A Nice Weekend!

SnapshotThis images sums up the 7 Day forecast quite well.  It’s the 6-10 day forecast of 500mb anomalies.  Click on it to get a less blurry view.  You’ll see a ridge centered right over us and the rest of the West Coast.  This ridge builds behind the California storm this weekend.  So very little (or no) rain will fall this upcoming Monday-Friday workweek.

As for this weekend, tomorrow is looking real nice with strong offshore flow developing on the north side of the California Low.  It doesn’t really kick in until the afternoon, so we may have lingering clouds in the morning.  850mb. temps aren’t all that warm, so I don’t think it’ll be a 60 degree day.

The lingering moisture and a sort of deformation band moves north into Oregon tomorrow night and Sunday.  I changed the Sunday forecast to mostly dry based on 00z models keeping almost all the rain with this to our south and east.  The farther south and east you go this weekend, the better chance for rain.  This will be one of those rare times where Astoria and the North Coast will be the driest spot in the region.
It’ll be in the last week of February…so the combination of warm 850mb temps, some offshore flow, and increasing sun angle could easily push us well into the 60’s…a true taste of spring on the way!  Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to A Nice Weekend!

  1. Evening everyone.
    Surface gradients as of 8:00 PM
    OLM-EUG +1.3
    PDX-EUG +0.9
    PDX-DLS -0.5
    TTD-DLS -1.0
    The pressure pattern has now changed to northerly and offshore flow is developing in the Gorge.

  2. Mark starts the 4pm show today. Should be interesting viewing !

  3. Mat-ne portland says:

    Hey all. Glad to hear your ok Cherie. I don’t know about any online games (I’m not a gamer). I just got a Wii and its pretty sick. You can go online with that as well.

  4. Hello everyone.
    Larry,
    Hmmmmm it must have been spotty or more predominant over my area. It rained here last night lightly to moderately for several hours.
    It sure is a nice day today. 51 with an increasing east wind beginning to get gusty now.

  5. double posting blog
    electrons must be getting blue
    where are the humans

  6. well, i have to upgrade those couple of drops to a light shower over night; roads are a little damp….
    SIDEBAR: …there are still patches of snow in the shade in Brightwood, still plenty from there on up..

  7. well, i have to upgrade those couple of drops to a light shower over night; roads are a little damp….
    SIDEBAR: …there are still patches of snow in the shade in Brightwood, still plenty from there on up..

  8. ….uh Rob….i havent seen more than a drop or two of rain here….and interesting wind observations…i appear to get two kinds of east wind here, the type that mainly stays in the treetops, and they type that sweeps along the ground as well, and this weekend, and now, has been a big groundsweep east wind type…

  9. Hello everyone.
    Well it turned out to be a rather rainy evening/night didn’t it? I guess models underestimated how well the moisture was going to remain intact as it swung northward around the circulation of the big California low (Which technically is not even onshore yet as of 3:30 AM)
    Chucky,
    That is very cool that you were chasing those storms. I know Mike’s site very well as I’ve read most if not all of his encounters. That must have been incredible to be sandwiched in between all of that activity! Now correct me if I am wrong, but was this the same night a storm chaser was struck by lightning almost as soon as he rolled down his window? I heard about that he was chasing and reported the most intense lightning he had ever seen something like 6 cgs per second, then rolled down his window and shortly after lightning struck him in the arm/shoulder area sending him off the road to a ditch or what not. Then another chaser(s) came to his aid. He survived and I believe was even able to drive the rest of the way! It would have been an absolute dream for me to be there that night.
    Christiana,
    Thanks for the compliment. I figured since our weather was rather mundane, so why not focus on the big California storm. I enjoy creating those maps.
    Tyler,
    I’m sorry to hear about that. I will keep this on my mind and hope for the best.
    Hmmm as far as the wind goes it seems the strongest gusts were more like little bursts and they definitely seemed to be aimed more along/near the foothills than they were in the usual spots east of I-205 and the western Gorge.
    [WV Loop]
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
    What a change this is. A strong zonal flow has really geared up along 40 N. You can see one deep low after another lined up near/along there.
    [06z NCEP/NOAA Forecast Map]

