Last Post For June

SnapshotHere’s a slightly updated version of the graphic I used earlier in the week.  Remember the warmest June day (101) ever was followed the next by a 102?  What a difference for this weekend.  A cold upper-level trough moves inland by Sunday.  We should avoid the showers again tomorrow, especially since the clouds offshore are broken-scattered again this evening.  Then a cool and wet day Sunday.  Low lifted index (near zero) and some decent CAPE definitely point to thunderstorms Sunday.  Not a huge outbreak, but a cool spring-type pattern.   Brrr…
Models agree quite well on next week’s pattern.   Very similar to this week.  We get brief ridging Monday-Wednesday then ANOTHER cold trough approaches the latter half of the week.  Once again, as I mentioned last night, we may get more of a southerly upper-level flow as the low approaches.  That’s compared to the last two troughs and their west-southwest flow.  A setup like this is better for thunderstorms in our region.  Definitely good for thunder east of the Cascades late week.
I’m off on vacation for the next week and a half.  Well, at least after 9am on Sunday I will be.  I’m filling in tomorrow night and again Sunday morning on GDO.  Then I won’t be back until the 4th of July.  Enjoy the rest of the month…Mark

168 Responses to Last Post For June

  1. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Wahhhh…nuttin fer me today. Just dark skies & barely any rain & NO action of any kind.
    Someone gave me an older webcam & am having fits over it as there is no support on the logitech website :0(

  2. ChuckyD81 says:

    Tyler…
    Tornado in La Center??

  3. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Impressive cloud structure moved right overhead at 8:00PM. I have pics. If you are interested e-mail me @ AtmosphericWrath@hotmail.com to let me know.
    Tyler, I didn’t hear any the tornado in LaCenter, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
    Also, Eastern Washington and Idaho was raked with severe weather this evening. MANY reports of large hail, wind damage, etc, possible tornadoes causing damage also.
    Rob

  4. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    I didn’t see any lightning today, but my sister reported two close lightning strikes in Yacolt today around noon.
    Did anyone else hear about the tornado in La Center?
    Tyler

  5. Chuckyd81 says:

    Garron…
    No doubt it was a decent storm…it just didn’t have a hook.

  6. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    That cell fired up VERY quickly and I detected 12 lightning strikes within 40 seconds, not too bad for the PNW I guess. It was close to severe limits, but it pulsed down as fast as it built up.
    Rob

  7. garron near washington square says:

    Sorry Chucky,
    It just looked as it passed through Scappoose, Or and into Kallama, Wa as if it had a hook on the back end. Sorry if it wasn’t your tell tale hook echco. But, it was intense for about 15-30 minutes, as the dbz was measured at 70! THere is another small quick moving wave near Florence that might spark off before sunset in the Willamette Valley.

  8. Chuckyd81 says:

    Garron…
    That storm DID NOT have a “telltale hook” signature on it….first and foremost that area of the radar view was Range Folded. There’s no way you could have noted any rotation in that storm. Secondly, once it exited the cone of silence and the range folded area there was NOTHING about that storm’s structure that looked anything like a hook. Also, while there was (at the time of your post) a line of showers extending up towards Olympia…I’m not sure I’d call it a squall line. There were only a couple of CG lightning strikes within Seattle’s CWA today..and one in Portland’s so it wasn’t exactly a severe line of storms. I guess one could label it a squall line…but it’s a pretty weak label if you ask me. Just saying…no offense meant!
    Derek…
    Guess I was wrong eh? Little more instability popped up today than what I looked at the other day. Cold pool/upper divergence/shortwave was a bit stronger than I thought it would be…actually, given what we had in place I’m a tad surprised we didn’t have anything better than what we did!
    Chalk one up on the WRONG side for me!

  9. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    Well it appears our last chance for a real storm is now rolling up the valley. Looks pretty quiet behind that last squall line.
    Another bust of a day for storms. The most I saw here at work was some hail and gusty winds for about 10 minutes or so.

