Mt. Hood and Weather Update

HooderuptionI put together a little "What If Mt. Hood Erupts" piece for the newscast tonight at 10:00.  Here is a link if you would like to check out HOURS worth of reading on the subject (Mt. Hood Volcano) .  If you have any interest in volcanoes, you’ll find it fascinating.
Now, on to the weather…
A bunch of frustrated weather freaks out there this evening…including me of course.  Nice thunderstorms fired up earlier along the Cascade Crest, but they completely died out as they moved straight north towards the Columbia River.  We’ve seen several buildups in the metro area this evening, but as of 9:00pm, no lightning strikes.  It appears that with a shortwave passing by from south to north along the Coast this evening, we have transitioned to almost straight southerly or slight southeasterly flow.  That will be with us through tomorrow.  A nice setup for storms if you have enough moisture.  But with no obvious trigger just to our south, I think any storms will be isolated overnight.  Of course it would only take 2 or 3 right beside each other to pass over the metro area and we would have a "lightning storm" overhead…it doesn’t take much for us flash-starved Northwesterners does it?  Either way it’s going to be a somewhat random placement of storms if we do get any.  Hope for the best!
Storms look unlikely to me after midday tomorrow.  Much more likely over and east of the Cascades.
Not much change with trough offshore through the beginning of next week.  Although a weak system brushes us Saturday night and Sunday morning…that should give us a strong marine push then and push temperatures down into the 70’s for the first time in 2 weeks as well.
Big trough approaches later next week, but each model is handling it differently.  I can deal with that tomorrow.  For now I have a volcano to finish up with.
I do check the blog comments frequently on nights like this, so now that it’s dark, let me know if you see any cloud-cloud flashes which of course can’t be detected otherwise…NEVER MIND…NOW THERE’S LIGHTNING ALL OVER THE PLACE SUDDENLY! Mark

225 Responses to Mt. Hood and Weather Update

  1. offroadjosh says:

    i am gonna put on my speedo and go tan in antartica. ye haww. jk jk haha

  2. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Australians have coldest June on record since 1950. Interesting article:
    “LAST month Australians endured our coldest June since 1950. Imagine that; all those trillions of tonnes of evil carbon we’ve horked up into the atmosphere over six decades of rampant industrialisation, and we’re still getting the same icy weather we got during the Cold War.”
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22069080-5001031,00.html

  3. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    They switched radar to a more sensitive mode and yeah it picks up bugs and all kinds of stuff.

  4. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Still 75.4 running 3F warmer than last night. It’s still and muggy outside here.

  5. Ben Monjay @ Forest Grove says:

    Bugs

  6. Jerry says:

    Whats up with the last frame of the radar…

  7. heatblizzard says:

    By the way I looked up salem and silverton at the utah climate center and notice that during the 1989 cold blast silverton was warmer than salem.
    Salem was -1F and silverton I think was like 6 above zero that is a good example of us being warmer then the rest.
    Thanks for the knowledge. knowledge is power.

  8. offroadjosh says:

    damn check out the low tmrw night!!!!!!!!!!!
    http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/89606.html

  9. offroadjosh says:

    ya add what justin said also, you have no gorge and your farther south. but you do get better weather than us sometimes.

  10. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    57 at Wanderer’s Peak / 62 at Horse Creek. Increases ANY chance we have IF there is enough mid level moisture and lift later.

  11. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    The upper levels are SLOWLY cooling off and when the shortwave passes later we could get some lifting/forcing with slightly cooler air aloft… I forget to mention that sorry. Again this will be east of the valleys and not as intense as last night.
    Rob

  12. Justin says:

    Generally in Oregon, at least IMHO, the weather gets more boring the further south you go. Silverton is just due ENE of Salem, you don’t have the gorge, and a lot of times there seems to be a line drawn at about Aurora for events in the metro area, be it a major wind event, thunderstorm, rainstorm, arctic outbreak, icestorm, or snow event.
    But you’re really not that far from us, and experience your fair share of interesting stuff and often get events that we don’t here in Portland or Vancouver.

  13. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Well it’s NOT such a comfortable evening after all, in fact the humidity DP’s are increasing. There’s also little if any onshore breezes tonight. With the PDX NWS latest AFD it’s making me open my mind to the slight possibilities of t-storms anywhere north of Mt. Jefferson to maybe the foothills. I’m thinking after 2-3:00 AM for this slight chance.
    Rob

  14. offroadjosh says:

    your just east of salem. it may be because you have a large coast range mountain blocking you along with a cascade mt blocking you giving you your own micro climate. yup just checked the map, your right at the base of the cascade range. so the storms kinda go above you(someone correct me if i am wrong)