    This shows everything nicely. 3 storms at or near hurricane strength all near/along 40 N. I do believe this is the first time I have seen the heart of the activity this far south during our Fall/Winter season, well relatively in comparison to how the north Pacific and Gulf of Alaska has been lambasted by persistent deep lows.
    – Rob

  10. ChuckyD81 says:

    Mark…
    I noticed the 12z and 18z NAM runs brought some decent winds over the terrain around here this evening. I didn’t see a lot of contribution from 850mb so I didn’t think too much about it.
    Do notice the 04z RUC has some decent 850 flow. Interesting…

  11. Tyler Mode in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Slight breeze alert…
    The wind was about 25-35 mph in Woodland though, just light here.

  12. Mark Nelsen says:

    Downslope Alert!
    Just sounds dramatic doesn’t it?
    In the last hour I’ve had a strong (for my location) easterly wind. That only happens when it’s coming over the Cascades instead of through the Gorge. A Gorge easterly wind (90% of east wind episodes) gives me a light northwest wind as it wraps around the 1500′ hill just east of Latourell Falls. Anyway, dry and windy here.

  13. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    Want to know something interesting about that YouTube clip you posted………I WAS CHASING THAT!!!
    Me and three other friends went chasing after college graduation in May ’05.
    We intercepted that linear stuff in Arnold, NE. We were actually on one of the “tail end charlie” storms on that line. In fact, the storm we were on was Tornado warned…and it did have a wall cloud with some scud streaming into it. However, it became outflow dominant. It turned out to be a really, really nice line as far as storm structure goes. Several visible supercells embedded in it! We “ran” from that line from Arnold, NE….allllll the way to Hastings, NE. I used to have pics uploaded to webshots.com….however I’ve long since deleted my account there.
    Check out this account…http://extremeinstability.com/05-5-17.htm
    Mike Hollingshead was a bit West and South of our location.
    We actually put ourselves in a bad spot b/c that tornado warned storm was heading straight for us…with cells popping to the North and South of the storm (both of which were showing strong rotation) we almost got ourselves in deep trouble. We actually drove through a gustnado in our attempt to get outta dodge. That’s what stupidity a first time chase induces!

  14. off topic……..anyone know of any multiplayer games I can join to keep me busy & chatting??
    Thanks!

  15. You are right Tyler……..I am so sorry to hear that. I will keep you & yours in my prayers

  16. Hi CM! I am in chat ….alone

  17. Tyler Mode in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Yes Cherie I did thanks. Actually, I just read his obit a few minutes ago.
    Unfortunately I may be in a somewhat similar situation here shortly. My aunt is not doing well at all. She seems happy-go-lucky about it all though…which I guess is good for her, then there is the rest of us I guess who are more afraid of life without her than she is of dying.

  18. Camas Mom says:

    It’s VERY windy here tonight! Started this afternoon and the last registered gust I had was 37.0 mph. Since I have it set up wirelessly it’s not a constant feed – the last really huge gust we had was much bigger I’m sure. Made my whole creek like it never has before. Have a good night all!

  19. Thanks Tyler……..
    did you get the info you needed from me?
    My son is E of SF so might be windy there???????

  20. Tyler Mode in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Cherie, pretty strong winds in California…and that storm is causing our strong winds here, easterly.
    Still mild out tonight, 53 degrees.

  21. Hi gang………just needed to be around my pals for a few.
    What is this latest storm all about??
    Chat anyone??

  22. Mback (TTD) says:

    I feel your pain Christiana. Sometimes I feel as if I have forgotten everything I learned in skool….

  23. Christiana in Beaverton (Baseline & 163rd) says:

    isn’t–I guess that I need the only grammar course.

  24. Christiana in Beaverton (Baseline & 163rd) says:

    Rob–Thanks for the pics. Every time I look at another one I’m glad that monster is hitting us with full force but feel bad for those that are going to get hammered.

  25. 3 more updated versions for your 1024×768 Desktop Background…


  26. Hmmmm convection is still firing in/near the center as the cold air continues to feed into the low.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12
    It is also moving ENE-NE for the time being.

  27. char says:

    The 7:30 a.m. N.W. satellite picture is the most beautiful photo of a split flow you’ll ever see!!

