Flurry Storm ’07

SnapshotI figure the title was an appropriate description for today’s excitement.  At least it brought my weather mojo back.  Technically we had about what I expected precipwise.  I see Scappoose had .05" melted snow, VUO & HIO both had .01".  Other stations had a trace.  If it would have been rain, we would have just seen some sprinkles and the forecast would have been pretty much right on.  BUT when it falls as several hours of flurries, it’s a different story.  I expected a brief flurry at best.  Well, at least it looked nice.
It appears that the atmosphere has slightly warmed over us this evening.  Our KPTV tower temp is right around 32 degrees now at 1,900′.  It was down around 30 late this afternoon.  So even though there won’t be much if any warming overnight (no mild onshore flow), our temperatures shouldn’t drop…assuming we don’t get clearing.  Models and satellite pictures look pretty socked in upstream over Western Washington, so I’m assuming we’ll stay cloudy overnight.
Moving on…strong high pressure briefly settles in east of the Cascades tomorrow evening and Tuesday A.M.  I notice the MM5 shows 5-7 mb. PDX-DLS by Tuesday A.M.  It is killed pretty quickly later Tuesday by the next system topping the offshore ridge.  That weak system brings us light precip. Tuesday night.
I notice the period from Wednesday-Sunday is quite cool…850 mb temps stay low with several wet systems…great for snow in the Cascades…Mark Nelsen

607 Responses to Flurry Storm ’07

  1. Antipex (Cupertino, CA) says:

    By the way…my apologies for not backing up what I said. When I make a statement like that I should explain why. So here’s my reasoning:
    Looking at the models I see some pretty cold air up in Canada…but nothing terribly frigid that makes me go “Wow!” during winter. I see a few lows swinging down out of the Gulf of Alaska into Oregon…but with Eastern Oregon/Washington being relatively mild (i.e. not really all that cold) and the fact that the lows are coming in off the ocean, the conditions look like they are *barely* ripe for maybe some mix at the higher parts of the PDX area. Maybe down to 1500 ft or so. To get snow down to sea level and for it to last in the Portland area, there needs to be either of the following:
    1. Really really really cold air in a low swinging around the ocean
    2. A low approaching from the west while bitterly cold air is entrenched in the East
    Right now I don’t see either of those scenarios happening anytime soon. Besides…even some of the “cooler” air coming in isn’t until after 7 days…which is pretty much too far out to be trusted (and the really cold air, again after 7 days though, right now looks like it wants to mainly head East).
    I will continue to monitor the maps and models to see what’s in store – keep in mind that this *does* indeed interest me because I will be in the PDX area from the 21st through the 2nd. And you all know that I’d love to see a good snowstorm! But right now…nothing looks all too good for a snowstorm in the next week or so.

  2. Antipex (Cupertino, CA) says:

    I said there’d be no windstorm for the _valley_… When you all were talking about 75mph gusts 🙂

  3. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Antipex, How can you say that especially since you said there would be no windstorm and there was? Maybe you should stick to california weather and not ours

  4. Antipex (Cupertino, CA) says:

    I don’t see any arctic blast heading into Oregon anytime soon…

  5. Mback (Gresham) says:

    Cherie in Vernonia, will you please email me at mback@netzero.com. Thanx.

  6. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    TypePad is having some technical difficulties. It is either not posting, or it is delaying them from appearing 5-10 minutes later.

  7. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Well my thoughts are the cold air supply really starts in central-eastern Washington, then filters into the eastern Gorge, The Dalles, etc…. Eventually pushing westward.

  8. Mback (Gresham) says:

    I would consider DP’s in the 20’s to be low. Not extreme, but low. Of course that wouldn’t bring subfreezing temps to TTD when DLS wasn’t subfreezing…

  9. timmy - scappoose says:

    okay so it got below 30 my a little, notice how i said ” like 30″ the highs those days were 37f and 32f, the average temp was 31f. that isnt cold enough to bring subfreezing temps to Troutdale. plus the dewpoints werent/arent low for over there either.

  10. DEL X V says:

    Note to Jack Bohls: congratulations on your retirement…..been there and done that and it’s satifying….keep up your weather interests and keep posting on this blog…we need your expert opinion.

  11. Mback (Gresham) says:

    Timmy, you may want to check the records on that.
    The Dalles temps were below freezing for almost 2 days due to the E winds. Maybe not Arctic, but for early December not bad either.

  12. timmy - scappoose says:

    Rob, the dalles never got below like 30 the last couple days with the east wind, even though the basin was cooler than that, its not enough, and the cold air really isnt there.

  13. timmy - scappoose says:

    Rob, the dalles never got below like 30 the last couple days with the east wind, even though the basin was cooler than that, its not enough, and the cold air really isnt there.

  14. K(p)=k(c)(RT)^n says:

    No I don’t enjoy it either, its terrible to be outside right now.

  15. K(p)=k(c)(RT)^n says:

    22F.. lol

  16. Mback (Gresham) says:

    35.7 DP 31.9

  17. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Some light rain up in Longview today, temp was 36 when I left there. 39 by the time I got to Kalama, where it had rained but was dry then. Dry here at home, temp is 39.6.

  18. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    In the Columbia Basin it is… Certainly isn’t in the eastern Gorge and the areas you mentioned. It’s critical the Columbia Basin (Central-eastern Washington/Northeast Oregon) remain cool 35F or lower during the day.

  19. timmy - scappoose says:

    Rob, although i would like to remain optimistic, even if the gradient was offshore, it is 43 in the dalles, and remains well above freezing almost to arlington. so the cold air isnt there, nor will it be.
    on the bright side, on the GFS at Hour 144 a low slips south of us… could be interesting 18th-20th. could…

  20. timmy - scappoose says:

    Mat, Clatskinie has a strange microclimate, it is sheltered from the coast range from all sides but the north one, which is the river. and although it is no great than 300′ in altitude, it snows there when only some places at 1000′ are.

  21. snodaze says:

    Well, I didn’t start this but I’ll chime in just because I saw it on the blog…
    I say, “An open mind IS a cluttered mind…”
    I also say, “Close your mind, be educated, form an opinion based on fact and make a decision…”
    That’s the stuff leaders are made of… Be a leader kids… You’ll find you were born with it if you don’t reject it.
    “OPEN MIND”… boo-hoo… what a sham… Who made that phrase up anyway? Hannibalector?
    Ok.. So is it gonna snow or what?… Will I see flakes in fishdale?

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