A Short Post

SnapshotA short post tonight because I was too worked up preparing to watch the latest BSG episode…priorities once again.

Earlier this evening I was looking at the record highs for the next 7 days.  I notice that May 15, 2006 was 93 degrees.  Of course my short-term memory couldn’t quite remember that (even though it was only 2 years ago)…the May heatwaves are jumbled together in my head.  So luckily, this weather blog is archived!  Check out the right side of the screen and you’ll see every month since December 2005 is lined up.  Go to around May 11th 2006, and you’ll see that models had been forecasting 850mb temps around +16 or so, then ended up forecasting right around +20deg C.  We had 5 millibars easterly flow through the Gorge on that one day as well.  The maps for this next Thursday are almost exactly the same, so I figure there’s no reason not to put temps in the 90-95 degree range.

Okay, out of time…so have a good weekend…Mark Nelsen

38 Responses to A Short Post

  1. Personally I just find it unlikely.. I mean a low dropping BELOW 960mb during May? I am thinking 971-975mb.

  2. If the low out around 160w does deepen to 958mb, that does seem strong for this time of year. More like something we would see in the fall. But that’s just my recollection. It would be interesting to look at historical data for lows in the Pacific, but I’m not sure where to find it. Wolf Read’s site perhaps.
    I agree Cherie, Tuesday is not shaping up as forecast a few days ago. The question is when will the rain start, it may be in the afternoon, and how much?

  3. I have no clue about this, but maybe your late season snow, and bad severe weather season is a product from the strong La Nina we had? If someone knows please chime in.

  4. offroadjosh(kila montana) says:

    yet again i wake up to snow! and snowed a few times off and on today…. kinda weird seeing 2inches of snow on the ground in mid may….

  5. Not that it matters either way, but yeah I saw it read 1996. People make mistakes, but sometimes it isn’t always necessary to point them out, or correct someone just to make a point. I mean who cares in my opinion.
    So who’s looking forward to the dreary drizzly muck tomorrow? Besides me I meant….

  6. Mback (TTD) says:

    Indeed, it did say 1996 earlier when Heat said that. I got yo back Heat….

  7. Ok I have been out of the loop unable to post lately. First I wanted to say Happy Mother’s Day to all the Mother’s out there. I also wanted to say rest in peace to all of the tornado victims in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Georgia.
    Our “heat wave” is starting to evolve as we speak. The warm front is offshore albeit not a very strong one. The ridge to build is somewhat flat right now, but it is off to the southwest right now. Once the warm front lift north we will warm nicely. Also another key factor is apparently a very strong low pressure center is now developing far offshore in the North Pacific. As it intensifies and builds north-northeastward into the Gulf of Alaska it is going to serve to pump the forecast huge ridge of high pressure over us.
    Speaking of that system… this REALLY stands out to me.
    Per the latest NCEP/NOAA 00z forecast map a low currently developing out near 165-170W is projected to deepen rapidly to 958mb once it nears 157 W, 46 N.

    NCEP/NOAA 00z forecast map

    If this indeed true and verifies wouldn’t this be extremely unusual for mid May?
    – Dr. Rob

  8. Aleta- west gresham says:

    It did get fixed. šŸ™‚ I checked when Heat said that and it did indeed say 1996! I do believe i need to get those tomato plants into the garden between showers tomorrow!

  9. Oh sure….last week it said Tues was gonna be 72….just right for an outing before the heatwave arrives. So now that the plans are all set for an outdoor day at the Zoo……..it’s gonna rain!! Bluck….not much in favor of strolling along all day in the rain. Hmmmmm, best start figuring out a “Plan B” ugh!

  10. Luvry says:

    Well first, I’d say if you’re gonna call Mr. “Nelson” out, make sure you spell his last name correctly šŸ™‚
    Second, Mr. Nelsen said this “So luckily, this weather blog is archived! Check out the right side of the screen and you’ll see every month since December 2005 is lined up. Go to around May 11th 2006, and you’ll see that models had been forecasting 850mb temps around +16 or so, then ended up forecasting right around +20deg C. We had 5 millibars easterly flow through the Gorge on that one day as well.” I don’t see the 1996 in there so either he’s fooling with us and went in to correct it or Mr. Triforce…make sure you check his quotes before you call it out. By the way Heat, are you ready for the Heat??? It’s gonna get hot!
    I got yo back Mark!

  11. Nof out near Carlton says:

    I think Mr. Nelson was refering to 2006, perhaps he’s having a seinor moment….he did just have a birthday….WOW looken HOT later this week

  12. TheTriforce says:

    Dec 1998 is as far back as shown in the archive and you can’t visit the page cause it says it’s not in the archive. Weird huh.

  13. TheTriforce says:

    quote from Mr.Nelson. “So luckily, this weather blog is archived! Check out the right side of the screen and you’ll see every month since December 2005 is lined up. Go to around May 11th 1996, and you’ll see that models had been forecasting 850mb temps around +16 or so, then ended up forecasting right around +20deg C. We had 5 millibars easterly flow through the Gorge on that one day as well.”
    Whoops Mr,Nelson made a typo in the front page. He said May 11th 1996 and we don’t carry that archive. :D. I don’t think KPTV even had a homepage yet. (checks Wayback Machine online)

  14. Thanks all…lets just say that i hated the double nickle speed limit, and i dont much like it in age….
    party is up the Clackamas close to Austin Hot Springs, Thursday morn thru Sat…..

  15. Derek-West Gresham says:

    00z suggests we could be in the 90s Thursday-Saturday still. Thursday would be 88-92. Friday-Saturday could be up in the 93-97 range.

