Warmer Weekend, But Chilly Pattern

SnapshotI just checked the winter snowfall total at Government Camp, near 4,000′ elevation on Mt. Hood. Looks like the after early next week (with more pass-elevation snow), we’ll have the snowiest winter up there since 1974-1975.  There were a string of years with 350-450" up there in the early-mid 1970s.  We sure won’t beat that since May is almost here!  But a heck of a winter at the lower-mid elevations in the Cascades.
A tough forecast the last 2 days for this weekend.  Luckily models seem to have formed a consensus on dry, but lots of high clouds tomorrow, then rain at some point Sunday afternoon.  Enjoy the warmer weather.  The Mark Magic Chart says a solidly sunny day tomorrow with the same atmospheric conditions would produce a high of 75-78.  That’s because there is a nice downslope easterly wind and 850mb temps rise to around +8 or so in the afternoon.  The WRF-GFS from the UofW keeps insisting on a high of 80 degrees tomorrow.  Wouldn’t that be nice if my forecast was that far off?

A cold trough returns later Monday through Thursday of next week, so enjoy the mild weather this weekend.  Mark Nelsen

78 Responses to Warmer Weekend, But Chilly Pattern

  1. A couple of inches of snow makes for some challanging putting. Good luck finding your ball in a snow drift.
    41.8 degrees and falling here in flatland.

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Had some more heavy rain earlier but maybe tomorrow will bring some t-storms. Unlikely but I’ve seen it happen before.

  3. kcteach says:

    My son’s golf match at Resort at the Mountain in Welches was snowed out. They played 9 and then they couldn’t continue. Doesn’t
    May start this week…..

  4. TheTriforce says:

    Whoops! (plays whoops noise) Forgot the temp report. I’ve been tired all day and been sleeping alot so I’ve been forgetful. It’s 52.9F with a relative humidity of 51% out. DP.36F. Hope that’s better.

  5. TheTriforce says:

    Sunny with some dark clouds wayyyyyy to the north. I am surprised nothing more is happening in portland. I wonder where those dark clouds are at then.

  6. Heavy Rain right now by Sunset High School in Beaverton. No hail though.

  7. Then there’s of course the phantom sign-out for no reason.

  8. Anonymous says:

    Now it is yes, but earlier it was delaying posts.

  9. Anonymous says:

    Typepad is working fine Rob.

  10. Anonymous says:

    Typepad test – 4:03pm!

  11. Once again the atmosphere has cooled off slightly and we are in recovery mode. Question is can the atmosphere recover in time before we lose peak heating to fire off more convection? Time will tell.

  12. TheTriforce says:

    light rain storm here. very exciting to see light rain. cmon over. Mom said she heard thunder at 2:00 pm and that was that.

  13. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Heavy hail storm now in Lake Oswego. Sitting in Trader Joes parking lot I-5 & Hwy 217.

  14. Another cell with quite impressive 30+mph gusts out this way towards Gresham, and an interesting cloud base circulating back to the south and west as opposed to general shower movement to the east-northeast.

  15. Strong cell with possible t-storm near King City, Durham, Tualatin, Lake Oswego. Radar indicats .25″ hail core with 30% severe hail. Lightning could occur at any time with this cell.

  16. TypePad is having some serious issues right now with delaying our posts 15-30 minutes later.

  17. I have mine on Lol
    Hi Derek. Well we could definitely see more action it really depends on when we can reach the convective temperature which is 46-50 (Depending on which model sounding you look at) because the last batch of showers/isolated t-storm cooled the atmosphere, so now we are in recovery mode. Sun breaks will be essential for low level heating to fire up more hail/isolated t-storms.
    GRLevel 2, 3 radar characteristics shows a more stable showery pattern for the time being. Perhaps in 20-30 minutes we will see showers intensify again.

  18. Tyler in SE Portland says:

    Drove through a nice hail shower on the way over to Portland then heard the thunder around 1:15. St first I thought it was just a plane but soon realized as it rumbled on that there was lightning. Sun is out now near Reed College.

  19. Camas~Mom says:

    We just had a serious downpour that started as a snow mix, then turned to hail, and then the skies just opened up and it poured! The hail was small, however, not of any size close to a pea. Just moderately heavy rain right now. The sun was just out, I swear! 🙂

  20. I am definitely liking the pattern of cells/sun breaks. Good sun breaks right now and it appears there are more to my west-southwest also.

  21. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Hey I got all of my wisdom teeth out this morning at 8:30 but am doing pretty good right now. Nice little batch of storms came though. Had 35mph winds or so with some heavy brief hail and then driving rain for a while. Looks like plenty of time for more action to build up again later, I will post as things get going. Perhaps its time to dust off the old AM radio for lightning.. 🙂 OH yeah, two claps of thunder as well.

  22. EA TTD says:

    Thanks Rob…great timing!

  23. Anonymous says:

    .25″ hail core just popped up looks like over southeast Troutdale. Lightning just struck again in that location.

  24. With sun breaks I expect more to come. Perhaps even a bit friskier as well.

  25. EA TTD says:

    Very windy here in Troutdale. Heard the thunder, raining moderately now with hail apparently on the way.
    Rob, order us up some lightnin’!

  26. Aleta- west gresham says:

    I thought that that thunder sounded awfully close!! Just dumping hail and rainhere now.

  27. Thunder now… No more than 1/2 mile from me.

  28. Pea sized hail and gusty winds here. Just barely off to my northeast there is some scud and cloud base moving due south and the shower itself is moving east-northeast. We have some wind shear it appears.

  29. Good day everyone.
    Seeing some vertical motion to the CU out there beginning to develop. GRLevel 2, 3 confirm shows slowly intensifying with hail cores of .25″ showing up from time to time.
    Looking at SPC parameters some instability looks to develop over the next 2-3 hours.
    [IR Loop Enhanced]
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    Looks like a small vort max is moving onshore near Newport. The speckled nature to the clouds looks somewhat favorable for afternoon hail/t-storms. As always we will need sun breaks.

  30. offroadjosh(kila montana) says:

    derek.. how bout spend a winter over here hahaha. we get plenty of snow.. and cold.. and wind.. idk how much total we got this year but it was im guessing over 100inches

  31. Nice pictures there! I wonder how would be the month of May be…

  32. Tyler says:

    Ya I usually do just haven’t yet. 🙂

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