205.

Theoretically this makes the temperature forecast simple using the Magic Chart.  Tomorrow is about 87, and Saturday will be somewhere between 90 and 95.  I’m leaning towards the high end of that range in the 7 Day Forecast.

Okay, discuss…Mark Nelsen

66 Responses to A Short Post

  1. The Triforce says:

    Oh I forgot: I am at 92F right now. Last night I had a low of 52F I do NOT know where people are getting readings in the 40s from.

  2. The Triforce says:

    Your right. I won’t. I only check about once a week any ways. I guess it doesn’t do any good to post the arguments. Since we do fine here will just leave them be and if they fall apart it’s their own fault.

  3. Justin says:

    Sadly, I was down in California, the San Francisco/Sacramento areas, during the storms on the 2nd and 3rd. Completely missed them. There’ll probably be other chances though this summer, so I’m not too bummed.

  4. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Pretty good temp swing in Hillsboro today with a low of 40 and currently 85. Might squeeze out another degree or two of heating before the sun starts going down. Some spots down the valley are working on 40 degree swings.

  5. Luvry says:

    In a way I don’t blame you Justin, the weather has been slow but I am surprised you didn’t pop in during the storms! Definetely come around a bit more man, you’re input is always much appreciated.

  6. Justin says:

    Hey luvry, whatup? Sorry to have been such a stranger lately on here. I should try and get on more.
    Interesting discussion last night about 2003. FWIW, 2003 had a moderate El Nino going into it and this year had a moderate La Nina. So total opposites on that front. ENSO looks similar though coming into next winter. Talk is of neutral to weak El Nino, which historically is the best range for a snowy Portland winter.

  7. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Yeah a rare occurrence to see you posting here, Justin. You should do it more often (Like old times)

  8. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Appears I am warmer than everyone else.
    86.8 F

  9. Luvry says:

    WHOA!!! Justin, whattup buddy, long time no post! How ya been?

  10. Justin says:

    Triforce, I’m confused, you apparently hate the forums yet you still read them and post over there. Seems kind of hypocritical to me. You are perfectly entitled to your opinion, but if you hate it there then stop posting/reading. Complaining about it every day is unproductive, rude, and hypocritical.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Triforce, Lol You are essentially posting nearly every day conversations, discussions, and arguments from Western. I see these things as well, but I just do not get involved in them. Try not to even let these things bother you or have them register in your mind. I certainly do not because I too would get involved in the banter and probably may become argumentative as well.

  12. The Triforce says:

    Oh my first post made it through WOOO HOO I didn’t NEED to make a second post. Typad was being glitchy and went to a “Page cannot be found”
    I am tat 87.1F and clear skies.

  13. The Triforce says:

    What do you mean downer? Do you mean you have notice dthe arguements.
    Heere is a pretend example of a Western Weather argument: Sorry for typos but Typepad is having fun with playing with me.
    “Does a -PDO and a Strong Lanina result in a Cold and Snowier then average winter for the PNW or do we need more neutral conditions? Started by Mr.Topik from Beavorton OR. Report Post:
    Mr. ArgYOU from Queen Ann Hill in Seattle WA near 300FT. Report Post:
    “Do you mean Portland or Seattle? They are 2 VERY different places.” 😀
    Mr. Topik: I mean Portland we are not that different except our airmasses are a little bit more extreme due to the Columbia Gorge.
    Mr ArgYOU: Oh yeah but we have the Frazer River Valley for more exteremes.
    Mr Topik: But that mostly effects the AREA AROUND Seattle not in it so your point being?
    “I see said the blind man, I hear said the deaf man”
    Mr ArgYOU: But we have had snow longer in the year in fact we had xx amount of snow in March in (insert year here)
    Mr Topik: But we have had negative readings where you DIDN’T. -2F here in 1950. :O
    The Triforce: Brrr that’s dang cold. Must have been a lot of broken water pipes that month for BOTH places. :O
    Mr Topik: shows data set of 1900-1945 then 1950-1975 for Portland and Seattle respectivley.
    ArgYOU only looks at PART of the data set not accepting he is wrong:
    ArgYOU: See in March of 1965 we had a PCV set up bringing this amount of snow to the Puget Sound waters. So there smarty pants. You just can’t handle the fact we are closer to the source then YOU are. PFFFFFFFFFFFFT! Blows raspberries.
    Topik: I am TIRED of arguing with you kids but I will explain it one more time. THE COLUMBIA GORGE DUDE! We even had a HIGH of 16 in 1950. Burrrrrrrrr.