  16. Happy Birthday Larry!
    You sound like you need a vacation in sunny Hillsboro. Partly cloudy today and only one light sprinkle around noon. Still a cool west to northwest wind though. Barbequed steaks for Mothers Day and no problems with the weather.
    I hope all the Moms out there had a happy Mothers Day.
    Hight of 59.1. Currently 47.3 degrees.

  17. Luvry says:

    Yeah, Larry, HAPPY BDAY…rainy? haha, been mostly sunny all day here with a few intermittent clouds.
    Yes, I agree, happy Mothers day to anyone that qualifies!

  18. Mback (TTD) says:

    Happy Bday Larry!!! What are you 21 now or something?? Here’s to another 21 some odd years….

  19. …and, Happy Mothers Day to anyone that qualifies!!

  20. …rainy 5/11 only means one thing…yet another rainy B-day….!

  21. TheTriforce says:

    quote: “I am NOT ready for this of weather yet!!! Anyways, fired up the AC to make sure it was ready to work it’s butt off thur/fri/sat.”
    Sounds like this is a bit early for here? Record territory? perhaps. Maybe, if this happens all at once summer will be cooler. I hope so. Let’s hope mother nature can squeeze out the heat in spring and make summer nicer. šŸ™‚
    It’s 63.1F right now so no heat wave here and mostly clear skies. šŸ™‚ Hi Mr,Sun! šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

  22. Camas~Mom says:

    by “he” I was meaning my husband – sorry I knew what I was thinking! lol

  23. Camas~Mom says:

    Mark – I heard the hybrid say that too. I thought maybe she was giving instructions to Kara, but still a little too jumbled. And now Deanna is coming back from being black boxed and she HAS seen the final 5 so next week will probably still end in mystery, but maybe a tad closer to knowing something? After this last episode he looked at me and said, “and you think Lost leaves you hanging!” lol!

  24. Luvry says:

    I am NOT ready for this of weather yet!!! Anyways, fired up the AC to make sure it was ready to work it’s butt off thur/fri/sat.
    Derek, I notice today’s 12z tone’s it down just a tad but nothing signifigant, 593m heights, 850 temps 20-22 degrees, and 500mb temps generally 7-8 (bottoming out at 6.8). Still nothing to sneeze at whatsoever, it is gonna get hot! I’m thinking we see 95, OUCH! As for any convection, don’t see anything at this point but I’m sure we’ll all be watching for a low on the maps forming off the S Oregon/N Cal coast. Hope everyone is well, get your AC’s primed, it’s gonna be a HOT latter of the week!

  25. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Looking forward to spell of warm to hot weather…does not look like there should be about of convection any time soon…my wife does not want a repeat of May 06 here in Eugene…quarter sized hail did quite a bit of damage to the garden, particularly the hostas.

  26. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    00z is even hotter again. Looks like 593dm heights, -5C at 500mb and +23C at 850mb. All of those are getting to the point where we could be talking 95-100. Oh yeah, east winds should blow a bit during the whole thing so Thursday-Saturday we could really be cooking.

  27. TheTriforce says:

    Hey, Mr,Nelson (imitates AOL voice) You’ve got mail. Seriously.
    Weather report.
    (yawns) Here is the night report and I am going to ‘hit the hay’. (cow poops on hay) Yuck. It’s 49.5F after a toasty low of 51 at 6:30am when I woke up. It’s overcast and I wish the sun would ‘come out’ or the stars.
    I got my jaw misaligned which causes my whole body to be tense and tight so I am not doing real good right now. šŸ˜¦

  28. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Latest 18z GFS looks a bit toastier again.
    I believe it had 592dm heights and +21 850mb temps, but on Friday now. With a bit of an east wind to go with it that looks like a good 90-95 degrees. Either way a few records look to fall.

  29. Mark Nelsen says:

    Yes, this episode (just saw it), was a great one. But I agree, everyone’s dying of cancer, getting killed by someone else, or going nuts. Didn’t the rest of the people in the room hear the hybrid tell Kara she’s going to be the death of everyone? As always, so many questions…but excellent storytelling fo sure.

  30. Camas~Mom says:

    Just got done watching BSG – it’s getting good guys! I like that the storyline is more defined and not jumping around so much (i.e., we’re really focused on getting to Earth as opposed to worker’s rights, etc.). So who does everyone think is the “ONE” to be revealed? I think the obvious choices are either Kara or Lee, so that makes me think possibly it’s someone else. What if it’s the Laura Roslin? Food for thought….
    As for weather, could live without tomorrow (being as it’s my day and all), but bring on the warmth the rest of the week! I’m all for it! Yipeeeeeee

  31. Robert in Vancouver says:

    Bring on the heat!

  32. Nof out near Carlton says:

    Felix: don’t let Cottle take my leg….sounds alittle like Dances W/Wolves. Then theres Ensign nobody who goes on the away misson and gets whacked…Is it me or is BSG orders of magnitude darker this season? Blood and guts everywhere. I fear there isn’t gonna be anyone left by the time they make it to Earth. Weatherwise…bring on the heat..my freshly varnished floors could use alittle hot soak to cure them! What a gloomy day today is?!

  33. sds--N. Clark Co. says:

    Mark
    So it shall be in the 90’s next week?? It is about time!!

  34. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Thank you, Mark. Enjoy your weekend as well. šŸ™‚

  35. 1st!
    Thanks for the update Mark, and the hot forecast. It will be nice to see this. Now any way of bargaining with mother nature for a chance at some convection? I Just got done reading May 2006 blog and I noticed there was a lot of convection and even severe weather in Oregon that May. How soon I had forgotten.

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