Time to Head North?

SnapshotWayne Garcia shouted at me (via speakerphone) tonight…"hey mark!  My web page that gives me weather forecasts says it’s going to be 51 in Reykjavik and sunny Saturday, can you believe it?".  So after doing some digging I noticed how tough it is to get cold air this far south in April.  Day length is rapidly increasing in the Arctic this time of year, so temps warm quickly too.  In fact I see Fairbanks will be warmer than Portland Sunday as well.  They have a big warm ridge on the way up there!  Not so here in the Pacific Northwest.

Still no change in the remarkably accurate long range maps this week.  A cold front is hard to find on the satellite picture, but observations at the Coast, including Astoria, show quickly dropping dewpoints.  So the cooler/drier air is arriving tonight.

I don’t see any real organized precipitation on the maps tomorrow through Sunday EXCEPT for Saturday morning.  Each model is slightly different, but It seems as though they all try to give heavier and more sustained precipitation for the central Oregon Coast and Southern Willamette Valley.  That could give a "surprise" snowfall to some coastal locations, so I leaned on that bit more heavily during the 10pm show.  I still think we get mainly midday-afternoon showers in the lower elevations otherwise, which means very little chance for any snow below 1,000′.

The trough should kick out of here Tuesday (or so), but it’s going to be 5-7 days before reasonable temps return…April 2008 will go down as a chilly one!  Mark Nelsen

106 Responses to Time to Head North?

  1. Mat ne portland says:

    NAM still showing heavier precip than the GFS as well.
    What’s the word on the new info Bobby?

  2. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    Sorry for the double post but Matt’s comment took my noticed.
    quote “the low stalling then moving off the Oregon coast. quote TheTriforce asks: What do you by mean moving off the Oregon Coast? As in going out to sea and we get shafted?

  3. Mat ne portland says:

    Triforce, the low has been onshore. Its dropping south. Feelin’ chilly out there under clear skies. 40.3

  4. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    weather report and a comment. 🙂
    Dew point 32f! alert alert. Buzzzzzzzzz. 41.9F and a patch of clear skie coming with more clouds behind it.
    Snow as low as in Everett? It’s hard to believe it. I saw that cam and it looks like an image in Jan sometime! :O
    and the Low isn’t fully onshore yet either.

  5. Mat ne portland says:

    Maybe I’m wrong but the 00z is showing the low stalling then moving off the Oregon coast. Thoughts?

  6. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    After scanning over the traffic cams, it appears that a large swath of populated area just north of Downtown Seattle to Everett had sticking snow. Places like Everett (of course), Redmond, Woodinville, Duvall, and even Green Lake have varying amounts of snow on the ground. At 8 PM, Everett still had snow falling, and Boeing Field is reorting snow flurries. Now, if only we could get a band of moisture swing in overnight over the PDX area. Dewpoints are now below freezing and I think anyone in our area under precip tonight will see snowflakes.

  7. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Is it winter or spring? Are we close to may or is my calender off? haha. I just got a very heavy snow shower here in Ellensburg, wa. Temp down to 34.1.

  8. TV Weather Producer says:

    FAB 5 ALERT. FAB 5 Meeting at 9pm. New info just coming out……

  9. jacob BPA says:

    Current Temp 38 Dew 31
    Ridgefield Partly Cloud and a Cold Wind BRRRRRRRRRRRR

  10. Just a sign of things to come for tomorrow and Sunday 🙂
    [IR Loop Enhanced]
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    Certainly reveals the cold upper low about down to the NW tip of Washington now. Looks like a more organized are of showers has developed just up off the Washington Coast.

  11. Runrain says:

    Atmos Wrath: A long ways away, but check out the Seattle radar, noting that pretty large cell west of Vancouver, B.C. and headed for Vancouver Island!

  12. Tyler Mode in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Wow…just north of Seattle, what a bunch of snow! Here it is sunny right now with a good breeze blowing.

  13. JOSH "THE SNOWMAN" from Everett, WA says:

    Um, starting up again Mat :).

  14. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Heavy snow falling right now (6:49 PM) along I-5 south of Everett. Check out this traffic cam!!! Wow!!!
    http://www.kirotv.com/traffic/11330497/detail.html

  15. Mat ne portland says:

    Looks like you owe me a 12 pack Josh. no 3 inches.

