Snow Totals Saturday

February 1, 2008

If you get snow on Saturday, 1/2" or more, please put the pertinent info into the comments below:

ELEVATION (if you know it)

Keep discussing weather in the previous post please!

Snow Saturday?

February 1, 2008

SnapshotAlright, chew on this graphic for an hour or so while I finish my work for the 10pm show.  I have a headache from the last hour of debating snow possibilities in the lowlands (with myself).

Back now at 10:45pm…another very tough forecast.  It’s really too bad that our airmass isn’t about 5 degrees colder or so.  We’d be guaranteed a nice snowstorm this weekend.  When is the last time you’ve seen TWO low pressure centers move onto the Central Oregon coast within a 12 hour period, then head into Eastern Oregon?  Long time…

That is the setup tomorrow as it turns out the NAM was correct this time around (hard to believe).  Models have been arguing among themselves about where the low pressure center would go.  They now agree at 00z that the first moves to about Newport around 10am, then dissipates up over us.  Then a 2nd, and stronger low moves onshore around Florence at 10pm tomorrow night.  For comparison, the big snowstorm in January 1998 brought a low through Oregon on the exact same path.  I kept the MM5 maps from that storm.  The big difference is that 850mb temps of -16 moved down into north central Oregon at the same time!  That would account for a heck of an east wind and blizzard conditions in the Gorge with that storm don’t you think? 

So plenty of moisture tomorrow, and I don’t see any good reason the airmass over us changes much by 7am.  You add steady precipitation, and that should drag the snow level just about down to the Valley floor from Salem north.  I didn’t really mention this at 10pm, but this could be a great setup for several inches of snow in Forest Grove, Banks, and Carlton…from easterly wind pushing up against the Coast Range.  There IS quite a precipitation "gradient" over the next 36 hours, by that I mean very little precip from Longview north, but quite a bit south of Portland.  I did also notice that the 2nd low produces a nice little shield of heavy precip. Sunday night in the central Valley.  Another Salem surprise???  We’ll see.  Anyone that claims to know exactly how tomorrow will play out is nuts.

Sunday will be very quiet ahead of the next system later Monday.  Except for a brief shot of cooler air behind that system Tuesday night, the trend appears to be for milder westerly flow the middle and late part of next week.  That will bring temps back up to normal by the end of the first week of February.  It’s looking very unlikely that we’ll see a major arctic outbreak this year.  We haven’t had one of those after mid-February.  I know, I’m depressed about that like everyone else, but at least my banana plants will survive another season…Mark Nelsen