Weekend is Here!

PhotoNow THAT is a great viewer picture.  Apparently it’s all about being in the right place at the right time.  Don Best took this picture around 9:00pm last night as a thunderstorm suddenly popped up east of Seaside to his north.  He was on Rockaway Beach.  Don also knew my Grandpa Joe Kaiser who ran a gas station at Barview Jetty for many years.  Just a little family history there…
As for weather, much quieter out there with the only storms just now exiting Oregon over Hell’s Canyon.  There were no cloud to ground strikes today over or west of the Cascades in either Washington or Oregon (after 10am).  Looks like the chance for thunder overnight is quite small.  A strong shortwave is getting organized offshore along with a weak cold front.  It will move inland tomorrow evening.  This should push quite a bit of marine air inland Sunday.  There is a slight chance of a sprinkle making it inland either Saturday evening or Sunday morning, but the latest 00z models say that we’ll probably stay dry.
Next week is a tough forecast…this is the time of the year meteorologists should be able to just sail through one sunny forecast after another.  Apparently that won’t be the case.   An upper-level low sits just offshore and sends waves up over us.  Each model is different with the details.  This CAN be a summer thunderstorm pattern.
One thing that sticks out this evening is the big picture.  If I look back through the last 2 days of maps…I notice that they keep backing off on rainfall and the approach of the trough in general.  Models may be having a problem with attempting to shove a cool trough inland over the very hot West.  It’s extremely rare for that to happen in the last half of July, although we did have a cool trough come in the last day or so of July last year.  Enjoy the weekend!…Mark

214 Responses to Weekend is Here!

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I personally think that this will be more of a rain event rather than a thunderstorm event on Tuesday and Thursday. Wednesday on the other hand *could* be different. Simply because clearly we will have a SSE flow in place with lots of thunderstorm build up over the cascade. So we could see some hail and a few flashes but this is more of a regular rain pattern. But lets watch wednesday. I am guessing we have a storm total of .25-1.00. For everybody.

  2. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Ok just looked at tonights 00z GFS run. It’s in agreement with 18z GFS, so this solution seems to nearly be a done deal. It brings an unseasonably strong ULL just off the southern Oregon/northern California coast. This system is something you might see in mid April – mid May, not during the middle of July. Flow aloft becomes favorable for t-storms during the Tuesday night-Thursday time frame roughly as the cold pool aloft edges closer and closer. With a persistent southerly flow during this time frame it should get muggy somewhat again….
    WV Loop………
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    WV loop the ULL and accompanying trough off the southern Oregon/northern California Coast. ULL is currently located near 133W/43N moving E or slightly north of E. Models still show the ULL positions itself south towards the northern California Coast allowing a favorable SSE flow aloft to develop. Right now looking at WV loop the low is NOT in the most favorable position for conducive flow aloft. As always position of the ULL is critical determining whether we do or don’t have favorable flow aloft. IF for example this ULL continues moving E and slightly north of E, then that will lower our chances greatly as the flow would never become offshore. But as I mentioned before the last 5 models runs now show the flow backing offshore. Even though temps should only be in the low to mid 70’s we will see convection due to better dynamics/lift/forcing/cold air aloft. IMO should be more hail and more t-storms overall because the cold pool aloft is more pronounced with this ULL so the CAP will be weak if at all. Mid-level lapse rates should become more conducive also.
    Rob

  3. Mat says:

    Long time no talk all. Always readin’, just more amped for winter. Does anyone know if were still looking at a la nina next winter and cooler finally?

  4. Shawn says:

    Look at the huge swath of a cell(or cells) in Northeastern Iowa approaching Northern Illinois right now! Looks like it got up to near 70 Dbz with sustained 50-55 Dbz in the center of the cell(s) according to the NWS radar.
    Link: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ARX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    GFS is nutso and overdone but it gives us some precip on every day for the next 7. 3.11 inches to be exact. Yeah I know thats incredibly unrealistic. But we will certainly be wet this next week.

  6. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Showers and storms Dave 🙂 and especially those cooler temps.. It’s going to be/feel so nice.

  7. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Today marks 15 straight days of 80+ for high temps, and 60+ for low temps at PDX. Looks like we won’t be seeing 80+ for awhile. Lots of clouds and some showers over the next few days.

  8. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I agree with everything Rob says from my own research. But props to him for typing it! 😛

  9. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    I have to agree with your forecast Mark, models are really trending that way. I had to laugh when I saw KATU’s 10 day forecast saying it would be getting hotter again. http://www.katu.com/weather/trend

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I just looked at 18z GFS and it also agrees with the last 4 or 5 models runs of bringing a strong ULL just off the southern Oregon/northern California coast. Flow aloft becomes very favorable for t-storms during the Tuesday night-Thursday time frame roughly. SFC models show ample moisture indicating perhaps a significant t-storm outbreak.
    WV Loop………
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    WV loop the ULL and accompanying trough off the southern Oregon/northern California Coast. ULL is currently located near 135W/43N moving E or slightly north of E. Models show it gets just off the southern Oregon Coast and appears to stall and move S to position itself off the northern California Coast, then SSE flow aloft develops. As always position of the ULL is critical determining whether we do or don’t have favorable flow aloft. IF for example this ULL continues moving E and slightly north of E, then that will lower our chances greatly as the flow would never become offshore. But as I mentioned before the last 5 models runs now show the flow backing offshore. Even though temps should only be in the low to mid 70’s we will see convection due to better dynamics/lift/forcing/cold air aloft. IMO should be more hail and more t-storms overall because the cold pool aloft is more pronounced with this ULL so the CAP will be weak if at all. Mid-level lapse rates should become more conducive also. It’s going to be fun tracking this one.
    Rob

