When Will It End?

SnapshotThe numbers might be a bit hard to read, so you can click on the image for a larger view.  The big picture shows that we now have the largest snowpack on record since sensors were installed in the Coast Range in 1979!  Discuss among yourself while I do my job here in the next 20 minutes…more after the weathercast…

Okay, back now…isn’t that snowpack incredible?  What’s interesting about the big snow year is that it’s only at the lower elevations.  Higher sites such as the Timberline only have slightly above average snowfall.  Also, I notice that at Saddle Mountain the precipitation for the season is actually slightly below normal.  That clearly shows that our storms have been unusually cold this winter.  What snow has fallen has fallen to a lower than normal elevation and we haven’t had any warm/rainy events since the first 2 days of December.

As for flood concerns, as I mentioned at 10pm, it’s not necessarily a problem to have a huge snowpack.  The problem is only if we get a sudden warm and rainy period.  I sure don’t see that in the next 7 days.  But it’s something to keep a close eye on.

Tonight’s storm has pushed the snow level up to around 2,000′.  It’ll stay there through tomorrow night, then drop down to around 1,000′ again by late Friday afternoon.  The whole time, strong westerly flow at 850mb. means a continuous dumping at the mountains.  Basically the snowstorm that began Sunday more or less continues through Friday afternoon!

Saturday:  This is interesting…a surface low comes across the Pacific pretty much straight into the Northwest.  Models runs have been all over the place on landfall location.  The 00z GFS is just slightly north of Astoria (maybe a bit of "dumbelling"?).  The 00z NAM moves the low farther south, into the Central Oregon Coast.  Still a couple days to decide.  The thought is that if the low moves inland to the Central Oregon Coast, our wind in the metro area would turn northeasterly with plenty of moisture and 850mb temps well below 0.  That is a good setup for snow with heavy precipitation falling.  If the low goes any further north (lets say north of Astoria), we just get south or southeast wind and a 1,000′ or higher snow level.  There appears to be good lifting and plenty of moisture with that system, so we’ll get quite a bit of snow in the hills and Gorge either way.  Wow, another 2′ of snow in the Cascades AFTER the 2′ we have coming tomorrow and Friday!  Some models indicate a change to more normal temps & weaker systems after the middle of next week…we’ll see…Mark Nelsen

389 Responses to When Will It End?

  1. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    I don’t know we have a trend where most of our lows love to go North of PDX so I see no reason why it would change now.

  2. llabrulf says:

    JR
    No ill will directed at Dufer. Being older than you probably are, parts of that name were part of my growing up and were related to “not beeing cool”. Dufer, Dufuss were replaced by Nerd, Turkey, and I’m not even hip enough to mention the others that replaced it. Here’s one for you. Shed Oregon? War Dufer!

  3. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    That is defenitly a wish cast all right, knowing how this winter has been. (sad face) This winter is almost as gloomy as 96-97; save for the 1″ or so of snow Yesterday morning: I forgot to measure it.
    I measure it Tues night: before the rest came. (Happy with glee about having SOME snow this year)
    38.1 here. and .04 in a hour of rain. Got windy up in the low 40s from the looks and sound of it.

  4. Marc ( Orchards, WA ) says:

    I’m gonna pull a wish cast and say we get 3-7 inches in the metro with the heaviest amounts Clark County northwards.

  5. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    Here is a little of my life story:. I used to live in Chico CA then moved to Paradise CA, Then to Quincy for 3 or so years starting sometime like 93 or something, then left late 96 and live here in Silverton OR. for the rest.
    The winters here in Silveron has been horrible. I went through a MAJOR climate shock. I am not kiddng.
    My favorite climate was in Quincy so far, but I wasn’t in to the weather then: so I don’t remember much of the weather back in those days. I just remember cold at night and some snow.

  6. llabrulf says:

    I;m not thinking there is enough cold up north to pull down even if it hits a little south. This would’ve been a bit better a week or so ago. We may have gotten in a forecasting rut for a whether pattern that was more pervasive a week or so ago and is no longer available to draw from?

  7. SD - N PDX says:

    The new 7-day is now showing two measly snowflakes for Saturday. LOL!

  8. J.R. (clackamas 220ft) says:

    what do u think marc?