  14. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Rather Minneapolis to Duluth.

  15. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Isn’t our* region.

  16. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Oh WOW…. Highest parameters I’ve seen maybe ever.
    I know this isn’t your region, BUT I had to post these #’s.
    For West-Central Minnesota
    SB CAPE: 6000 J/kg
    ML CAPE: 4500 J/kg
    MU CAPE: 5000-6000 J/kg
    LI: -9 to -11
    Supercell Composite: 25-50
    Significant Tornado: 9-11
    Significant Hail: 3
    Derecho Composite: 8-12
    EVERY cell that has fired on the squall line has gone severe and is spinning rapidly. The squall line is not congealed completely rather discrete supercells lined up next to each other. Most are tornado warned. This situation is beyond the definition of volatile. This could end up being very damaging for areas west of Minneapolis if not Minneapolis itself.

  17. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Sean, funny you mentioned that… I was just looking at the SPC outlooks, Meso Discussions, and that was my next thing to look at Lol.

  18. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Hey Rob! Take a look at the severe weather parameters over Minnesota. Talk about crazy setup there!

  19. The Triforce says:

    Anthony what does downer mean? You mean you have noticed the quarrels? I said it’s cool to debate but it’s NOT cool to let it go to page 100.
    Here is a pretend example of a Westernusawx.com argument going on too long for it’s own good.
    I made the names that way on purpose see if you can figure out why.
    Mr. Topik in Beaverton OR:
    Does a -PNA and a strong Lanina bode well for a snowy PNW winter or do we need more neutral conditions for more ummph?
    ARGYOU: Do you mean for Seattle or Portland?
    Topic starter: “Portland of course! we get exciting weather alot here.”
    Western Arguer: “But Seattle also gets snow and there is more people in our area so we are considered the NW so we get effected by it on a larger scale.
    Topic Starter who lives in Beaverton OR: “We are more inland then you so are prone to more temp extremes both in Winter and Summer while you guys barley reach 90F a summer.”
    Western Weather Arguer: “OH YEA! We are farther north then you and we have had xx amount of snow in March!” ROFLMAO
    Topic starter: “Yeah but we have the FREGGIN EAST WINDS to bring classic blizzards and you don’t get a decent ice storm like we sure do.” ROFL
    Western Weather from Queen Ann Hill at Seattle around 300Ft: “But we can get winds from Frazer River valley in the winter.” :O
    Topic Starter: You are talking about OUTSIDE of Seattle, of course they do. Places like Everett/Bellingham are prime targets just like how Portland gets them. You’re point being…?
    “I see said the blind man, I hear said the deaf man.”
    Western Weather ArgYOU: Humph! We had XX amount of snow in January from a storm somewhere in the 50s.
    Topic Starter: We’ve had ice clog the Columbia Gorge nearly to Astoria in the early 1900s. :> Not to mention temps at negative 2. -2F
    Western Weather: What a baby! Can’t even accept the facts we just are closer to the source. pffffffffft
    Topic starter shows data from 1900 to 1945 for Portland and Seattle which shows Portland having the most and more cold while Seattle has it the longest of the year.
    Western Weather poster who only looks at PART of the data set he likes.
    See we get the PCV zone over us so THERE. Look at those dates in March of 1950 HA! Seattle got some while Portland did NOT. Must be the ‘Columbia Gorge effect.’ PFFFFFFFT! blows raspberries.
    Topic starter: I give up with you kids and I am tired of wasting my breath but that was just ONE March so what?
    (fight goes on for another five pages of rethrotical comments, Where in most forums the topic would be LOCKED with maybe a warning given to anyone involved if it’s that childish) The data set is long ignored and forgotten. 😦 😦 😦
    The Data set: Is anyone going to read me? HELLLLLLOOOOO? Posters bloggers anyone? “The cheese stands alone, The cheese stands alone, High Ho the Dario The Cheese stands alone.”
    I don’t know why you lot love these kinds of threads. Oh well I guess somepeople have the time and energy to argue and we are in a free country.

