More Snow

SnapshotAnother very fun weather day, but frustrating for forecasters (as snow situations always are).  Considering that I put the forecast for low elevation snow at NONE last night, it was a bust for those of you down the Valley.  Models clearly showed the comma-type feature of heavy showers that gave us the snow.  But it looked like it would travel mainly into the S. Valley.  That’s why I pretty much ignored it.  The only reason we didn’t get an inch or two of snow here in Portland is that we were at the far northern edge of it.

Moving on…models show the last little batch of showers coming in from the northwest around daybreak tomorrow.  I see no reason why healthy showers wouldn’t push the snow level back down to the surface again.  That’s how I get the Trace-1" additional snowfall.  I also notice the southerly gradient up the Valley has weakened a bit too and should stay that way overnight.

The next system is approaching very quickly from the west.  850mb temps are a bit higher with this system since it’s coming in more from the west than the northwest.  Same thing for Thursday as well.  Then a colder atmosphere comes back over us Friday through Sunday.  Lots of possibilites over the weekend depending on which model you look at.  More fun coming up…Mark Nelsen

270 Responses to More Snow

  1. Rick says:

    Lurvy UKMET is different than the Euro. The 0Z UKMET has ran and shows the low somewhere around Licoln City. Sorry I don’t have the link, that model is not mentioned too much around here.

  2. Boydo3 says:

    The free air freezing level at 2054′. With low levels staying cold will the frontal passage result in continued snow near the valley floor? Guess we wake up in the morning and see.

  3. Luvrydog (from home in Beaverton) says:

    EA, euro is still the 12z…waiting on the 00z to see if it still holds ground or trends nward, if it trends nward, we’re pretty much done for.

  4. Marc ( Orchards, WA ) says:

    Who’s there?

  5. Sandman - Aloha says:

    Mark’s 18z looks interesting for Saturday night. I like the NWS forcast too. 🙂
    I am also looking at the scarry H the sets up off of Mexico later in the run. I makes sense that it is time for a pineapple express. Hopefully it won’t be too intense. The nice thing about that is I have noticed a higher tendancy for an Arctic outbreak after a midwinter pineapple express. I think it just gets the jet whipping around.
    Is there any data out there to support my hypothisis?

  6. Anonymous says:

    We have plenty of snow on the ground!

  7. EA_TTD says:

    UK model puts low center over Salem for the weekend. Everyone hoist a Guinness or a Newcastle and put on a Beckham jersey!!! Go Brit’s!

  8. Boydo3 says:

    Yeah, who knows. But if you go up anywhere in the valley to 500′ there is still a covering of snow. Talked to my wife in Albany at 450′ and she said she still had snow on the ground there. So maybe that is helping to keep temps down. In which case after this front goes thru and freezing levels go back down………..

  9. Winds should continue to increase until frontal passage later..
    Don’t be surprised to see gusts 30-40mph+
    Well that’s it for me… hopefully be much better tomorrow. Thanks again for kind words and well wishes. Have a nice night everyone and take it easy.

  10. Were we supposed to be getting winds like this tonight???

  11. I dont think its the snow cover, that has been long gone with our rain today. Temp STILL dropping 35.6. Light rain now, I thought maybe it was just my temp gauge but I keep checking the other obs around my area and they are dropping as well.

  12. Anonymous says:

    Peak Gust: 39.4
    Every gust now is 30+

  13. tomr says:

    Mid-Hood River Valley, here. Elevation 1360 ft. 17″ snow on the ground right now. But the neat thing is that we have had 96″ snowfall at our place this season! Keeping the snow shovel busy… but we love it! Can ski right out the door!

  14. Boydo3 says:

    BTW or current temp is 37 deg.

  15. Boydo3 says:

    Zach, I think it must be that the surface has so much snow that the temp doesn’t warm much. I left my house in N Albany this morning with snow in the air and 3 inches on the ground. Drove to the coast. Lots of snow on the ground much of the way to Newport. Drove up the Alsea twenty-seven miles to our place on the river. Snow was covering fields from Tidewater (at sea level) all the way here where we have a covering of 3 to 4 in. at 300′! I’ve talked to people all over the central to south valley and to Cottage Grove and nearly everyone had some snow on the ground. So maybe that south wind can’t warm things up very fast after all.

  16. Surface gradients as of 9:00 PM
    OLM-EUG -9.6
    PDX-EUG No reading? Probably -4.7 at least
    Cape Meares G 71

  17. Really beginning to wonder down here, temp is still dropping, currently 36.1 at 225 ft. I find it very odd that we have a strong south wind, 25mph, and the temp continues on its way down.

  18. Marc ( Orchards, WA ) says:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=pqr&smap=1&textField1=45.674096&textField2=-122.47146
    I just can’t stop looking at Saturday night. Sigh, I just want to to come true so badly.

  19. stevied (North Portland)... change to snow! says:

    not that encouraging from the 00z GFS. Still 2.5 days out, so let’s see what the 12z runs and 00z runs bring tomorrow.

  20. Luvrydog (from home in Beaverton) says:

    Hey Rob, glad to have you back bud…definetely a watch on saturday’s system…either Portland or Seattle is gonna get a snowstorm…00z shoves the low a BIT farther north on the GFS, NAM brings it just south of Portland. Based on the past two months of model runs, I’d have to say this is not a good sign for Portland. HOWEVER, This is a wobble in the GFS, was further north earlier, came south 18z then tended back north. Nam is sticking with south of Portland. The NAM has to be correct one of these times correct?

  21. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The models always trend the low south until…………………………..
    24 hours out then it tracks it to Forks or Hoaq and we get squat.

  22. Mat-ne portland says:

    Hopefully tomorrows models will bring it back south with the overall trend.

  23. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Well, it’s just another run but 00z has the L going into vancouver Wshington. North of pdx, still has 3 days of models runs so hope it takes a dive south.

  24. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Ya 0z trends just a little bit further north. Moves in at the border then heads over Kelso/Longview etc.

  25. Hey all… Back for now (Hopefully for awhile too)
    Actually both OLM/PDX-EUG southerly surface gradients should be increasing out ahead of a strong storm system. Fairly strong cold front with a 983-987mb low behind it moving SE towards the Oregon Coast.
    Surface gradients as of 8:00 PM
    OLM-EUG No reading, but probably near -8.5
    PDX-EUG -3.8 increased
    I have had a peak gust of 37.0mph already.
    I think south winds gusts 30-40 possibly higher are reasonable to occur in the valley/PDX metro tonight.

  26. Mat-ne portland says:

    By the looks of 00z so far, Seattle better watch out.

  27. How cold were we supposed to get tonight? temp is down to 36.6 and still falling. Still looks like all rain though.

  28. Matt aka PrivatePilotWA, Castle Rock WA says:

    My aunt just sent me these photos from Montana. WOW, that is some snow!



  29. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    Never Mind Andrew. I am going back to lay down since I am in my stupid mode. You don’t want this infection trust me. It makes you feel very stupid. I ahouldn’t have even came here the way I typed.

  30. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    Hey Andrew can I have your email address so I can talk about Silverton weather when my eyes get better?

  31. Andrew Johnson (Silverton,Or/Bartlesville,Ok) says:

    I think I remember Ernest from last winter? Maybe I’m wrong, but I think I do…

  32. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Funny we make fun of KATU for their 700′ snow level for Saturday…KING 5 mentions the same thing around Seattle…http://www.king5.com/weather/

  33. Mat-ne portland says:

    Anyone know where Ernest went?

  34. Andrew Johnson (Silverton,Or/Bartlesville,Ok) says:

    My dad lives on the valley floor between silverton and mt. angel and he got 2 inches last night

  35. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    okay. I think it was more like an inch now that I remember but THAT IS ALL I GOT.

  36. Marc ( Orchards, WA ) says:

    Now heat, I wouldn’t call them stupid. Thats a little harsh. They probably just aren’t professionals in the field of meteorology.

  37. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Ya, I laugh at the radio weather forecasts. Usually they just read from the NWS…but I have heard some absurd things on there as well. Its almost like a newspaper, the information is usually old and not updated when conditions change.

  38. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    That is how much snow we had Tyler. Just a measly 1/2 inch. I am not joking.

  39. kcteach says:

    Thanks for the help guys. That’s why I like this blog so I can pick your brains…

  40. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    Darn. Mom said that she heard on the radio that wind gusts up to 45 mph were expected here inland tonight but the radio didn’t give much info. I have notice that weather on the radio is unreliable around here. The people on there are stupid.

  41. DanInOC says:

    ……I mean trending toward flat

  42. DanInOC says:

    PDX-EUG -2.7 trending down

  43. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Hmmm I don’t know heat…I saw some video from areas of Salem with close to an inch or two, maybe this was in the hills? The max I have had on the ground here is 1/2″.

  44. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    It’s been windy here. I had winds that looked like it it was trying to get to 40mp or higher. It got a bit loud even with the window closed plus this house is insulated very well. What is the PDX-EGU gradiant?

  45. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens elevation 360 ft says:

    The only place not clobbered yet is Salem and Silverton area. FYI.

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