Last Post For June

SnapshotHere’s a slightly updated version of the graphic I used earlier in the week.  Remember the warmest June day (101) ever was followed the next by a 102?  What a difference for this weekend.  A cold upper-level trough moves inland by Sunday.  We should avoid the showers again tomorrow, especially since the clouds offshore are broken-scattered again this evening.  Then a cool and wet day Sunday.  Low lifted index (near zero) and some decent CAPE definitely point to thunderstorms Sunday.  Not a huge outbreak, but a cool spring-type pattern.   Brrr…
Models agree quite well on next week’s pattern.   Very similar to this week.  We get brief ridging Monday-Wednesday then ANOTHER cold trough approaches the latter half of the week.  Once again, as I mentioned last night, we may get more of a southerly upper-level flow as the low approaches.  That’s compared to the last two troughs and their west-southwest flow.  A setup like this is better for thunderstorms in our region.  Definitely good for thunder east of the Cascades late week.
I’m off on vacation for the next week and a half.  Well, at least after 9am on Sunday I will be.  I’m filling in tomorrow night and again Sunday morning on GDO.  Then I won’t be back until the 4th of July.  Enjoy the rest of the month…Mark

168 Responses to Last Post For June

  1. Stephen says:

    What a pretty warm 4th of July! Looks like PDX is about to hit 90 (if it hasn’t already)….most other places in western Oregon have hit the 90-degree mark already within the past hour. Looking at obs in central and eastern OR it looks like their baking with temps near the century mark! Stay cool, everyone! Be safe!

  2. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Stay safe everyone for the 4th. Pretty humid day outside here, temps nearing 80 and dewpoints near 70.. Time for poolside party!

  3. garron near washington square says:

    CONGRATULATIONS TO OFFROAD!!! Way to go buddy, hope you guys have the best 4th ever, and please keep us posted on your progress there and the weather from time to time!!! HAVE A SUPER 4TH EVERYONE!!!!

  4. offroadjosh says:

    can’t talk lon guys, have limited net access. here is our new house!!!!!!!! our house in aloha sold, we just put an offer on this one. and its basically done now!! woo hoo.
    http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?poe=realtor&mlslid=271567&sid=6d5792276be040129d7559edf30dc364&lid=1084231692&lsn=6&srcnt=8#Detail

  5. Chuckyd81 says:

    Ryan…
    Amen to the Allergy comment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  6. Gregg-Toutdale says:

    Since we have no storms here, watched on live streaming cameras in Wisconsin, and now Chicago a very impressive line of thunderstorms. Watched the line pass thru North Dakota last night on a live camera in Devils Lake, ND. The lightning show this evening from Lake Geneva, and Madison, WI. and now Chicago has been very impressive.

  7. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    So far all the regulars on here seem optimistic for an active winter. The important indicators for La Nina/El Nino seasons such as the PDO are all trending towards or beginning to trend towards La Nina.
    This is the first summer in a while that has been close to average and even a little bit bellow average in temps for a few years I think. Maybe the NW is really breaking out of the warmer cycle we’ve been in.

  8. Ashley in Oregon City says:

    hello folks,
    I know that i am crazy as i said before about snow and cold and logic tells me that we won’t have a cold winter but I think it is interesting that this is one of the few years I can remember when they have forecasted 2 heatwaves and then really backed of on them. It seems 99% of the time they forecast cooler weather then it all of a sudden becomes much warmer. When they forecast cold and snow even 3 to 4 days in advance 80-90% of the time it never comes. This year atleast up to this point for the summer season it appears different. What will that mean for winter???
    Any thoughts???
    Crazy weatherman

  9. John - Aloha says:

    I’m at 78 at 11:30, that is 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Winds are light and generally out of the NE

  10. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    Woohoo! The ridge is far weaker than everyone was predicting earlier in the week. Only another 3-months of this and we will be into fall and those of us whom suffer from allergies will rejoice!

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Yeah sorry I left that part out. Last June was very untypical with 100F temps. I was 83 today and I’m still 77.2. Very slow cool down.