  10. garron near washington square says:

    Wow, timmy, that storm almost had the perfect telltale “hook signature as it moved between Scappoose and Kallama Wa. The cloud tops were in the extreme cat. 70 dbz!!! Might still snag a good shwr as I see something building to our south….

  11. timmy - scappoose says:

    oh tell me about the st. helens one, i was just under it. sheets of rain, thunder, and water flowing through the streets, it only lasted 15 mins though. it was intense!

  12. garron near washington square says:

    A definitive “squall-line” has formed on the underground radar site over the last 90 minutes. Now extending from roughly St Helens Or. to Olympia. Will we get one last blast???
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX&lat=45.46041107&lon=-122.79811859&label=Beaverton%2C+OR&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

  13. garron near washington square says:

    Good call Wrath!
    The showers I experienced driving from Beaverton-Hio around noon, have now blossomed up nicely for our neightbors to North of Kelso-upto Olympia. Not much happenening down the valley, plenty of sun breaks and time left if there’s enough stuff in this storm left? Best of luck to Offroad on the Montana move!!! That’ll be nice to have you there to update us on the cold pool air flow in the winter…

  14. luvrydog says:

    scuz me, it was up to 65 Dbz!

  15. luvrydog says:

    Large cell blow up just NE of Vancouver, anyone have any reports? DBZ at 61! So much for no storms today!

  16. offroadjosh says:

    another big one on the way

  17. offroadjosh says:

    just got hit with a huge downpour .72in an hr
    picked up .12in

  18. offroadjosh says:

    currently raining. yesterday we got today 8am-today 11am we got .25in of rain.

  19. offroadjosh says:

    to bad i will be in montana to see them. i leave tmrw. so hopefully i will get some t-storms over there.(haven’t really, had time to look yet)

  20. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    This is from NWS office from PDX.
    .SHORT TERM…SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW NEAR CENTER NEAR
    46N/128W WITH TROUGH AXIS ROTATING THROUGH 127W AT 15Z. APPEARS A
    SHORTWAVE ROTATING TROUGH THE TROUGH HAS BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL BEGIN
    TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NE
    OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS
    THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING FROM ANY SUN
    BREAKS. A CHANCE OF TSTMS ALSO NW HALF OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE H5
    COLD POOL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
    Pretty much sums up my post. A “chance”. Obviously better sun breaks increase that chance.

  21. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Good morning everyone.
    Latest WV loop looks decent.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    ULL is near 128W/46N or about due west of Astoria moving ENE. Cold pool associated with the ULL extends down to 42N. Appears a weak front is moving through at this time as noted on WV and this solid cloud deck. Appears the best dynamics will be in Western Washington, but it looks like Salem northward will be under the southern edge of the cold pool to get the airmass marginally unstable for a chance of t-storms.
    Visible imagery shows lots of sun breaks moving onshore. Should see decent low level heating to help aid in convection.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1
    Rob

  22. offroadjosh says:

    LOL so i was halfway right. yeah, i think they were false alarms, i didn’t see any rotation yesterday…
    well guys were off to buy a house over in montana!!!! we are going to get a storage unit to, so we can start storing things(we are already bringing things over to store).
    wish me a little luck, that we get a house high in elevation(higher than the normal 3000ft in Kalispell)and a house with out many wind blocks!!!!!!!(stupid house here freaking other houses all over)
    it will be fun, were going to have like 5+ acres so if its clear land(no wind blocks) i can set my weather station up nicely.

  23. ChuckyD81 says:

    Cherie…
    Here’s an excellent “technical” definition of what a mesocyclone is. Have any questions, let me know. (Just patch the lines together)
    http://www.weather.gov/glossary/
    index.php?word=mesocyclone
    Offroadjosh…
    True, mesocyclones (or “meso’s” for short) are found in rotating, supercellular thunderstorms…however the term ‘meso’ does not refer simply to a rotating thunderstorm. A meso is a specific portion of the rotating updraft within a storm and has specific criterion (correct grammar?). Check the link for the definition above!
    Rob…
    True…the meso “alarms” were likely false today.

