Marine Push

SnapshotA very brief post tonight because I need to catch up on some emails.
Major marine push this evening.  I noticed the North Bend to Portland pressure gradient maxed out at 8 millibars.  Now it’s back to the marine-air-dominated weather pattern.  Lots of gray and some showers/sprinkles at times.
The only major change to the forecast today and this evening was in the long range outlook.  The 18z and now the 00z GFS have completely destroyed any idea of decent ridging for 80+ temps next week.  In fact the new 00z GFS now has a deep trough nearby all of next week.  Apparently June will end cool and cloudy.  There will be some improvement Monday and Tuesday as we had this week, but then it’s downhill after that.  Enjoy the first day of summer…but remember that summer west of the Cascades doesn’t REALLY begin until AFTER the 4th of July.  Now discuss amongst yourselves..Mark

21 Responses to Marine Push

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I think we got to watch Sunday for thunderstorms. Or at least hailstorms. Tomorrow should tell a lot.

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/avn18zsfc.html
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/avn18z500mb.html
    Check both of these out. The first trough will likely produce some thunderstorms everywhere in the PNW but the second one is insane. Look at how deep that trough is digging. Its starting to pull up a SSE flow by the end which is great for thunderstorms here. This has been consistent on the models to some effect.

  3. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yeah I like to go there too. I looked at the thing and thought “what? Hey thats us!” so I wanted to post about it. Speaking of it, have you noticed how the sunspot tracker on there has been blank for some time. Thats a good omen if you believe in reduced sunspot activity cooling the Earth.

  4. ChuckyD81 says:

    Derek…
    Nice catch. I visit that site daily….saw that picture the other day and thought nothing of the header “NLC’s invade the usa.” I especially paid NO ATTENTION WHATSOEVER to just where that picture was taken! I’m now very jealous as I would like to have seen those clouds! I was even working midnight shifts during that display to boot…ahhh well.
    Jordan & Gene…
    What time did you say you saw those colors? NLC’s tend not to be red…at least from what I’ve read on them and the pictures I’ve seen. A sundog or iridescence may still have been what you saw if it was during the day.
    All…
    Anyone else get a snapshot of those Noctilucent clouds??

  5. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Happy Summer everyone!

  6. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Found this on wikipedia. Apparantly these clouds may be harbingers of climate change. It seems the one seen in the Portland area Tuesday night was out of the cloud’s usual range, which is north of 50N, so definately a treat.
    Wikipedia:
    Noctilucent clouds, also known as polar mesospheric clouds, are bright cloudlike atmospheric phenomena visible in a deep twilight. The name means roughly “night shining” in Latin. They are most commonly observed in the summer months at latitudes between 50° and 70° north and south of the equator.
    They are the highest clouds in the Earth’s atmosphere, located in the mesosphere at altitudes of around 85 km, and are visible only when illuminated by sunlight from below the horizon while the ground and lower layers of the atmosphere are in the Earth’s shadow; otherwise they are too faint to be seen. Noctilucent clouds are not fully understood meteorological phenomena. Clouds generally are not able to reach such high altitudes, especially under such thin air pressures.
    As an explanation, it was once proposed that they were composed of volcanic or meteoric dust, but they are now known to be primarily composed of water ice (confirmed by UARS). They appear to be a relatively recent phenomenon—they were first reported in 1885, shortly after the eruption of Krakatoa—and it has been suggested that they may be related to climate change. At least one researcher, Dr. Michael Stevens of the United States Naval Research Laboratory, believes space shuttle exhaust may contribute to the formation of noctilucent clouds. Imaging has also shown that some debris clouds from various space disasters have been mistaken for noctilucent clouds. [1]

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    *thought it looked

  8. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I actually did! I was coming home from work in the evening and though it looked almost like the northern lights or something. It was high in the western sky and almost looked as if it were illuminated, maybe it was high enough in the atmosphere so the suns rays were still hitting it even though it had been dark at the surface for awhile. What are those caused by?

  9. Derek-West Gresham says:


    Hey guys check this out. A notulucent cloud over PDX 2 days ago! Anybody see it?

  10. Stephen says:

    Haha, Mark…it’s actually quite nice outside so no complaints here 😉

  11. Mark Nelsen says:

    Oops…that was my thought when I woke up as well.
    But nobody minds if we screw up the forecast in this direction right? Looks like the upper-level disturbance has broken up the marine layer for now.

  12. Stephen says:

    Quite surprised that it’s clear as a bell outside this morning…already up to 62 degrees, which is about the same temp I had yesterday morning.