  15. Jordan-Kelso says:

    .SHORT TERM…ALLS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT THIS EVENING…AT
    LEAST WEST OF THE CASCADES. LOTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTERN
    WASHINGTON AND OREGON THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. HAVE SOME
    MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE VISIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY (AS WELL AS OUT THE
    WINDOW) THAT INDICATES WE STILL HAVE INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE
    EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WELL TO THE SOUTH (THINK OREGON).
    ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWS THIS ALTHOUGH THE UIL SOUNDING FROM THIS
    EVENING IS NOT EXCITING. WOULD NEED TO GET A BIT MORE COOLING ALOFT
    AND SOME FORCING TO GET SOMETHING GOING. THAT DOESN`T LOOK TO
    HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY…AND PRETTY MUCH ONLY
    OVER THE CASCADES. SO WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND WILL TWEAK THE
    ZONES TO LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO VERY LATE TONIGHT (LIKE
    NEAR DAWN) OVER THE CASCADES…AND EVEN THEN MAINLY SOUTH. OTHER
    THAN THAT FIDDLED WITH THE CLOUD COVER A BIT AND TWEAKED THE MIN
    TEMPS UP A HAIR IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS. BEYOND THAT THE CURRENT
    FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. CERNIGLIA

  16. heatblizzard says:

    Hi.
    This bugs me. Does anyone seem to know why Silverton doges storms for example
    last night we saw a little but lightning but It was in the foothill plus every snowstorm or windstorm you guys get slammed hard why we get hardly a thing It perturbs me my whole life here and now the instability seems to be going by by.
    btw the lightning bolts we did see seem to have an unusal brightness to them and we did seem some drizzle with big drops. I would like an answer since you guys are like wayyy smart.

  17. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Hmmmm PDX NWS evening AFD
    .SHORT TERM…CONVECTION HAS BEEN WELL OFF TO THE E THIS
    EVENING…BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING N THROUGH THE
    AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LIFTING N JUST OFF THE COAST.
    CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING BUT
    WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE S WA CASCADES LATER TONIGHT AS
    MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING N THROUGH
    THE AREA…AS A WEAK COOL POCKET ALOFT ROTATES N WITH THE OFFSHORE
    SHORT WAVE. THESE SEEM TO CONVERGE OVER THE S WA CASCADES LATE
    TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NAM AND GFS.
    Might see some flashes?

  18. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    SPC shows a supercell composite of 8 over eastern-central oregon. VERY impressive and not sure I’ve ever seen this in Oregon or Washington.

  19. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Quiet and comfortable evening continues. Onshore flow continues to weaken. TTD-DLS gradient has weakened to 2.2mb and still showing a trend to continue.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    IF the onshore flow doesn’t increase overnight, we don’t wake up with a marine layer over the valley, and we don’t see a lot of clouds tomorrow I think 85-90 is somewhat possible.

  20. offroadjosh says:

    ya i had huge arse hail.

  21. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Instability continues to be non-existent over the valley thus we will not see storms. Hey maybe next week with that cold trough we might see cold core storms? If not we will just have to wait until a ULL sets up off northern California again, or the monsoon gets going strongly rotating moisture NW around the backside of the 4 corners high late in July/August. Personally I’m really liking the 7day forecast nice and cooler after tomorrow, so no A/C and much more comfortable sleeping weather.
    Rob

  22. Mark says:

    Thanks Josh!!!
    Did you see lots of lightning yesterday? I was sitting outside for like 2 hours watching the lightning at my house. It was pretty tight..

  23. offroadjosh says:

    Hey Mark!!!!!!!!! here ya go.
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX&region=a1&lat=45.45000076&lon=-122.87268066&label=Beaverton%2c%20OR
    here is a good site rob gace me, if your good with weather models.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/index2.html
    and here is a good lightning map. that derek gave us
    http://www.zip977.com/stormvue/stormvue.html

  24. mark says:

    Hey guys! Anyone here remember me?
    I was just wondering if we can expect lightning today. Also, if someone can post some radar links for me, that would be really helpful.
    Thanks everyone!

  25. luvrydog says:

    If you check out the visible 1KM right now..you can actually see the outflow from the storms on the eastside, pretty cool to see!

  26. offroadjosh says:

    200 haha

  27. offroadjosh says:

    199

  28. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    We have a SLIGHT chance, but instability isn’t evident when looked at SPC parameters, and certainly will not get to the levels we had last night. WV loop shows the shortwave offshore is about due west of Newport.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    As I assumed it has skirted N, but slightly W of due north. The flow is pretty much due southerly aloft over the valleys.
    TTD-DLS gradient continues to weaken down to 3.1mb indicating weakening offshore flow.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    It’s still in the low 80’s out there.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=portland
    SB CAPE values 250-500 J/kg foothills
    MU CAPE values 100-500 J/kg valleys to foothills
    LI’s 1 valleys
    LI’s 0 to -1 foothills
    Li’s -2 to -3 Cascades
    Not the most favorable #’s and due to this I put the chance of t-storms at 5-10% especially closer to the Cascades. I think if anything you might see a flash towards the Cascades later-overnight.
    Rob

  29. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I have a picture with 14 different forks in the lightning!

