Very Brief Warm Spell

Snapshot Snapshot2_2
I’m torn this evening; which is better, a beautiful sunny day tomorrow, or a brand new episode of Battlestar Galactica on at 10pm?  At least in this case I can have both.  Well, obviously I’ll be recording episode #1 & #2 of this final season since I have a little job to get done from 10-11pm.  I screwed up last week when I forgot to set the VCR to Daylight Time.  Amazing that I can get a weathercast together isn’t it?
  A nice warm 69 degrees at PDX today, the warmest so far this season and right around the 68 I forecast for today.  We did this without much of any easterly flow, some light easterly drift down the Gorge, but that was it.  Quite a change by morning though.  Mesoscale models say up to 5 miliibars easterly gradient in the 7-10am timeframe.  This gives us much better mixing of the warm/dry atmosphere above.  According to the April "Magic Chart", offshore flow+850mb temps 11-12 deg = a maximum as high as 80 tomorrow at PDX, with 75-78 most likely.  So I’ve bumped up the high temp forecast to 77, assuming that we’ll be between 74 and 80 (I consider a 3 degree margin of error acceptable).  Whew…lots of numbers.  For the regular person, it just means a perfect mid-June day is on tap for Saturday!
  Models are all in agreement in bringing a dying cold front inland Sunday.  Our model here holds off rain until the evening.  Then it’s back to cool, showery, and "troughy" weather the rest of next week.  The big picture looks like this:  the weekend will only be a brief intermission in our cool & wet spring so far.  Mark Nelsen

77 Responses to Very Brief Warm Spell

  1. Jeez…ive seen snow, ive seen rain, ive seen sun, ive seen hail….kinda not looking forward to snow on the ground….but then again…nice to see wacko weather so late in the year!!!

  2. John - Aloha says:

    Down to 39 now in Aloha. What happened to the 85 on Saturday?

  3. Jory - Sandy says:

    We had snow about an hour ago here in Sandy. 3/4 snow, 1/4 rain. Temp at the time was 39. So what’s the deal with that? I have not heard or seen the forecast, what is this talk about snow this weekend?

  4. Sandi….here in V-town we can’t plant til after Memorial Day LOL I did plant my 1st yr here in April & got by with it….but it was only that once.
    With the way things have been…….who knows??

  5. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Isn’t April 15th *supposed* to be our last possible freeze date here in this gardening zone? I’ve talked to plenty of older gardeners who won’t plant their fragile annuals until after Mother’s Day, though.
    I’m all for keeping the bug population down. We’re battling a plague of gnats that suddenly appeared indoors along with the sunshine.

  6. TheTriforce says:

    Okay Bid D then: where the H-E double hockey sticks am I going to ask? It’s not like I can ask there since they never do anything about problems. (I have tried multiple times for problems in the past) It’s a gold mine for cirular arguments. X:
    You guys have got to believe me. I do not lie or jest and never will.
    Now all that aside: It’s been in the 40s all day long how while it’s 53F now and partly cloudy.
    How much colder can it possibly get? I just don’t see how it can be cold this weekend since THIS IS APRIL! I am not even going to remotly buy it until Thurs or Friday.
    Then I will consider it if the trough/cold hasn’t been “shoved to sea” but, it’s fun to dream. 😀

  7. Roy (AKA) says:

    Ahhh haaaa….HA HAAAA….!
    Tonight we’re good to go… But as a coach, I just canceled my sons T-Ball practice for later this week…
    On account of SNOW!… (well, ok….. not in the lowlands but just like a couple weeks ago for sure!)… Umm, ask C/M… She just confirmed what’s coming… Insane stuff!… I’ll bet she has another 3-6″ up there by the end of the weekend…
    I told the parents I’ll call back if the practice is “ON”… (go figure)
    Can’t someone bring me a little global warming this week?…

  8. Kay Bradley, TTD says:

    SE corner of Troutdale here (near MHCC), and we just saw one insanely strong hail “attack.” It was short, but the force and amount was something I can’t remember ever seeing as intense before (and I’ve lived here all my life). I was surprised there was no thunder/lightning with it. Just 5 min. later and the sun is out (briefly I’m sure). My poor plants!

  9. TV Weather Producer says:

    might want to bust out the flower protectors for this weekend. Its going to get cold. The good news is with all of this rain and cold, should keep the bug population down this summer.

  10. Luvry says:

    C’mom, I have a feeling you may see some sticking snow friday night/saturday 🙂

  11. Camas~Mom says:

    Close – 2006 we had snow covered ground on the morning of April 15th (hard to day to forget, eh?). This is crazy. Of course, it’s not sticking. It’s only 38.9 though. Chilly….

