April 15, 2008

SnapshotIt’s been a chilly April, and apparently it’s going to get chillier yet!  The maps right now for the next few days don’t really look any different than last night at this time.  Brief warming the next two days is followed by a historically cold airmass for this time of year (April 18-21st) this weekend.  I found the maps from April 23, 1961.  That was the morning that up to 3" fell in the West Hills and dustings even in the lower elevations.  The pattern was very similar to what’s coming this weekend.  A quick drop of cold air down through Western Canada dug out a trough along the West Coast.  The day after, the low was centered a bit more to the east of us.  It may have been a "deformation zone" as steady/heavy precip. sat over us before the trough moved off to the east.  The 850mb temps and upper level heights are forecast to be a bit LOWER this weekend compared to that event.  I’m increasingly convinced that several inches are likely in the hills by Saturday morning and MAYBE some to the lowest elevations too.  It’ll all be about precipitation intensity and timing.  If we don’t get good showers at the right time (overnight and early A.M.), then no snow.  But imagine if heavy/steady precip. were to arrive over the metro area at daybreak Saturday???  Mark Nelsen