Holding a Steady Course

SnapshotODOT sent out this info today in a news release.  Of course McKenzie Pass closes each winter.  It’s Highway 242 between Belknap Springs and Sisters…the most direct route between Eugene and Bend/Redmond areas.  The opening date varies from year to year.  Looks like the big snow year of 1999 was the latest opening ever, in mid summer.

Now, what about the subject for the post.  Well, as I was preparing for the 10pm show, I was thinking that I’ve reached the "info saturation stage" for our approaching weather "event".  Our hot weather has been well forecast by models, so well that only minor forecast details have changed in the last 2 days.  What can happen in these data-rich Internet days is a sort of information overload.  Every few hours new info comes in.  It could be MOS temps from 3 different models, 850mb temp forecasts, or surface temp forecasts from each different model and it’s respective runs.  For example…Thursday:  MOS from GFS, NAM, and NGM (00z) show a high of either 86, 83, or 80, respectively.  Surface temps from the GFS show 88, from NAM, 79.  So lots of numbers are always flying around in weather circles.  My special chart shows a high of 88-91.  It’s pretty reliable in general.  What’s the point?  Well, for 3 days we’ve shown a 90 Thursday and 95 Friday on our 7 Day forecast.  My theory has been increasingly one of "hold it steady" the last few years.  In my younger days (1990s), I would flip flop with each new model run, adjusting temps every 12 hours.  Now I figure there’s no need to change unless models make an obvious change.  Basically numbers are whacking you on the side of the head constantly in this business, so you need to focus your sights forward.  Pretty deep eh?  So I didn’t change the 7 day forecast yesterday or today for the Thursday-Sunday period.  If the marine push starts slightly faster Saturday evening, then Sunday may only be in the 70s, or maybe Saturday will stay in the 80s…but no need to change for now.

I did notice one thing:  It’s going to be crazy warm in the mountains Friday-Saturday.  Temps in the "free-air" at 2000′ will be above 70 degrees from Friday morning through Saturday evening!  This elevation has been in the 40s the past few days.  The snow pack is definitely going to collapse a bit, especially up on Mt. Hood where .50" of rain has fallen since this morning.

Otherwise my thinking hasn’t changed since last night’s post.  We’re going from 70 or so tomorrow to about 90 Thursday afternoon.  We start with east wind Friday and a thermal trough all the way out at the Coast, then it goes calm by late afternoon…with +22 deg C. 850mb temps, that’s the perfect setup for mid 90s.  Conceivably it could even be warmer…if it was early-mid June, 100 would be more likely…Mark Nelsen

25 Responses to Holding a Steady Course

  1. Mat ne portland says:

    Starting to feel, smell, look, and taste like summer outside. Tomorrows going to feel like a dream.

  2. Hi today 74°
    currently 69°, RH 59%

  3. TheTriforce from the now where town of Silverton OR near the gardens. says:

    70F and whoops now down to 69.8F with a DP of 54, Relative humidity 55 percent making it feel a tad bit muggy.

  4. …feels like the jungle out there…..

  5. Definitely starting to feel the effects of the thermal trough now with the northerly winds developing. I agree it definitely feels a bit muggy out there.

  6. Luvry says:

    Yup Derek, and a Heat index of 75, not very common for us.

  7. Derek-West Gresham says:

    70 at PDX at 4pm..high temps should a bit later than usual tonight because of the warming atmosphere.

  8. Hillsboro airport reporting 70 degrees at 3:00pm. I’m down HWY 26 by Sunset High right now and as soon as the sun came out it became warm and muggy as well. Noticed some east winds showing up this afternoon in the local METAR reports.

  9. Luvry says:

    The sun is definetely making itself known now. You can feel the warmth in the air, fairly muggy out as well. Would venture a guess we’re around 70 here in tanasbourne.

  10. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    65.7 degrees. I think it’s gonna make it.

  11. It felt quite warm and humid during my ride in to work this morning with temps and dew points in mid to lower 50’s. Easily the warmest morning for riding since at least last October.
    Hillsboro Record Highs
    15th 94° 1996 Forecast – 87°
    16th 93° 1956 Forecast – 94°
    17th 97° 1956 Forecast – 89°
    It will be interesting to see if we can break any of these records out here. I think the Friday and Saturday temps may be forecasted a little bit low. Best chance will be Friday.

  12. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    I was up to 63 this morning around 10:30, then clouds rolled in and had some drizzle. Temp dropped to 59, but is now going back up. We seemed to be about 10 degrees warmer this morning, but leveling out with everyone else now. Bring on the sunshine.

  13. 10:50 am
    Drizzle has stopped. Mostly cloudy with some clearing.
    Maybe the low 70’s isn’t a stretch today.

  14. TV Weather Producer says:

    NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement !
    http://www.weather.gov/portland

  15. IceKeeg - workin' in Tigard says:

    Balmy morning. I always find the first balmy/humid morning of the year to be pleasant – kind of reminds me of vacationing in Florida. But that’s about where my love of humidity stops.

  16. 10:00 am
    Cloudy and a heavy drizzle.
    I find todays forecast suspect.
    currently 55.6°, RH 89%

  17. Paul(orPbo9) says:

    RE: Plants
    Marks right about stressed plants..by
    Friday evening there will be a lOT of
    brown flowers- Lilacs, Rhododendrons,
    Azaleas… weird spring.

  18. Mat ne portland says:

    Pretty warm out there right now at 57.6 and rising. 80% humidity. Should actually feel warmer than it really is today due to the “heavier” air.

  19. Camas~Mom says:

    It better get a move on if it’s going to be 70 today! It’s cold and RAINING here. Bleck!

  20. offroadjosh(kila montana) says:

    snow…. again last night while bear hunting! and yet…… its gunna be 75 tmrw!

  21. Jessica says:

    Low 100s would be okay… lol.. i want a little heat… Thanks for the update… 😀

  22. TheTriforce says:

    Well at least we have AC so no need to complain. Let’s cook up some heat. by the way: It’s 57F here and the same as my last post.

  23. Mback (TTD) says:

    I guess we all know why math is such an important subject when it comes to getting your degree in Meteorology. Thanx for the update.

  24. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Let the fun begin…I say 96 for Friday.

  25. First! And…looking like low 100s here.

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