  12. Luvry says:

    Insane CM!!!
    Is this the latest you’ve ever seen snow up there?

  13. Camas~Mom says:

    STOP THE PRESSES – ALL SNOW

  14. Camas~Mom says:

    Unbelieveable….snow mix right now, and periods of definitely mostly snow. Unreal!

  15. Luvry says:

    WOW!!! Look at the 12z Euro, this would be a bonified harcore arctic outbreak 3 months ago…Make sure you look at hour 120 on this.
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008041412!!/

  16. Luvry says:

    Steve, crazy isn’t it?!!!
    You are correct about saturday…but at this point if PDX doesn’t get any recorded snowfall than it’s all for not, lol. Wouldn’t that be nuts for PDX to not record any snowfall all year then get a trace on the 19th of APRIL!? Can’t believe the arctic is still pumping this down south.
    I knew it was in Lala but I had to send out that email the other day…had this feeling the models might be latching on to something…euro has been going after this trough hard for many days now. Guess we’ll see.

  17. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    WOW! The 12z GFS is way overdone, but neat to think about regardless. Look at the low for KVUO Sunday morning. If this were to verify we would see a rather “interesting” Saturday morning all around the metro area.
    http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KVUO.txt

  18. Tyler Mode in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Just started hailing here in Vancouver, nothing major though. Sure is a cool day though with a decent wind blowing. Temperature is now down to 44.

  19. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    My roses are confused. I might be as well, if next weekend comes to fruition. Going from 83 this weekend to 45 next weekend would be hard to imagine, yet the GFS has been dead locked on the idea for the past 2 days now. Every single run looks the same. Not only that, but the Euro is in excellent agreement for 7 days out. WOW! Perhaps more snow like we had in late March???
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_138.shtml
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008041300!!/
    SP

  20. Luvry says:

    Hmmmm, snow down WAY low this weekend…talks of some sort of a late season arctic front in the discussion. Could we see the latest snow in Portland recorded history…there is a CHANCE…thickness down below 520, 850 temps near -8…WOW…only time will tell…stay tuned.

  21. Big_D says:

    Triforce, I happen to know what you are talking about because I visit the Western US site from time to time.
    But a lot of people who visit this blog are not members of that forum. So you can’t just post questions/concerns that have nothing to do with this blog – or weather in general – and expect people to 1) know what you are talking about and 2) bother to reply.

  22. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    How can you not know what I am talking about? I made a thread about the worst and best forums in people’s lives cause I am curious to how exreme a forum can get and it turned into crap.
    It’s over at the Westernweather forum. (I am sure the Veterans at this site can help you since the members over there are spammy) I want the thread back on topic there.
    Now it’s 50F and overcast.

  23. Tyler Mode in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Wow…a 180 degree turn from yesterday. Things were decent this morning but quickly clouded over up in Longview. By the time I left around 6:20 there was some light rain falling. I was lucky enough to spot a bald eagle on my drive home from work near Woodland. I’m ready for more nice weather!

  24. three glorious daze
    sun fed joy renewal time
    dare to snow again

  25. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    It looks on radar like the rain is getting closer.

  26. Heat….are you talking about this blog or the other one you go to? On this blog….if you try to post too many times in a row it thinks you are spamming. But it goes away after a bit. If it is that other blog you go to I can’t help there. Cherie<—sorry not to be able to help Heat

  27. Big_D says:

    Triforce, I don’t think anybody knows what you’re talking about in your request for help?

  28. Mat ne portland says:

    P.S. I hope they gave you some good painkillers Rob. I know how painful the neck can be since mine hurts chronically. They gave me some oxycodone and it sure does take the pain away.

  29. Mat ne portland says:

    Sorry, I can’t help you triforce.

  30. Earth to J.R. …is it you who works in Carver??…get back to me…

  31. TheTriforce Silverton 360ft says:

    help guys?

  32. Camas~Mom says:

    OK, I was the only one on here last Friday talking about BSG and NOW you all remember! What did I do? I forgot to watch it! I think I have it tivo’d, but if not I may have to watch it on line (did that with an episode of Lost and it wasn’t too bad!). I can’t wait to see how this turns out, and I’m glad we’re back on the story line of actually getting back to Earth. Sometimes they got a bit off the beaten track for me last year.
    I am so sad to see our wonderful weather disappear. 😦 The only bad thing about the sun is the dust and fingerprints from little loved ones that you blissfully don’t see in the cloudy weather. Ha! But, I’d take the extra cleaning any day of wet and cold. BLECK!

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