  13. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Visible loop explains it all. See a nice opening from any low clouds from about Salem northward just north of PDX.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1

  14. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Thank you for the update Mark.
    Good morning everyone.
    Hmmm something doesn’t fit this morning. Strong marine push last night? Check. Low clouds filling in after midnight last night? Check. Little if any morning low clouds? Check. Strong SW push and no morning clouds this was not expected. This will throw all forecasted high temps right out the window for sure.
    Rob

  15. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Definitely looking like it’s going to be a bit dreary and damp over the next few days for you guys.
    I actually went and purchased a pool this weekend, temps have been running in the upper 80s and lower 90s over the last 7-10 days. Also the humidity has been pretty high (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s), just a wee bit uncomfortable (unless you’ve got a pool).
    Looks to be active over the next 48-72 hours (with several MCC’s moving through), before the heat and humidity returns. Take it easy everyone!

  16. Chuckyd81 says:

    Jordan…
    It sounds as if what you saw was a “sundog.” These are the left and right most portions of the 22 Degree halo. That being said it appears as if I’ve misunderstood the locations of sundogs for quite a while now. Apparently they are NOT always located at 22 degrees…therefore they’re not at the intersection of the 22 degree halo and the parahelic circle like I previously thought!
    check this link out…http://www.atoptics.co.uk/halo/parhelia.htm
    My misunderstanding is addressed in a footnote at the bottom of the screen.
    Gene…
    Not sure what you saw, but it was (like Jordan) most likely a sundog or iridescent clouds. You tend to see a lot of colors with iridescent clouds so you probably saw a sundog. Check the link above and browse around that site…you’re bound to find what you saw on that site!

  17. Derek-West Gresham says:

    True that Mark. I want some nice summer weather eventually, but lets skip the hot stuff for once!

  18. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I think it is pretty interesting that a lot of the stations we refer to for our national climate data may be artificially warmed. I’ve always joked about them keeping a space heater handy near the PDX station, never thought I might be onto something. It is frustratingly hard anymore to get representatively cool or cold temperatures at both the Portland Airport and Pearson Airport (Vancouver) weather stations. Is this from human-caused urbanization encroaching on the areas? Here is data highlighting temperature departure in respect to average for this month so far, June 2007:
    VUO: + 2.1
    PDX: + 0.6
    Salem: +0.6
    Eugene: -0.3
    Hillsboro: -1.4
    Troutdale: -1.6
    Redmond: -0.4
    My Station (Orchards): -0.7
    So while we are calling this an average to even slightly above average month so far, it seems that many recording stations outside of urbanized areas are taking this in as a below average month. Vancouver is the most out of step with the others, as is often, since the Vancouver area has seen the most explosive development within the 1971-2000 period of temperature averages. Most of these urbanized stations simply have warmer overnight lows to thank for this “artificially” above-average weather. I have seen this happen month after month, with PDX and Vancouver taking down above average temps and everyone paying heed to those while recording stations in outlying areas may have average or below average temps almost exclusively due to cooler nights due to better radiational cooling outside the heat island. I think this is a much overlooked but important take on our local, national and world climate and how much of our data may be skewed.

  19. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Thanks for the update Mark…
    This is something I’ve always wondered a great deal about. I believe the effects are very evident at PDX and VUO.
    Are Climate Recording Stations Accurate?
    Tuesday, June 19, 2007
    Guest blog by Jesse Ferrell
    When trying to look at the last 100 years of weather data here in the United States, we typically turn to the “official climate record”, which is defined by NCDC (the National Climatic Data Center, part of NOAA and the U.S. government). These 1,221 stations are referred to as the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN).
    The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that an independent meteorologist and blogger from California, Anthony Watts, has taken on the project of documenting the locations and surroundings of these stations. See, any weather-fearing meteorologist knows better than to put a temperature sensor near anything but open grass, but as you can see on Anthony’s site, SurfaceStations.Org, many of these USHCN stations are near various manmade heat sources. He provides graphs of the “good” and “bad” stations, which seem to indicate that some of the locations are being heated artificially.
    This may be no vast warm-wing conspiracy though … the stations may have been installed correctly years ago, but manmade effects have gradually crept in over the years and the government may have not given the proper oversight to check back and make sure the stations are still correctly placed. NCDC has quality-control procedures outlined for station re-locations and instrument changes, overall urban warming, and even “other station changes,” but Anthony is skeptical whether their remote data tweaking procedures can really account for what he’s seen by visiting stations in-person. He presents photos of potential location violations on his website, including (as a meteorologist, these make me wince):
    – Proximity To Asphalt
    – Located Next To Air Conditioning Exhaust
    – Aircraft or Vehicle Parking Lot Next to Station
    To be fair, he also documents stations that are “well maintained and well sited.” Whichever way you feel, he is asking for your help in documenting the details of your local USHCN station.
    Updated: 6/19/2007 10:13 AM

  20. Kyle @ Skamania Lodge says:

    Thanks Mark…
    Thank-you for reiterating what I said on June the 14th. That summer realllly doesn’t start until after the 4th of July weekend!!!!! ( LOL!!! )
    Kyle.

  21. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!

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