Chilly, Then Hot

SnapshotI admit I’ve been a bit negligent lately.  I try to post something to this blog every day.  Lately the weather has been pretty slow too.

The constant onshore flow of marine air the last 2 days has really taken a toll on our high temps.  We’ve stayed in the mid-upper 50’s both days…only 56 today.  A slight upper-level ridge gives us warming throughout the atmosphere tomorrow and Saturday, which should help break up the marine layer.  As a result temps warm up to normal.  That’ll be nice.

Next weather maker is a cold front for late Saturday.  Quite a drop in the freezing level from around 10,000′ midday Saturday to under 4,000′ Sunday A.M.  Not a whole lot of moisture either with the front or behind it for Sunday.  Interesting how April and May have been chilly, but defiinitely on the dry side.  Looking at the 7-10 day maps, it sure looks to be mainly dry as well.

Speaking of 7-10 days:  Models are in some pretty good agreement on a strong ridge developing in the perfect location to give us unusually hot weather for mid May next Wednesday-Friday.  As you might expect, model solutions are varying day by day and run to run.  Some are way up in record territory for temps.  I see the 00z GFS again has 850mb temps up to beyond 20deg C and 592dm heights at 500mb.  The 00z GEM (Canadian) has gone nuts with a 596dm contour over southern Oregon next Friday.  If it was June, July, or August, that would give us 100 degree weather with offshore flow.  We’ve never been above 93 before May 22nd in Portland.  Twice in the last 7 years we’ve hit 95 in the 2nd half of May, both times 850mb temps at SLE were either 21 and 22 degrees at the peak of the heat.  This forecast ridge could produce those same temps.  One fly in the ointment is the 12z ECMWF.  It was significantly flatter with lower heights…we’ll see if it gets back on board at 00z or is a harbinger of flatter flow that the other models will follow.  Either way, get ready for a warmup!  Mark Nelsen

28 Responses to Chilly, Then Hot

  1. TheTriforce says:

    Cherie I would prefere it if you call me TheTriforce but if it’s easier for you to remember me by the old name then go ahead if it really helps you that much.
    Now about the volcano. Since Volcano’s are causing so much emissions then we should tear them all down to save our planet from ‘Climate Change’ or how about make a law that requires mufflers over the tops to lessen the smog when they blow.
    Volcanic mufflers. It would make the world a much cleaner place. 😀 HA HA HA HA! Media brainwashed crowd chants at the top of Mt St Helens: “Ban Volcanoes,Ban Volcanoes,Ban Volcanoes!”

  2. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    7-day shows even higher now

  3. offroadjosh(kila-7miles west of kalispell Montana) says:

    haha im tired of snow! this was kinda cool thou! seeing snow in may hahah

  4. Heat….Mark is calling for 90 on Thurs & 88 on Fri. Sounds like a heatwave to me :0)

  5. The heat wave sure looks like it’s going to happen still. Down here we might hit 100 or at least come close.

  6. TheTriforce says:

    Wow no one is talking about the heat-wave anymore. Guess it’s not gonna happen. Good then.

  7. At that elevation in Montana you may see some more snow before summer sets in. When camping in the Blues here in Oregon at about 5,000 feet in late May or early June my wife and I woke up to about 2 inches of fresh snow and it was still snowing. Caught us completely by surprise!Unfortunately, I had come down with the flu overnight and we had to leave.
    My family was driving accross the Rockies in late July sometime in the early 70’s and we ran into snow somewhere around Independence Pass in Colorado in July. I called my father and he said it definitely did happen. That was at about 9,000 feet and it wasn’t sticking.

  8. offroadjosh(kila-7miles west of kalispell Montana) says:

    um if i remember correctly.. my gps said like 3850ft…

  9. Pretty Cool Josh!
    Do you know what your elevation there is?

  10. offroadjosh(kila-7miles west of kalispell Montana) says:

    had a suprise snow today! only stuck for a few mind then melted but still… snow in may!!!!

