Hot…Waiting for Thunder

July 10, 2007

SnapshotThat was a scorcher…the 3rd time this spring/summer where we’ve seen a dramatic jump in temperatures from one day to the following day as an easterly wind event begins:
May 13-14…59-81  (+22)
May 28-29…68­-87  (+19)
July 9-10…87­-102  (+15)

Tillamook’s 100 was it’s 3rd highest temperature ever, Hoquiam’s 99 was the all-time record, and Newport was 68.  It’s all about the wind direction isn’t it?
The thermal trough appears to be from about Eugene to Astoria since a light southwest breeze has arrive in Eugene and the onshore wind has pushed past Tillamook.  It should be a very shallow surge (less than 1000′ deep), since there is no upper-level support for a decent onshore push.
My forecast of 102 for tomorrow is assuming we don’t get any cloud cover AND breezy west wind doesn’t arrive until 6pm or later.  I feel pretty confident about this since easterly flow over the mountains continues all through the day and doesn’t end until evening.  We will start warmer in the morning as well.
     Now, as for the lightning….it’s a crazy night in southwest Oregon with frequent lightning continuing even at 11pm.  Thunderstorms have moved as far north as a Sutherlin to Diamond Lake line.  I notice that they seem to be finally dying down now up north while continuing along the California border.
Models still show a wave lifting north tomorrow evening and right over Portland by Thursday morning.  So…though the MM5 and our model here don’t show much activity…well, they didn’t show much for this evening either.  So I’m assuming we’ll see lots of storms develop at least up to a Newport to Bend line tomorrow evening, possibly drifting north to the Washington border overnight tomorrow night.  Could be a great lightning display tomorrow night.  There is definitely plenty of instability, moisture, and heat.
Long range models now say a trough may cozy up to the West Coast next week.  That’s climatologically unlikely the 3rd week of July, so I kept the temps a bit warmer than what the new 00z GFS shows.  If it is correct we’ll see June-ish weather next week.  Of course 24 hours ago it showed hot weather next week too…Mark

9:00 AM – Smoke Approaching

July 10, 2007

Vis Take a look at the 7:30am visible satellite picture and you can clearly see a shield of high-level smoke from western wildfires approaching.  At that time it was up to about a Florence to Redmond line.  This is coming from a bunch of different fires.  There are several in California, but also quite a few now in Central-SE Oregon.  On another visibile satellite loop I check out, you could see possible a big new fire near Steens Mtn.  We’ll see later as the sun angle gets higher.  It’s always best to loop these because you’ll see the clouds move, but the forest fires just keep chugging out little (from space) plumes of smoke in the same spots.  It IS high level smoke, so we’ll probably just see the sun turn yellowish this afternoon…the low-level airflow is coming in from the NE, so not much smoke up that way.

As for weather…everything is on track, except I don’t think Newport is going to hit anywhere near 90 as the the offshore flow isn’t that strong down there.  Maybe 80 at best midday.  Nice easterly flow over the metro area is developing right now too.  Stay cool!  Mark