  28. If you like storms and lightning…. Best video I have found yet.

    This is in south-central Nebraska. go to 1:20 and watch it from there…… We NEVER ever see anything close to this…. That is soooo much lightning at times it is 1-3 strikes per second… mezmorizing to watch.

  29. Sds,
    Yep the east wind will pick up slowly all morning. It is just now beginning to develop in the Gorge.
    Okkk I know, I know, I said it was the LAST version, well I lied.
    I zoomed in even tighter, but with different imagery. This is a wider scale look at the entire storm, its circulation, and all of the cold air feeding it.

    This may be the cleanest version yet and losing the blue latitude/longitude dash lines are nice also.
    Enjoy,
    Rob

  30. sds/N. Clark Co. says:

    Rob
    You seem to be the only one on the blog–love that wind–should pick up later today?? They say the only thing more fickle than the wind , is a woman!!
    Hope the nice weather holds ’cause I have to go to Bend for a week of skiing!

  31. Good morning everyone.
    Hello Larry.
    Temp: 28.4
    Dewpoint: 28
    Wind: Calm
    Surface gradients as of 7:00 AM
    OLM-EUG +1.2
    PDX-EUG +1.5
    PDX-DLS -0.2
    TTD-DLS -0.9
    Ok…. One last version. I went through the loop slowly frame by frame looking for when it appears the low was at its peak maturity (968-971mb). It definitely seems to have been around 3:45 AM – 4:00 AM. It certainly looks the best yet during this time frame. So I have created one last version zoomed in a little bit tighter and cleaned it up a little bit more as well. It is 1024×768 pixel size and should hopefully fit your Desktop Background nicely.

    Enjoy,
    – Rob
    (Again if you want a particular size so it fits your desktop just e-mail me @ atmosphericwrath@hotmail.com)

  32. Rob, thanx for that storm pic….it’s a beauty!

  33. Hey all… heres a message from Cherie she wanted me to post…you can find it here……
    http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/pnwwj/

  34. Temp: 28.1
    Dewpoint: 28
    Wind: Calm
    Surface gradients as of 6:00 AM
    OLM-EUG +1.0
    PDX-EUG +1.0
    PDX-DLS +0.0
    TTD-DLS -0.1
    Here is a revised version of the previous desktop image. I enhanced it a bit, cleaned it up also so it has better resolution.

    Enjoy,
    – Rob

  35. Because I care about my fellow weather bloggers I have created a 1024×768 pixel desktop sized zoomed in image of the monster storm offshore. It looks pretty cool.

    Enjoy
    – Rob

  36. Brief update…
    Temp: 30.7
    Dewpoint: 29
    Wind: Calm
    Surface gradients as of 4:00 AM
    OLM-EUG -0.7
    PDX-EUG +0.1
    PDX-DLS +0.6
    TTD-DLS +0.4
    Valley: The light persistent southerly flow from the slowly exiting low pressure area has finally moved far enough away that its associated pressure gradient/pattern is no longer impacting the region.
    Onshore/Offshore: The light onshore flow we saw yesterday is now slowly transitioning to offshore. This will continue and slowly increase all day most noticeably late Saturday afternoon as the region overall sees the pressure pattern change.
    Here’s the latest look at the monster offshore as of 3:45 AM.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+1
    Simply awesome.
    – Rob

  37. Hmmmm lol
    Somehow that seems entirely possible. I can tell you right now if we had a major wind storm something to rival or just a little weaker than the Columbus Day storm she would likely be ignored during the duration Lol…
    Is that awful of me?

  38. Mback (TTD) says:

    here not her. Yikes, I really need to take the online spelling class.

  39. Mback (TTD) says:

    Rob, your girl called her looking for you. She sounded mad. Something about you love the wind more than her. Let me know what I should tell her. Oh, and bring on the nice weather.

  40. Thanks for the update Mark and the exceptional 7 day if I must say.
    I think depending on how soon the jet support begins to weaken as the low nears the California Coast will be the difference between 40-45mph east winds and 45-55+mph east winds. Should be very gusty which is great because it cleans out the air over the entire PDX/Vancouver metro area.
    – Rob

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