  11. TheTriforce says:

    sixty three degrees. and sunny with farm haze though ruining it. 😦 I hope this heat wave causes the east winds to bring us super blue skies.

  12. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Very nice day out! Mostly sunny and 58 right now, should be aiming for about 65 later on in the afternoon. There is a nice breeze and the skies are robin’s egg blue. Honestly, I would take this kind of weather over 85-95F anytime.

  13. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Considering it is still May, I would say it is likely we see some sort of big drop in temps following the heat ridge, hopefully accompanied by some t-storm action.

  14. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I sure hope we can get really hot followed by thunderstorms followed by a big cool down. That will be tough to do though.

  15. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Several new record lows were set or tied in Central/Eastern Oregon this morning. Seems so easy to do lately. Redmond made it down to 21.

  16. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Rob, you may be thinking of April 2004. The last 6 days of that month were all above 70F, 4 of which were in the low-mid 80s. April 26th, 2004 featured our earliest 86 degree reading on record, if I remember correctly.

  17. Jesse-Orchards says:

    2006

  18. Mat ne portland says:

    What year was that Jesse?

  19. Jesse,
    I went back and looked at my records. 96.7° at my place in SE Hillsboro on May 15. 94° at the Hillsboro airport, a new record. The last freeze was just 6 days earlier. It looks like May 2006 was above average on highs with a lot of rain late in the month and Thunderstorms on the 21st.
    I would have liked to have been there (not too close!) to see that supercell Rob.

  20. PDX NWS AFD 3:00AM
    .LONG TERM…MODELS BEGIN BUILDING SOME WEAK RIDGING
    OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH SYSTEMS DEFLECTING TO THE NORTH. WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY STAY OVER THE WATERS WITH NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW RIDGING CONTINUING AND STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP TUE THROUGH THU DRY…THU BEING THE WARMEST DAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD TRACK RECORD OF LATE…AND WITH THIS SAID…SEEMS TO SHOW THE WARM DRY SPELL OF NEXT WEEK TO BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO PAC NW NEXT SAT…WITH RETURN TO COOLER WET WEATHER. &&
    Hmmm if this is true I’d imagine mid 80’s are more reasonable, and only briefly. Hopefully the next few model runs do not show this other front moving into the region.

  21. garron near wash. sq. area says:

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!
    I just celebrated my 38th on 5/8! Kinda blau weather for our birthdays, but, next week will make up for it! I went out and planted 38 tomato plants for my birthday, just for the heck of it! I will have my yard work cut out for me if the weather holds. Yeah, 2 years ago was a different spring to be sure! I would rather use the airconditioner than the heat this time of year myself. and i always love setting a new record or two…go for 95 by friday/saturday!!!!

  22. Were we also quite warm during the end of April? Like mid-upper 80’s? I remember 2-3 years ago end of April we were running our A/C for 3-4 days.

  23. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Does anyone realize we made it up to 93 degrees on May 15th just two years ago?

  24. TheTriforce says:

    47F after a high if 57F and overcast all day long.

  25. Thanks for the update Mark. Well regardless we’re heading for sunnier and warmer weather. I’d prefer the temps you forecast on your 7day 80-88 rather than 90+. Any chance we can throw in a weak vort max or southerly flow for t-storms? Yeah probably not.
    I was tracking storms earlier in Kansas and at one point the cell just north-northwest of Dodge City went nuts. This is an image when the cell was at its peak. The hook was amazing. The rotation within the super cell was so immense it didn’t just wrap the hook, it pulled it back into the other side of the storm creating a donut.
    Dodge City, Kansas. 6:18 CST Base Radar Reflectivity GRLevel2.

    The velocities with this thing were very strong as well. Quickly after the hook was enveloped back into the super cell it formed a very strange curl, similar to a meso low, then it the super cell rotated quickly causing the storm upstream from it to catch up to it and tear it apart. Amazing weather…..

  26. TV Weather Producer says:

    Thanks Mark ! Happy belated birthday my friend.

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