  24. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Well I thought the ULL was forecasted to turn N and weaken, but right now it’s definitely not doing so. Yep the further SE the ULL gets the better. If the ULL can get inside of 130W and be offshore of the Central-Southern Oregon coast, then yes the flow could back to due southerly or SSE increasing t-storm chances ten fold.
    Rob

  25. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Rob, do you think we can keep a southerly flow tomorrow? We should if that low stays south.

  26. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Thanks Rob

  27. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Errr Mesocyclones*

  28. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I have seen Mesoscale icons on Wunderground off and on throughout the evening. Ignore them they are likely errors.

  29. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Checking WV loop, ULL and accompanying cold pool. Classing looking loop.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    ULL is near 45N/133W moving SE-ESE. It’s now about due west of Newport. The trough has dug even deeper now to 36N. Cold pool fringes near 127W. Every indication I can see tells me the cold pool aloft should be close enough to help fire off t-storms in NW Oregon from Eugene-Salem northward into Western Washington. The flow shouldn’t be onshore dominate giving us better sun breaks aiding in low level heating. Something we lacked badly during our last ULL as the flow then was more WSW. The flow tomorrow should remain SSW-SW.
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

  30. offroadjosh says:

    it is a rotating t-storm.

  31. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    what is a Mesocyclone?

  32. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Does not even show on wunderground??

  33. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    WOW….hard rain here. Like a thunder showere w/o the thunder LOL

  34. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Well dew points are in the sixties and rising around the metro area. If we can keep this up then not only will the temp not drop overnight but tomorrow it will really boost t-storm chances.

  35. offroadjosh says:

    i hope we get some t-storms tmrw!! btw 100 posts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  36. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Tomorrow from Salem northward into Western Washington I think should be under the fringes of the cold pool aloft just enough for a decent chance of t-storms.

  37. salemphil says:

    Rod Hill on K2 mentioned a slight chance of T-storms tonight and tomorrow also…sure hope he is right, I haven’t had a T-storm here all spring!!! 😦

  38. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Should be decent chances for t-storms from Salem northward.

  39. ChuckyD81 says:

    Derek…
    No, I don’t need you to explain a single thing to me…no offense intended!
    I’m going to stick to my guns here and still say no t-storms tomorrow. Best shortwave energy/cold pool combination swings through after peak heating…so I think instability will be limited enough to keep t-storms out of the valley. Just offshore around the columbia river….yea, maybe some storms there, but nothing inland but convective showers.
    It’s forecasting…not prophecy so who knows, I could be wrong! Only time will tell I guess.

  40. offroadjosh says:

    cloudy in aloha

  41. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    I have mostly sunny skys here now in the west hills…

  42. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I would not rule out an evening t-storm tonight also.

  43. offroadjosh says:

    not weather but…
    if your this stupid then you shouldn’t be eating candy.
    BOSTON — A Michigan woman is claiming that a sweet snack turned into her worst nightmare, and now she’s suing a well-known candy company.
    Victoria McArthur said she misaligned her jaw while eating Starburst candies.
    She said a piece of the candy caused her top and bottom teeth to stick together, resulting in a condition called “temporal mandibular joint dysfunction.”
    McArthur is seeking $25,000 from the Mars Corp. to pay for her rehabilitation, plus compensation for her pain and suffering.
    There has been no comment from the company on the lawsuit.

  44. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    SPC depicts SB CAPE of 250 J/kg and MU CAPE 500-1,000 J/kg across Western Oregon/Washington. LI’s are now 0 to -2 as well. Mid-Level Lapse rates aren’t the best however at 6.5 and there’s a fair amount of CIN in Western Oregon. With sun breaks, increasing humidity, colder air aloft, and a moist SSW flow aloft these parameters can be favorable to develop like this.

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