  9. J.R. (clackamas 220ft) says:

    what about dufur oregon? cuz thats were my friend lives and thats wierd u say that city cuz wow that is a hella small city with maybe like what 20 people lol

  10. kcteach says:

    You know, as much as I have heard you guys talk about the intricacies of predicting weather in our area taking into account the Gorge,varied elevations,the Coast Range, etc, you would think that some really bright computer programmers would be able to develop more sophisticated model forecasting software specifically for this region.

  11. J.R. (clackamas 220ft) says:

    ahhhh so close to tell… right now my thoughts… i dont like how its right over us and THAT south of us if any barley… but there is a trend that it keeps going further south… i wanna say no snow to valley floor maybe 1500ft or higher…
    but if that low just goes A LITTLE lower i can see 1-3 inches for pdx to the valley… but tomorrow will be the night to call it…

  12. llabrulf says:

    I don’t think you can beat DUFER OREGON

  13. Boydo3 says:

    Don’t forget Drain, down toward Roseburg. Or Fossil.

  14. SnowFlake (Tigard/Bull Mtn) says:

    City name… it’s too good NOT to share
    Taumatawhakatangihangakoauauotamateapok-
    aiwhenuakitanatahu, New Zealand
    Good luck with that………………

  15. Marc ( Orchards, WA ) says:

    What do you think about it now JR?? Give us your prediction, and we will see if it pans out. If you predict snow, how much. Just throw out something that we can look back on to see if you were correct.

  16. kcteach says:

    You have to admit that this is the highest drama with the placement of a low that we’ve had all winter. By now it usually races to Vancouver.
    By the way, aren’t “Weed” and “College” normally the same direction?

  17. J.R. (clackamas 220ft) says:

    oh yea ur right i looked at it wrong

  18. Paul(orPbo9) says:

    wow TV-
    You have a good memory.
    Maybe the low will go south???? Please?

  19. llabrulf says:

    I agree. Met imposter(s) throw us your weather smack and your opinions not so related but have the balls to sign your name. Jack Nicholson, Britney Spears or whatever is fine at the end of your point and I think we all have a open mind to put that “name” with what you are saying. Sign the name you are trying to impersonate and we will all laugh or get your “dig” but to carry it through to the degree you do is annoying. Some of your stuff is good but you take it too far when you hide behind a name that might be a person in this forumn or might be closely associated with it. Your turn to reply in either of the methods mentioned………

  20. Anonymous says:

    From Mark and KPTV:
    “We are watching a storm for Saturday that promises to bring a lot of snow to much of the region. At this point it appears that the snow level will stay at or above 1,000′.”
    Looks to be playing it safe and keeping the door half open, half closed. Tomorrow night will be where he either opens it or slams it shut.

  21. Marc ( Orchards, WA ) says:

    JR what are you looking at? The GFS has the low south of Portland

  22. French Camp, California
    I was born there (at San Joaquin County General Hospital).
    Near Weed, Ca is a small town named College. There actually a road sign with Weed in one direction and College in the other 🙂
    I gotta find a picture of this sign.
    37.7 F

  23. J.R. (clackamas 220ft) says:

    gfs has the low way way to north so no snow and the nam has the low right over us…. hmmm which one is gonna be right…

  24. What about Boring, Oregon or my personal favorite Halfway, Oregon.

  25. SnowFlake (Tigard/Bull Mtn) says:

    Okay Tyler… you’ve opened up a can of worms for me… 😀 I found the following, for the amusement of this fine blog community (and to pass the time while we’re waiting for the next storm system):
    Truth or consequences, New Mexico
    Slaughters, Kentucky
    Nothing, Arizona
    Hopeulikit, Georgia
    And, my personal favorite: Bummerville, California
    There are more names at the link below, some of which beg the question, “What the hell!?” (haven’t found a city with that name yet Tyler)Fun reading, in between looking at weather maps/data, etc.
    http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/391606/weirdest_us_city_names.html

  26. Paul,
    I didn’t know you owned Xera Plants Inc. I’ve talked with you on the phone before back when I produced a local gardening show on the weekends.

  27. J.R. (clackamas 220ft) says:


    does anyone have the link for the loop to this?

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