Well, we get those cold showers the next 2-3 days as a trough of low pressure swings inland, behind a cold front late tonight.
As of 11pm the front looks pretty vigorous, with strong echoes now moving into radar range off the North Oregon Coast. There have been no cloud to ground (or cloud to ocean) strikes in the last 6 hours, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flash or hear a rumble of thunder as the front moves through late tonight. But I sure wouldn’t stay up all night waiting for it…most likely we’ll see nothing other than brief, heavy rain towards daybreak.
I notice lifted index and instability in general is not so great behind the front tomorrow OR Wednesday. So basically we get lots of onshore flow and frequent showers, especially near elevated terrain and up against the Coast/Cascade ranges.
Tons of uncertainty with the Friday-Monday forecast. Latest 00z GFS has much stronger troughing with a better chance of showers, instead of an upper-level ridge approaching the Coast. There’s always time to change the forecast the next couple of days, but my current 76-78 degree forecast is in jeopardy.
On the home front, I decided the ground was warm enough to plant more "warm weather" veggies. Plus the rain the next few days will soak the ground nicely. Since I live in a colder and wetter area, I’m still holding off on the real warm stuff (tomatoes, melons, squash). AND, most important, my trees are just about done blooming and no one has left the gate open…so Bambi hasn’t visited (and mauled) anything so far…Mark Nelsen