  20. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Good afternoon everyone.
    Nice research from you all. I have to say I’m quite impressive how far you’ve come along Jesse and Luvry. You both excel in this area as where I know very little about it. I hope to learn soon and reading your information is very valuable towards that.
    I hope we do end up with a -PDO year it could make for some real snow situations instead of our typical eye gouging flirtations with the magical white stuff. (Snow people, snow.)
    Well as of 1:00 PM I am somewhat intrigued to see what looks like a NNE-E wind somewhat encompassing the entire PDX/KVUO metro area. It appears that it is having a bit more success in surfacing below the 1,000′ plateau.
    My temp has risen over 25 F since 10:30 AM, so a definite nice warm-up is well underway.
    [My Weather Station Current Observations]
    Temp: 84.8 F
    Dewpoint: 43 F
    Wind: Switching from NNW-N 4-12mph to NE-E 6-11mph. A more noticeable trend to E however.
    PDX-DLS: -1.6
    TTD-DLS: -2.1
    OTH-GEG: -5.0
    Both PDX/TTD-DLS have held steady the past few hours. The Cross-Cascade gradient has increased steadily all day.
    AST-PDX: +1.2
    The Astoria to Portland onshore surface gradients indicate a light NW marine push probably only advancing to the Ranier, Kelso, Scappoose areas, but nothing further.
    OTH-SLE: -0.2
    OTH-EUG: -0.0
    Both North Bend to Salem/Eugene SW surface gradients indicate very light/flat with a very slight weakening trend over the past 6 hours.

  21. Luvry says:

    Hey Andrew, here’s a link that will give you some info on the PDO. Not sure you were saying if you didn’t know anything about it or you were just referring to the -PDO.
    Nonetheless, here ya go:

  22. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Generally speaking, a -PDO phase should mean generally colder and wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest, with better chances for lowland snow and arctic outbreaks. Cooler Summers are a likely side-effect as well, though not necessarily cloudier or wetter.
    The last -PDO phase was from roughly 1945-1975.

  23. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …gusty east wind driving the temp up here…up from 68 to 76 in less than an hour..

  24. Andrew Johnson says:

    So I see that some of you have mentioned that the PDO has switched to negative after 30 years of being positive. In ya’lls opinions, what exactly does that mean?

  25. Luvry says:

    Jesse, I agree, Western is not all that bad. I think the key over there is to make sure you back up what you say, if you don’t, you’ll get drilled.

  26. Jesse-Orchards says:

    For the record, I don’t think the Western US forums are that bad at all. Sure some bad eggs get on there sometimes, and there can be heated debates with sometimes strong, if not humorous, rhetoric, but all in all I have learned a lot over there.

  27. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …east wind kicked up here about an hour and a half or so ago……sure feels dry compared to the humid airmasses of late!…

  28. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Agreed luvry, I don’t think healthy debate is an issue. As long as people aren’t attacking each other personally.
    A chilly morning here, with a low of 45. The coldest July low I’ve recorded at this location, in fact. Looks like record lows fell in many parts of Oregon and Washington this morning.
    Anthony, like luvry, I’m going to wait until later in the season to pick out any good analogs. I honestly don’t feel 2003 is a good match though, even though the following winter was the best we’ve seen in years.

  29. Luvry says:

    Anthony, no worries, it’s nice to see people back up thier thoughts with information to justify them. Thanks for your thoughts. I think for me, it’s to early to pick out any analog for this coming winter. Come mid september or october, I’ll start looking a lot closer myself.
    Steve P always goes in depth with his analogs, I’d be interested in hearing what he sees right now as well. Maybe I’ll email him and tell him to post.
    Phil, what a refreshing morning! Loved it! Especially after going through those smokey and muggy nights/mornings 2 weeks ago, YUCK! Felt like an early fall morning out there!!!

  30. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Cool out there this morning. If Hillsboro Airport’s low of 40 holds up it will break the old record of 41 from ’81. I noticed that Vernonia had a low of 38! I can tell you that my ears got cold on the ride in this morning. No wind though. Any colder and I will have to start thinking about cold weather gear, lol. Actually did wear heavier gloves.
    Otherwise, yesterday was about perfect for me with a high around 75.
    Interesting with the cool (cold?) air coming down out of Canada. If this was winter, we could be looking at a cold east wind event.

  31. I’ve never actually been to the western weather forums until recently (this week) and that place is a total downer. I re-read my post hear and it appears a bit negative and I didn’t intended it to be, so I apologize ahead of time for that.
    49F here, feels down right chilly! We are going to have one heck of a temperature rise tomorrow, will likely drop another degree or so before long and then boom, over 90F by the afternoon.