  12. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Well, we actually had our first round of 100+ “heat” in late June last year, followed by round two in late July.
    I don’t see anything to suggest 95+ temps later this week. The competition is still suggesting the next four days to read as 86/93/95/87. Although it reached 80 today, I don’t see it reaching 86 tomorrow or 93 on the Fourth. I’m sure will see one or two days peak at 90 this week, though.

  13. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Last year we didn’t get into “heat” until July 20th.

  14. timmy - scappoose says:

    ill be out on mine this week Lurvy!

  15. luvrydog says:

    Well, my consensus is this so far, models way overdid the ridge in the beginning, this doesn’t look like much more than a good old fashioned sunny coupla july days that reach the low 90’s, not very impressed although the sunny weather will finally allow me to get out the waverunners! Thoughts?

  16. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Sean, yes let’s trade please. Looks like we don’t have a chance of storms until the middle of July!

  17. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Rob – It’s ok, I’ve only got a SLGT risk of severe on the 4th of July. I’d personally much rather have your dry weather on the 4th of July.
    Wanna trade?

  18. offroadjosh says:

    Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!! i was in those storms. holy crap!! sorry i didn’y post, didn’t have net access. more later

  19. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I am SO deprived of storms I have to go looking elsewhere desperately. This is a live streaming cam from Gulf Shores, Alabama. Pretty active lightning. It streams for 60 seconds, then goes to a still. Just scroll down and click ‘Live Webcam 2’ to view the streaming cam again.
    http://gulfcondos.com/webcam/default.htm?cam2
    Rob

  20. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yeah he is over there. He e-mailed me a few days ago but he hadnt seen anything yet.

  21. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    I wonder if offroadjosh ended up in the middle of those severe storms in Spokane and No. Idaho on his trip to Kalispell, Mt. He was hoping for some thunderstorm activity…

  22. garron near washington square says:

    The latest forecast…Hottest of the season Wed/Thurs…
    afdpqr
    A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
    Note: Links in the text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
    Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    FXUS66 KPQR 011520
    AFDPQR
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    900 AM PDT SUN JUL 01 2007
    .SYNOPSIS…WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE DAY TO
    SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
    INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.
    THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
    COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
    PRECIPITATION FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
    GIVE SOME CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONE MORE
    WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
    BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY STAY ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. THEN AN UPPER
    LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRONGLY BUILD FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND
    LIKELY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR TO THE INLAND AREAS
    ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
    RELIEF IN THE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A
    WEAK SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND CAUSES THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GO
    ONSHORE.
    &&
    .SHORT TERM…A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
    THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS KEEPING A LITTLE
    MARINE INFLUENCE ON THE COAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS
    MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CENTERED OUT BETWEEN 130W AND 140W WITH A
    WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG 130W. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES…ONSHORE FLOW
    WILL INCREASE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON LATER
    TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN THE WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
    TONIGHT…AND MOVE INTO THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY.
    SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
    COASTAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY…WITH SOME DRIZZLE
    REACHING CLOSE TO KELSO…BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY FARTHER
    INLAND. THE MAIN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY WILL BE MORE CLOUDS WITH
    TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKEND.
    THE MODELS SHOW ONE MORE WEAK FRONT BRUSHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
    LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…BUT THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW LOOKS
    TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA UP ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST. BUT IT MAY
    KEEP SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTH COASTAL ZONES. UNDER RISING 500 MB
    HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES…THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
    TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM OVER THOSE MONDAY.
    .LONG TERM…NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS…
    THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HERE IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY AND
    THURSDAY FOR THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR INLAND. A WEAK
    SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE MODELS SUGGEST A
    COOL DOWN AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
    THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE
    THURSDAY…AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS TOO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY WITH
    INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MADE THOSE FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS
    THIS MORNING.
    &&

  23. KIRK says:

    DID SOMEONE SAY SNOW?? OH MY BAD, I HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER 4 MONTHS FOR NOVEMBER TO COME. I LIKE THE SUNNY WARM TEMPS TOO. LOOKS LIKE A TOASTY 4TH OF JULY. SOUNDS GOOD TO ME. JUST CHECKING IN TO SAY HI. HAVE A GREAT 4TH!!

