A Wet Week Ahead

SnapshotI don’t know how many of you look at these maps, but sometimes they are quite useful.  This is the GFS 12z Ensemble Spaghetti Chart for hour 168…next Friday.  It shows the 558 dm 500mb height line for each of the ensemble members.  Basically the model is run many times (something like 20?) after the initial conditions are changed slightly or "perturbed".  We often get an idea of how confident models are of future weather patterns by seeing how well the different "versions" line up.  What I notice today is a heck of an agreement for westerly flow continuing through all of next week.  That’s unusual for 7 days out in time.  Usually the different ensemble members are really diverging after 4-5 days.  Notice how the lines are clustered very tightly in the Eastern Pacific and into California/Oregon.  So what does it mean?  It’s going to be wet and cool for Oregon’s Spring break.  You can find the spaghetti charts on my model page here.  As always, you can click on the picture here for a larger view too.

I’m posting early today because I’m procrastinating doing the weather graphics for a few minutes…a rare moment of inspiration.

Enjoy the bright and warm sunshine tomorrow.  It still looks like 60 degrees or so in the afternoon.  Cold front moving in Sunday brings the opening round of the next rainy period.  I’m working this weekend for Stephanie too, so if I get REALLY inspired, I might post again…Mark Nelsen

144 Responses to A Wet Week Ahead

  1. Professor Mback (TTD) says:

    Hmmmm, I am not an actual professor it should read. However, I am a former spelling and typing champion.

  2. Professor Mback (TTD) says:

    Well, this about sums it all up. I think we are all going to die soon based on this:
    http://www.kptv.com/weather/15708160/detail.html#
    Nice knowing you all!!!!
    Professor Mback
    Disclaimer: I am not an actually professor. In no way is this intended to poke fun at Dr. Rob and all he has done for this blog…

  3. I’m sorry to hear about your loss, Mat.

  4. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Report of snow coming down below the 1000 foot level in the NW Oregon Coast range.

  5. Hmmmm then we take a look at the same model 0z NAM but the windcast.

    Appears to show an OLM-EUG of -22 to -23
    OLM-PDX itself is -11 to -12

  6. Just returned to Wilsonville from Tigard. Heavy rain coming down.

  7. Friday, March 28th – 5:00 PM
    00z NAM

    OLM-EUG -18 to -20mb. Interesting.
    What I notice about this low is that it is a loner storm. No real surface lows ahead of it to create large scale low pressure which wouldn’t allow for much of a pressure gradient to develop. Well we will just have to see if future runs pick up on anything.
    – Dr. Rob

  8. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    WINDSTORM FRIDAY???
    This certainly caught my attention. I count 20mb’s from Eug to Oly. That would be good for almost 60mph, maybe a bit more if the NAM has anything to say about this. Great cross valley line up of the isobars as well. GFS has same path, yet weaker low. Only 15mb gradient from same to locations. 500mb trough looks to be in good position for something to spin up.
    See enclosed.

    and

    and
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_e_wssfc+//72/3

  9. Camas Momma,
    Don’t apologize for not posting weather information. The simple fact is for nearly every family a pet becomes a family member. Myself I am partial to Cats as well. I know how difficult it is….
    Hang in there Mat.
    – Dr. Rob
    (Seriously when I type “Dr.” I don’t feel worthy to do so) lol

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