  32. The Triforce says:

    If you wanna star gaze with me you can do it here for MORE then free using the GUI license.
    A virtual stargazer program used in planetariums: This program can produce accurate sky conditions of your choosing with some pre built landscapes. Choose the time of the day and year then gaze into the heavens. Only SOME of the things it can do supposedly
    Cmon to Silverton and star gaze on your PC telescope!

  33. The Triforce says:

    Let’s not turn this into Western Weather forums now okay? We are MUCH more mature then the Mods there and let’s prove it. 😀
    KPTV Weather Monkey: “Ohh ee aaa Me do not like fights fights scary” rattles on cage.
    I am at 54.3F pretty chilly for Silverton as I live on top of an almost 200ft hill. Thus causing me to not have as much cold temps as they rest of you valley folks.
    I have crystel clear skies right now with the stars shining brightley even for THIS light polluting town. Cmon out and star gaze with me.

  34. I am counting from the start of spring on. And I am not sure where you are getting the data from, or if your memory is serving correctly, we did have late, non-sticking snow very late in the season (April) down to below 500′ that year. Mountain snows persisted much later at lower elevations than normal, and the amount of actual warm days above 80 to date are very similar, in timing as well.
    We had a few thunderstorms that summer as well, cooler than normal water temperatures (that year and this year) do to late mountain snows added to it.
    When I was sitting around mid June feeling like the clouds couldn’t stay away, I cought myself feeling like I had recently felt the same way about a recent previous season.
    July was an overall dry and sunny month that year, as this one is shaping out to be. If we see unseasonably cold weather near the end of this month or beginning of next month it will brings things together much more.
    Also note the similar fire seasons, northern ca had seen a large amount of forest fires, but late in the season, california saw some big-time fires in october.
    If you want a recent opposite, look at the spring/summer of 05.
    I went and double checked all the numbers from that year and I must be missing something because I don’t think two years get any closer to resemblance without being the same. I happen to remember 2003 very very clearly due to many other factors and that is what prompted me to look up observations from that time period.
    What we want to do is figure out why two years with different PDO and ENSO figures would analog so well. I think long range forecasting relies too heavily on inaccurate PDO+ENSO figures, and should look to weight observations more heavily. The problem in doing so though, is that stats only tell you so much, they may see PDX one day as 80F under Partly Sunny Skies one day, and the same day in another year, see a 74F and thunderstorms, when the two days may have been very very similar with the exception that the thunderstorms DID happen around the same time in year 1, but they happened slightly north.
    Let’s say 2003 was a bad analog, cool, but what is your opinion on a good one? With the recent lack in solar activity, unusual -pdo and nina, I am really stoked to do some predictions based on similar years. And if my data is wrong, fine, but I am more worried about getting my hands on some good analogs rather than stick to my guns if mine are wrong.

  35. Jesse-Orchards says:

    If you’re basing a 2003 analog off of observed weather conditions, you’re in even more trouble, lol.
    First off, 2002-2003 was one of the least snowy winters in the Cascades in recent memory. In fact, there wasn’t even any remotely cold or wintery weather to speak of in the valley. Compare that to the winter leading into 2008. Snowiest at Govt. Camp in over 30 years, massive low elevation snowpack, roofs collapsing in the town of Detroit, Oregon due to all of the snow, highest snowpack ever recorded on Saddle Mountain in the Coast Range, the list goes on. Plus numerous brushes with cold/snowy weather in the valley, though admittedly it never added up to much.
    Spring 2003 was cool and gloomy, but had nowhere near the anomalously cold conditions that 2008 saw early on, including widespread low-elevation snow and record-breaking cold in late March and mid April.
    May 2003 was practically the diametric opposite of May 2008. May ’03 was cooler than average, with an extremely cold trough centered on the middle of the month. May ’08 was warmer than average, with a record-breaking heat ridge cetered on the middle of the month, giving PDX its earliest 95 degree reading ever.
    Same story for June ’03 vs. June ’08. June 2003 had a very warm start, with four days in the 90s the first ten days of the month. 2008 had the coolest first ten days of June ever recorded at PDX, with five of those days only in the 50s. Both Junes ended on warm notes, but nothing like the 100 degree day at the end of this June, followed by thunderstorms the next day.
    July started out seasonable in 2003, with a pretty run of the mill morning cloud, afternoon sunshine pattern. This July started out with the PNW in the midst of a very active thunderstorm pattern.
    So, in essence, two very different years, so far. In fact I have trouble thinking of two recent years that could be more opposite.