  30. Jordan-Kelso says:

    Last night was AMAZING. The lightning was to my south mainly at first, CC but soon it got bolty ( I was up on a hill in Longview). Then I moved to clearing in west Longview where i could see all directions. The best of it was off to my N, NE and E. I’ve never seen lightning fork in real life, this one bolt forked it seemed like 10 miles away from its point of origin. Then my mother called and told me get home right now, I was so distracted by the lightning driving home, HUGE blue bolts and flashes off to the NNE and NE. This was one event I’ll always remember.

  31. offroadjosh says:

    here i go derek. it started at about 930pm with lightning i sat out in our back lawn watching, and trying to take pics to no avale. so i just watched. i was sitting there and looked at the radar while sitting there. i saw the t-storm K2 on its way so i waited to what seemed hours but was only like 5min. any way the hail hit first almost no hale but the hail that fell was roughly .75in in diameter. then it rained at a rate of something like .45in an hr(something in that range) with lots of lighning well then it slowed and i went in a took a shower soaped up my hair with out even getting it wet(it was soaked from the rain, and got nice cool. man btw it stunk like t-storm hard to breath when the rain hit.

  32. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Joe English isnt a met…he has no degree. Josh tell me your story in detail! I never read it. I wish I had hail. I know I saw more than 200 that was just a low estimate to be certain I saw that many. Cause I was seeing them sometimes a lot quicker than once every 10 seconds. I had more storms near me than I have ever seen in one night.

  33. offroadjosh says:

    isn’t that what they said last night? 🙂

  34. Stephen says:

    Joe English over on KATU thinks those of us west of the Cascades don’t have much of a shot to see anything significant develop tonight.

  35. offroadjosh says:

    derek you have to remember i had that huge cell pass over me, i was outside for it all except during the large hail cuz it hurt, but in the rain i got soaked. i lost count at like 125 strikes, we had at least 5 times that, every 10sec it was flashing for a good 15min

  36. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Last night was the best light show I have ever seen in Portland. I had a much better storm than you in terms of what I saw. I was outside for almost the entire time and easily saw 200+ bolts. I’m serious. Maybe more but thats a cautious number. The first two storms went to my west and shot off crazy lightning. Then as that second one was to the NW another one was to my south so I was watching those two at once. And eventually I had one to my far north, one to my west, and one to my south so three different areas at once. Eventually after a short lull, only one storm to my north, two storms moved up from the SE and SW. The SW storm had tons of lightning. The SE storm had less but it was more spactacular. After that a storm appeared out of nowhere and it poured for a few minutes. Probably .05-.10 if I was lucky. So at least I got rain. But no other storms hit me because they all dodged me..literally.. or dissolved. But all in all that was a rediculous lightning storm. I will try and get some pictures off my camera. I think one of the more interesting things was the way the different cells reacted. Some cells had primarily quick hitting lighting. Some were very prone to either CG or CC. Some had only yellow lightning while others had purple. Any ideas why they varied so much. I think the best lightning bolt I saw all night was a double strike that alternated three times a piece. So it was like right bolt..left bolt..right bolt..left bolt..right bolt..left bolt..all in one second. With a few other spokes too. Anyway cool storm.
    NOW>>>>>
    Check out water vapor everybody. Thunderstorms about to erupt in southern oregon poised to move right at us.

  37. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    What are we on now? 2 weeks of 80+ degree days?

  38. offroadjosh says:

    rob i think i might have to agree. i am really hoping for a repeat of last night

  39. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Be back later…. Keep them all informed!
    Rob

  40. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient actually weakened to 4mb after being 5.5mb earlier. This is trending to indicate that onshore flow is weakening. If this verifies this only helps things out.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

  41. offroadjosh says:

    hell I’ve been ready

  42. TV Weather Producer says:

    every one ready ?

  43. TV Weather Producer says:

    Looks like the cap is breaking to the south. Every ready ?

  44. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    On WV Patrol……
    WV loop shows a fairly significant shortwave with a lot more moisture to work with. Good mid level moisture moving N in a nearly due S flow aloft. Last May taught me that we do not always need a southerly or SE flow aloft for strong-severe t-storms as that day we had S to slightly SSW flow aloft. The difference was the vort max moved right up the coast closer to us and it was a strong one as well. WV shows what looks like to me a slight chance of t-storms later this evening-overnight. If a moderate-strong marine push was to occur this evening it would likely kill any chances.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    As the shortwave moves closer it COULD, possibly change the flow to due southerly or even the slightest possibility of the slightest SSE component aloft. It looks like the shortwave will move N skirting the coast, but any change in movement with this shortwave would give us slightly more favorable flow aloft. To me it looks like there’s a chance the shortwave will move slightly back offshore once it’s about parallel with Newport.
    Right now there’s a bit of cap aloft yet again. Locations in the north Cascades at Horse Creek and Wanderer’s Peak are running in the low-mid 70’s which is a bit too warm. Last night when the cap broke those locations dropped into the low-mid 60’s. This is important. As the shortwave moves north it could provide enough lift/forcing to erode the cap. I’m not sure about seeing all all-out break of the cap like last night however. Definitely need an eye on temps in the north Cascades at Horse Creek, Wanderer’s Peak.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=portland
    Right now I put the chances of t-storms at 15-25%
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

%d bloggers like this: