What a Day!

SnapshotConsidering it was going to be a quiet post-frontal shower day…I sure spent a lot of time on TV.  We were live from 12:45pm to 5:05 pm, then of course the 90 minutes from 10-11:30 pm.  I think all my deep thoughts and creative energies have been sucked out right now, so a very brief post.
The strongest tornado in the immediate metro area since 1972 hit N. Vancouver this afternoon.  The NWS team sure did a quick job with the post-storm survey.  They say EF1 for a rating.  That means peak gusts maybe up to or a bit over 100 mph.  Not unlike the December Coastal wind event on the North Coast.  Damage is similar too.  Lots of trees blown down, broken off, and roofs ripped up.
Much calmer weather coming up over the next 7-9 days.  Models can’t quite agree on what to do late next week.  But at least until Friday the 18th, they all agree on dry, but chilly weather.  The 00z GFS still indicates arctic air surging south over the MLK weekend.  But the 12z ECMWF dumped the cold air out over the ocean instead.  We’ll have many days to talk about it, so I’ll take a closer look tomorrow…Mark Nelsen

170 Responses to What a Day!

  1. timothy says:

    amen amanda ..lets keep it weather..

  2. TV Weather Producer says:

    K2 did away with the ten day trend. A seven day is a little easier on the eyes and doesn’t require that extra few minutes of doing the climatology. As someone who used to update the 10day (when I worked at K2) I can say I will miss it. The 10 day was kind of my baby. I took pride updating it each day. Just a little known fact. Each day (Mon-Sun) has its own 7 day frame. That way, every single 7 day is only updated once a week and the mets don’t have to create a whole new seven day each and every day. Ok back to current weather news, I went to Vancouver today to tour the area with Steve Pierce. Got some interesting weather data and I will be passing that along to NWS and Mark. The amount and location of the storm damage was amazing. I’ve never seen it so localized. Steve’s map and fly along is dead on. WOW

  3. junior meteor says:

    mark, would you please set down some house rules for this website regarding non-weather related comments. if i wanted to read sport’s blogs, i’d tune into espn or oregonlive.com. let’s stay on weather related, scientific information that’s educational and enlightening. i’m far more interested in the weather maps, pressure gradients and art of forecasting….we need to stay the same page weather wise. thanks. i know it’s not fun to referee weather prognosticators, but in this case, the postings are getting too “chat-room” and off subject.
    thanks amanda

  4. pedro-tigard says:

    Day 10 in the 0z shows a nice snowstorm for the PNW.

  5. Boydo3 says:

    Here’s an interesting one for next Tues. Winter has just begun my friends! As Ozomatli would say “Embrace the Chaos”.

  6. EA TTD says:

    Fab 5 meeting ought be intersting. The 1040 high does some weird stuff around 1/23. Retrogrades NW to my eyes. Weird.

  7. Jethro (in Molalla) says:

    PINEAP… oops, I mean *RETROGRADE* *RETROGRADE* 🙂

  8. timothy says:

    WOW now its looking good ! i would love to see this hold up ..all models that im seeing all looking very close to the same trend .moisture coming down from alska /canada and for sure cold enough to snow with them or at least turning over to snow..and holds this trend for a while off and on moisture with northerly flow…

  9. pedro-tigard says:

    Actually all of the cold air goes more east on the 0z. Not very good.

  10. pedro-tigard says:

    Then it looks great at day 10.

  11. timothy says:

    00z doesnt look that good so far at day 18

  12. Rob aka Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    00z GFS (NCEP) is running.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_l.shtml

  13. Rob aka Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    00z GFS (NCEP) is running.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_l.shtml

  14. kirk says:

    Did katu get rid of the 10 day trend ? They only have a 7 day forecast now. Dont blame them the 10 day was never accurate anyway.

  15. kirk says:

    Did katu get rid of the 10 day trend ? They only have a 7 day forecast now. Dont blame them the 10 day was never accurate anyway.

  16. Andrew Johnson (Silverton,Or/Bartlesville,Ok) says:

    Pretty quiet in here tonight. Everyone is probably waiting with baited breath for the new gfs!

  17. Qwerty--Seattle says:

    The colored dots are different types of damage. Tree damage, roof damage, etc.

  18. Snouwhound says:

    Steve –
    That is a good video. Thanks for sharing.
    I didn’t understand the significance of the colored dots though.
    Perhaps different reported damage severity?
    GO PACKERS.

  19. jacob BPA says:

    Global Warming We now have proof in Irag LOL

  20. Camas Mom says:

    Cool article Andrew!

  21. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Interesting article on the Snow in Iraq today. First time in 100 years.
    BAGHDAD (AP) – After weathering nearly five years of war, Baghdad residents thought they’d pretty much seen it all. But Friday morning, as muezzins were calling the faithful to prayer, the people here awoke to something certifiably new. For the first time in memory, snow fell across Baghdad.
    Although the white flakes quickly dissolved into gray puddles, they brought an emotion rarely expressed in this desert capital snarled by army checkpoints, divided by concrete walls and ravaged by sectarian killings—delight.
    “For the first time in my life I saw a snow-rain like this falling in Baghdad,” said Mohammed Abdul-Hussein, a 63-year-old retiree from the New Baghdad area.
    “When I was young, I heard from my father that such rain had fallen in the early ’40s on the outskirts of northern Baghdad,” Abdul-Hussein said, referring to snow as a type of rain. “But snow falling in Baghdad in such a magnificent scene was beyond my imagination.”
    Morning temperatures uncharacteristically hovered around freezing, and the Baghdad airport was closed because of poor visibility. Snow is common in the mountainous Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, but residents of the capital and surrounding areas could remember just hail.
    “I asked my mother, who is 80, whether she’d ever seen snow in Iraq before, and her answer was no,” said Fawzi Karim, a 40-year-old father of five who runs a small restaurant in Hawr Rajab, a village six miles southeast of Baghdad.
    “This is so unusual, and I don’t know whether or not it’s a lesson from God,” Karim said.
    Some said they’d seen snow only in movies.
    Talib Haider, a 19-year-old college student, said “a friend of mine called me at 8 a.m. to wake me up and tell me that the sky is raining snow.”
    “I rushed quickly to the balcony to see a very beautiful scene,” he said. “I tried to film it with my cell phone camera. This scene has really brought me joy. I called my other friends and the morning turned to be a very happy one in my life.”
    An Iraqi who works for The Associated Press said he woke his wife and children shortly after 7 a.m. to “have a look at this strange thing.” He then called his brother and sister and found them awake, also watching the “cotton-like snow drops covering the trees.”
    For a couple of hours anyway, a city where mortar shells routinely zoom across to the Green Zone became united as one big White Zone. As of late afternoon, there were no reports of violence. The snow showed no favoritism as it fell faintly on neighborhoods Shiite and Sunni alike, and (with apologies to James Joyce) upon all the living and the dead.

  22. Camas Mom says:

    With the temps Mark has on the 7 day there won’t be any snow that stays around. So the aforementioned cold must be for Lalaland?

  23. Camas Mom says:

    With the temps Mark has on the 7 day there won’t be any snow that stays around. So the aforementioned cold must be for Lalaland?

  24. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    P.S. That KATU video is for viewing only. Please do not repost.
    Enjoy!
    Steve

  25. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    P.S. That KATU video is for viewing only. Please do not repost.
    Enjoy!
    Steve

  26. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    KATU Ch. 2 did a neat thing with the tornado map Wolf and I made. This is a 7 meg quicktime animation. Click on it and should play automatiaclly. Courtesy: Kris at KATU-TV.
    Click: http://www.gurrad.com/kris/TornadoPathMapSmall.mov
    SP

  27. stevied (North Portland - formerly Steve D) says:

    New 7-day from Mark…
    Added the snowflake back in Monday evening.

  28. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Wendy…no cold air will quickly move into the area. The 18z hints that it might cool down enough for snow before the precip comes to an end…who knows though. An inversion will develop east of the Cascades with the low levels stuck in the 20s and areas above 3,000′ in the 40s. Redmond, OR will be right on the edge like it normally is, teetering between fog and cold, and sunny and 40s.

  29. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Clarke County, WA making A&B show on TWC…yes Clark with an e…they spelled it wrong!

  30. wendy-silverlake,wa - 800ish ft. says:

    How is there suppose to be snow Monday night/Tuesday morning if the snow level is 1500-2000 ft. Is there an inversion going on?

  31. pbo9 says:

    Haven’t had a chance to look- how long does the high pressure stay east of the cascades? Does it linger or move east quickly?

  32. pbo9 says:

    Haven’t had a chance to look- how long does the high pressure stay east of the cascades? Does it linger or move east quickly?

  33. brian in bellingham says:

    I also have heard that the 18Z is the least accurate. Let’s hope so. I remember on Jan 1 the 18Z showed a massive arctic blast, which didn’t turn out. DT at WXRisk said “As I stated many times I do not like the 18z op GFS as statisticallu the data has proven conclusively (but for some unexplained reason) that the 18z op GFS is the least accurate of all for all the operational GFS runs.”

  34. brian in bellingham says:

    I also have heard that the 18Z is the least accurate. Let’s hope so. I remember on Jan 1 the 18Z showed a massive arctic blast, which didn’t turn out. DT at WXRisk said “As I stated many times I do not like the 18z op GFS as statisticallu the data has proven conclusively (but for some unexplained reason) that the 18z op GFS is the least accurate of all for all the operational GFS runs.”

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