A Wet Week Ahead

March 21, 2008

SnapshotI don’t know how many of you look at these maps, but sometimes they are quite useful.  This is the GFS 12z Ensemble Spaghetti Chart for hour 168…next Friday.  It shows the 558 dm 500mb height line for each of the ensemble members.  Basically the model is run many times (something like 20?) after the initial conditions are changed slightly or "perturbed".  We often get an idea of how confident models are of future weather patterns by seeing how well the different "versions" line up.  What I notice today is a heck of an agreement for westerly flow continuing through all of next week.  That’s unusual for 7 days out in time.  Usually the different ensemble members are really diverging after 4-5 days.  Notice how the lines are clustered very tightly in the Eastern Pacific and into California/Oregon.  So what does it mean?  It’s going to be wet and cool for Oregon’s Spring break.  You can find the spaghetti charts on my model page here.  As always, you can click on the picture here for a larger view too.

I’m posting early today because I’m procrastinating doing the weather graphics for a few minutes…a rare moment of inspiration.

Enjoy the bright and warm sunshine tomorrow.  It still looks like 60 degrees or so in the afternoon.  Cold front moving in Sunday brings the opening round of the next rainy period.  I’m working this weekend for Stephanie too, so if I get REALLY inspired, I might post again…Mark Nelsen