Cool Clouds & Missed Forecast

PhotoSeveral of you were discussing the bright clouds seen the other night over an hour AFTER sunset and one viewer emailed me asking what they were.  So I checked out the pictures too.  The one on the left was taken by Kellen Harrel here in Portland about the time I was on the air Tuesday night (10:35pm or so).  Head here to check out more pictures of the Noctilucent Clouds And here is a link from NASA that explains their Mission to Study Noctilucent Clouds
A bit strange considering the sightings of these clouds are increasing.  Hmmm, call Mulder and Scully.
Now, on to the weather…a missed forecast this morning, but no one complains when the weather is much better than expected.  On my drive home at midnight low clouds were solid from Downtown Portland all the way out to the Gorge.  Then at 4:30am when the annoying dog was barking and wanting out, I had drizzle and a light shower at my home out there.  So I wake up to sunshine and another warm day…how did that happen?!  Most likely a wave in the southwesterly flow passing overhead broke up the marine layer around sunrise.  A dying trough or front is moving through Northwest Oregon right now, but behind it there is no solid deck of marine clouds, so I think we’ll see broken skies again tomorrow.  Just a bit cloudier and a bit cooler.
No changes in the long range forecast…a cold trough and then brief ridging next week before another chilly trough moves towards us midweek.  This next one may be more interesting since the low seems to give us southerly flow ahead of it…a bit more of a thunderstorm pattern across the entire region…Time for the 11pm show…got to go…Mark

12 Responses to Cool Clouds & Missed Forecast

  1. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I just checked SPC soundings to get an idea of what the atmosphere is like as far as any favorable t-storm parameters are setting up.. According to the 00z sounding Quillayute already has some SFC Cape, MU Cape and favorable LI’s.
    SFC CAPE: 303
    MU CAPE: 303
    LI : -1
    ConvT: 60F
    Very little if any CIN-H to prohibit any convection IF it did fire.
    Also the visible loop isn’t showing much in the way of a marine layer developing to our SW along the Coast.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=vis&size=4

    Closer inspection….
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1

    Looking at WV loop I have found the reason why.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4

    Drier air is working it’s way in from the SW out ahead of the ULL circulation. You can also see the batch of clouds out around 134W/43N curving north with digging taking place 141W/43N. Due to this drier air being pulled in from the SW I do not expect any significant marine layer to develop tonight.
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

  2. offroadjosh says:

    my new weather station is here. Its 68.5 here. Winds are NE at 3.5Mph. Gusting to 11Mph.

  3. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    66.0 here, and just got a good wind burst to 19.7.

  4. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Got woke up at just before 4am this morning, to thunder/lightning and winds approaching 40mph and heavy rain. Had a MCC move through and did prompt a warning just south of Indianapolis. Looks like it could be another day or so of some stormy weather, before the furnace gets turned on full blast on Sunday through Wednesday.

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yep Steve, I have been watching these things. We have had quite a string of positive SOI days. Going from memory, I think 38,37,28,25,29. I would expect it to start going down but not too bad. IE -5 to +10 or so. Somewhere in that range.
    The 200mb and 850mb indexs both have been looking good. Also even though the subsurface waters and thermocline warmed up they are cooling rapidly right now. If we can get some new cool water to develop then the nina might get going. Also the GLAAM is nice as well. Even though the MJO went higher last month that will change within 1-2 months I figure. So as long as we can keep this indicies decent then the nina will take off.
    Also along with all that I am glad to see the positive PDO regime finally ending. I have data that shows this and can get it but would prefer not to. This should mean slightly better winters as a whole because it favors more la ninas. The PDO is trying to get its act together as we speak. Steve, have you noticed the sudden cooling off the west coast? Thats a good sign.
    Lastly.. My friend who has a theory of how to predict if we will have good winters or not,works on every year he has looked at, is thinking that things are looking good so far. June is important. But the factors he looks at are most important in the July-October period. If they stay good you can probably be guaranteed a good winter. I will fill you guys in on this later but its amazing how well it works.

  6. Steve Pierce (Vancouver) says:

    Hello all! Long time no chat!
    Just FYI — If the current SOI trend continues, the June figure will likely be the first 90 day reading to be “at” or “above” zero in over a year. The 30 day SOI will likely be pushing +15 by then as well. I hedge my bets that we are now beginning the big La Nina push that will make or break the direction we are heading into this winter. I will also hedge my bets that OSU wins another national baseball title this weekend. 🙂
    P.S. The PDO is hanging right at zero and is ready to make a move soon.
    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
    http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

  7. CBC-Tech - Washougal says:

    I love it! Hey Mark, how bout a new seven-day graphic? The current one looks depressing… 😉

  8. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Hmmm another morning with blue skies…. I like it.

  9. offroadjosh says:

    waa hoo. my weather station, has left TUALATIN FOr delivery!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Thank you Mark. Great info on the Noctilucent Clouds that’s pretty neat stuff. Hoping that trough digs far enough south to put us under the cold pool aloft for Sunday, and really interested in next weeks ULL.
    Rob

  11. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!

  12. kyle@Skamania Lodge says:

    Thanks Mark…
    I hope we get the thunder storms that would be great!!!

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