  11. heatblizzard says:

    Btw I used to be 32snowwish but thought that was a dumb and stupid name for the person that asked.
    That heat island ruined everything then shame on them.
    That means you will not be as cold in the winter if you live by the airport

  12. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    What are we now, 15 days of 80+ degree weather in a row?

  13. SnowFlake says:

    Hey Jesse… only 162 days ’til Christmas!!! Can hardly wait for the snow……………

  14. heatblizzard says:

    Thanks. Has anybody even checked that canada site you can go to 1973 in vancouver to check out a heavy shower at 4:00 its that precise.
    Wow another 80 degree day 81.7 here.
    We’re in the 1980s mode this summer. Get it 1980s 80 degrees?

  15. luvrydog says:

    wow, looks dead on here today. Figured people would be on here talking about our storm chances wednesday. Where the heck is Rob, come on man, wanna hear your thoughts for wednesday!

  16. luvrydog says:

    sweet! I’m gettin my vid camera ready for wednesday night. If the MM5 that Steve posted verifies, we could see some good shows around or right over us! I was pretty blocked from the lightning on the last storm by trees where I was at…bring on the storms!!!

  17. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Little note for those of us waiting for winter, lol. Today, sunset at PDX is at 8:56pm. We are reaching the end of the plateau of long days surrounding the Summer Solstice. From today on, the sunset time drops a minute or more per day between now and December, and the sunrise time becomes a minute or more later.

  18. luvrydog says:

    Very impressive Steve, we’ll have to wait and see if it all pans out, I’m hopin!

  19. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/avn12z500mb.html
    Here you are Josh. 500mb map of 12z GFS.

  20. Derek-West Gresham says:

    WOW!! Thats crazy Steve. Looks like a southerly flow Tuesday with some showers or maybe a thunderstorm. But Wednesday. Thats like a severe complex lol. MM5 never seems to pick up on all the precip in these patterns so its saying something when it shows this much.

  21. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Well, well, well, Wednesday sure looks interesting for storms.
    Click:
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_or_pcp1+//72/1

  22. offroadjosh says:

    can i get a link derek

  23. offroadjosh says:

    ok i will check it out right now

  24. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Thats the cut off low Josh. YOu need to look at a 500mb map to see the little vort max’s. Which is what I prefer to call them anyway.

  25. offroadjosh says:

    derek is this a short wave???
    its off to our west
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/60h/gfsx_500p_60h.html

  26. Justin says:

    Heatblizzard, Utah Climate Center does actually show daily snowfall. Chances are if it says 999 either the site isn’t recording snowfall or you forgot to fill snowfall in for the Data Fields.
    Unfortunately if you want hourly obs from before July 1996, you have to pay for them on the NCDC site. But the Farmer’s Almanac website has a nice history section that lets you check on the daily weather conditions for most stations back to 1949.

  27. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Then here is another one. I personally like this one a lot because of what it has to offer.
    http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html
    As far as our pattern goes that ridge over the central US amazes me. wow.. As that builds up our cut off low will be to our SW sending up waves or I guess shortwaves lol. Anyway all of us should get some decent rain from this. And if we can get a sunny start on Wednesday then I would expect severe thunderstorms again.

  28. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Made it down to 57 last night, not as cool as I though it might be but still very comfortable. I see Portland still didn’t manage to get below 60, it’s been like a week or more since they have. I wonder if today will really be warmer than yesterday across the area, Portland is running 5 degrees behind where they were yesterday at this time, and it looks like today will also be cloudier than anticipated. Maybe this day will be our first in the 70s for awhile.
    On to the models, 12Z is out and still shows a GREAT storm and rain pattern over us Tuesday night-Thursday. Also, it continues with the trend of keeping that horrible 600dm ridge over the rockies and plains, although it has shrunken down the area of 600dm+ heights, probably a trend that will continue until there are actually none. Still will be damn hot out there.

  29. offroadjosh says:

    nah thats not a dirty ridge. at least i don’t think so, i thought so a first but when you really look at it its not

  30. offroadjosh says:

    hey derek, is that a dirty ridge set up????

  31. offroadjosh says:

    so am i heat. and i am moving to a snowier place in like 2 weeks. i am moving to kalispell montana derek i just checked again, that is a short wave i see off our coast.

  32. heatblizzard says:

    I go to utah climate center alot but nobody seems to have actual weather events or snow or even averages or records for that matter.
    Most of the snow data shows 999 every time it snows. I’m a huge snow lover.

  33. offroadjosh says:

    is that a short wave i see derek?

  34. offroadjosh says:

    will do derek

%d bloggers like this: