Time to Head North?

April 17, 2008

SnapshotWayne Garcia shouted at me (via speakerphone) tonight…"hey mark!  My web page that gives me weather forecasts says it’s going to be 51 in Reykjavik and sunny Saturday, can you believe it?".  So after doing some digging I noticed how tough it is to get cold air this far south in April.  Day length is rapidly increasing in the Arctic this time of year, so temps warm quickly too.  In fact I see Fairbanks will be warmer than Portland Sunday as well.  They have a big warm ridge on the way up there!  Not so here in the Pacific Northwest.

Still no change in the remarkably accurate long range maps this week.  A cold front is hard to find on the satellite picture, but observations at the Coast, including Astoria, show quickly dropping dewpoints.  So the cooler/drier air is arriving tonight.

I don’t see any real organized precipitation on the maps tomorrow through Sunday EXCEPT for Saturday morning.  Each model is slightly different, but It seems as though they all try to give heavier and more sustained precipitation for the central Oregon Coast and Southern Willamette Valley.  That could give a "surprise" snowfall to some coastal locations, so I leaned on that bit more heavily during the 10pm show.  I still think we get mainly midday-afternoon showers in the lower elevations otherwise, which means very little chance for any snow below 1,000′.

The trough should kick out of here Tuesday (or so), but it’s going to be 5-7 days before reasonable temps return…April 2008 will go down as a chilly one!  Mark Nelsen