  24. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I was basing it from the NWS and the last many runs had a small impulse of some type over northern California as the ridge was breaking down with southerly flow aloft. 18z looks a bit cooler, but often 6z/18z models runs are outliers as we’ve seen so many times. Yes there has been a trend to cooler, but I think we need to wait another 3-4 model runs until we can say THIS or THAT will occur. I stand by everything else I said and don’t mind being wrong.
    Rob

  25. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Based on the last several models runs and NWS AFD’s this is my forecast.
    PDX will not reach 100. The ridge/heat axis is too far east for a sizzling 100+ type heatwave or to produce strong offshore flow.
    I’m going with 93-97 for Wednesday – Friday.
    Friday a shortwave moves north firing t-storms across the Southern-Central Cascades and South Central Oregon. Some of these storms may be severe. We will have to watch to see if any of these storms move onto the foothills. Friday night t-storms possible west of the Cascades until 3:30AM, then onshore flow seeps in as the shortwave ejects from Oregon moving NE into Washington. Again I will say that the next 5-6 model runs will set in stone what’s going to transpire and that things can change. I realize I’m going out on a limb here, but that’s how I roll.
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

  26. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    NWS PDX office afternoon AFD..
    .SHORT TERM…MODELS CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
    SUN AND MON…AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN MORPHS INTO A
    HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN. DEEPENING OF THE E PAC TROUGH IS TO RESULT
    IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE LATE SUN
    NIGHT AND MON APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR GENERATING ANY
    PRECIPITATION…AS TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
    MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN
    TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON…OTHERWISE WILL
    CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SHORTWAVES
    SUN AND MON WILL TEND TO HOLD OFF THE STRONG WARMUP UNTIL TUE AS
    UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS.
    .LONG TERM…EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
    UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY MIDWEEK…INFERRING A HOT DRY
    PERIOD LASTING THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. DETAILS ARE
    TENDING TO VARY AT THE END OF THE WEEK…BUT GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
    SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AROUND FRI AS UPPER FLOW TURNS
    SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
    POINT GFS DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING IN SAT IS WEAK ENOUGH TO
    ASSUME BASICALLY A STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
    PRECIPITATION…SO WILL KEEP ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD FREE OF
    PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI.
    &&
    Hmmmmm…
    Rob

  27. garron near washington square says:

    WOW! what a difference a day makes. the low clouds never made it over the crest of the west hills to Washington county, so it’s clear as a bell here today. Now, bring on the heat wave, and Greg Oden!!!!

  28. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Sorry I fell asleep before I could give details. There was a tornado in La Center, 18 years ago yesterday.
    Very foggy this morning. Less than a week and I’ll be heading up to Alaska…so it looks like I’ll just miss the major heat.
    Tyler

  29. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    I just want to know what is the latest fog for our area because I just looked outside at the wild life refuge and it is all fog just wondering if this is odd or not?

  30. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Lots and lots of damage across Spokane into northern Idaho.
    http://www.krem.com/perl/common/slideshow/…on=www.krem.com
    Rob

  31. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    …A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM PDT FOR WESTERN
    CLEARWATER COUNTY..
    * AT 636 PM PDT…DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO.
    THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF JAYPE…OR ABOUT 13 MILES
    EAST OF OROFINO…AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
    CLEARWATER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 2
    SW OF OROFINO AT 623 PM. THE FUNNEL CLOUD HAS SINCE
    DISSIPATED…BUT THE STORM IS STILL POTENTIALL TORNADIC.
    * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR..
    CARDIFF AND HEADQUARTERS AROUND 645 PM PDT.

  32. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    WOW, this was earlyier in Idaho

  33. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Well today was interesting but the SSE flow on the GFS at hour 168 I think is more interesting.

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