  36. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Our temps certainly aren’t average to above average down here this evening. PDX is colder than SEA right now, in fact. Records will fall in Oregon as well as Washington tomorrow morning.

  37. When I calculate analogs, I generally do so based on observed weather conditions, and generally pay little attention to PDO or ENSO. Reason being, for the last 6-7 years, they really haven’t stayed consistent enough to really judge weather forecasting in the long term.
    ENSO is showing signs of flattening out, may even stay negative (slight nina), which would make this year the first -pdo and nina for a while if I’m not mistaken.
    ^ A good recap of spring-summer 2003, the similarities will be pretty obvious just from that post.
    Places is WA tonight may hit record lows, interesting to think that just a couple hundred miles to our north people are seeing well below average temps in the morning and we are all sitting pretty with average to above average temps.

  38. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Here is a surface pressure gradient I often do not post.
    The Dalles to Pendleton
    DLS-PDT: +0.1
    Onshore flow along the eastern Gorge/lower Columbia Basin has decreased steadily since the peak of +2.9 at 3PM.
    An even better indicator of the pressure pattern change that is developing behind the system that pushed east of northeastern Washington earlier is seen in the North Bend to Spokane surface pressure gradient.
    OTH-GEG: +1.5
    A dramatic drop off in onshore flow across the region is noted here. Is has been diminishing since its peak of +12.5 at 3PM. I would expect to see this during the Fall as colder higher pressure slips south from British Columbia, but to see this in July is fairly impressive and we do not often see this.
    PDX-DLS: +2.7
    TTD-DLS: +2.2
    Western Gorge surface gradient is also on the decrease and will continue throughout the night. Perhaps by day break it will have turned flat or lightly offshore.
    Good night all.
    – Rob

  39. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Personally, I really see no striking similarity between this year and 2003.
    It’s looking as if the PDO has finally flipped to negative, after a 30 year positive stretch, so you may have to dig a little further back to get some REALLY good analogs for the coming winter. B)
    I am pretty stoked to see what is pretty much a shot of Canadian air blasting into the NW today. Look for record lows to be in jeopardy tomorrow morning in Western Oregon and Washington. Let’s just hope that we can get this kind of thing in January.
    Spokane has a current DP of 17. Just crazy.

  40. Luvry says:

    Hey Anthony, I saw you mention 03 as the strongest analog…what were the indicies like in 03?

  41. Saw a similar patter in 2003 (July). What is nuts is how close of an analog this year has been to just 5 years ago.
    East wind is not uncommon in summer for sure. But how we are getting it is neat.

  42. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Apparently the wind speeds I posted were only a fraction of the story. NWCN has live coverage from Spokane where the Spokane Valley area is under a state of emergency now. They reports winds of 60-70mph downed trees and powerlines sparking fast moving wildfires/brush fires. Sounds like a few structures/homes may have already been lost with more threatened.
    This is nuts for July!

  43. Luvry says:

    What encourages me is the fall/winter like pattern in the summer…wonder if that is a sign of things to come this winter? Can you imagine, constant arctic air to the east of the cascades accompanied with constant east winds blowing into PDX…overruning systems, OH MY, I should really stop thinking about the upcoming winter possibilities but I can’t help it, I’m a cold weather, windstorm, snow, ice type guy 🙂

  44. Atmospheric Wrath says:

    Mark, thanks for the update.
    Impressive wind speeds as the unseasonable and unusually strong cold front blasted through southern British Columbia and extreme north central-northeastern Washington.
    [British Columbia]
    Penticon – 68mph
    Castlegar – 55mph
    Kelowna – 45mph
    Oroville – 72mph, 74mph
    Omak – 59mph
    Kettle Falls – 51, 54mph
    Spokane – 47mph
    Bonnersferry – 54mph
    Sandpoint – 44mph
    Coeur d’Alene – 43mph
    One more interesting observation.
    Hope and Agassiz, British Columbia both have developed NE winds in the Fraser River Gorge. The pressure is rising rather rapidly also. This leads me to believe the chances of this back door cold front through the Columbia Gorge happening are very real now.

  45. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I miss those cool temps from the old 7 day! I can live with low 80’s though.
    I think I’m 1st? Even though Mark has yet to actually make the post.

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