  16. JOSH "THE SNOWMAN" from Everett, WA says:

    Snow just ended up here. Hopefully a “new” zone develops later :).
    About 1 1/2″ on the ground.

  17. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Triforce, yep gotta go to Kelso/Longview to shop. Nothing here at all. Bar, post office and a small grocery store. Snowing hard. Huge flakes.

  18. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    47.3 now and spots of blue skies. I wonder if Mr.Sun is going to come out.

  19. Mat ne portland says:

    Anyone know what happened to Professor Gregg from Troutdale? Haven’t seen him post for quite sometime. That goes for Derek in Utah as well.

  20. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    46F I guess it’s cause the clouds are getting ligher from the heavy rain shower I forgot to mention.

  21. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    45.9 dropped from 47 in 5 or so mins. Silver Lake doens’t have much of a town and I bet Kelso&Longview is their shopping place for Wendy. Right? I wonder if she goes to the mall there. I have been in it once.

  22. Mat ne portland says:

    You need to go to the Northern Plains?

  23. Professor Mback (TTD) says:

    To make snow men and women…..

  24. Gordon (Vancouver - near FVHS) says:

    Where did everyone go?

  25. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Snowing again!!!

  26. Jesse-Orchards says:

    What do you think about that afternoon snowfall along the North Sound, Mark?

  27. Mark Nelsen says:

    All snowflakes on our Tower Cam at 1800′ around 3:15pm

  28. Tyler in Longview says:

    Have had some more hail and graupel here with very strong winds too. We had several carts blow to the end of the parking lot and flip over the curb.

  29. Tyler in Longview says:

    Have had some more hail and graupel here with very strong winds too. We had several carts blow to the end of the parking lot and flip over the curb.

  30. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Between 800 and 850 ft. Sunbreaks now and everything is melted. Got another one coming in a bit though, we’ll see what this one does.

  31. Luvry says:

    Wendy, you’re about 900 feet right?

  32. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    All snow still

  33. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Never mind, not switching anymore. Is all snow!!!!!!!

  34. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Winds sustained at 23 mph for last 5 minutes, hails been coming down for about 10 minutes. Ground is white and hail is switching to snow.

  35. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Hmmmm, snow for Passover?
    Chag Sameach to those celebrating!

  36. Wendy,
    Keep posting your conditions. Yeah isn’t that just nuts? The really lucked out too because before the cell approached Fort Worth is was more super cellular in structure with a good sized hook echo indicated the likelihood of a tornado. Then as the storm pushed east it transformed into a line of storms/bow echo with only smaller hail into Dallas.
    Mark,
    Hmmmm I think just over the PNW region as we are heading into a more unstable air mass.
    John,
    I am still not yet on the snow band wagon. I guess I find it hard to believe in mid April that it is possible here.
    Jacob,
    Do you think the conditions up there have any chance of developing down here? I think it’s going to be difficult it’s just an entirely different setup with their convergence zone and uplift due to the enhanced convection. I’d like to see it happen though.

  37. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Was going to report that we have been having sunbreak then hailstorms all afternoon up here, but after watching the video that Rob posted, don’t know if its worth mentioning. That is just insane hail. I though we had big hail at times, but nothing compared to that. Temp goes down about 6 degrees each time, but recovers again as soon as the sun starts shining again. They are happening about 45 minutes or so apart.

  38. jacob BPA says:

    Fab 5 on Snow Con 2
    Meeting 9pm tonight
    Numerous Reports of snow and sticking throughout NW washington

  39. Mark Nelsen says:

    I can actually put the lightning over any area you want…requests?

  40. John - Aloha says:

    Just peaked to 50 here in Aloha

  41. Mark,
    When is the NW lightning tracker website going to be fixed?

    Instead of it usually showing just the Pacific Northwest it’s now showing the entire country.

  42. Mat,
    I wouldn’t completely rule out t-storms and maybe even some frisky ones at times. We’re into mid April with a strengthening sun, so with this cold of air overhead coupled with steep lapse rates, lifted index nearing zero, and some CAPE developing with sun breaks it could get active.
    Wow Phil, that’s incredible. If you had told me this was taken in the middle of January it would seem more realistic, you know?
    Found hail video from last night I believe that pummeled the Fort Worth area. Golf ball to nearly softball sized hail! and look at the damage to the cars.

    and one more

    – Dr. Rob

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