Can’t Shake The Cool Weather

SnapshotAfter a forecast in the lower to mid 70’s today, I was surprised that most of us only made it into the upper 60’s.  And apparently it only goes downhill from there into the weekend.
First, tonight there is a nice little system moving onshore, bringing showers to the Coast and now sprinkles inland.  I see radar returns approaching McMinnville at 10:45pm.  It’s a fast moving system so it will be out of the area by midday tomorrow. 
Then a stronger trough moves in over the weekend.  This seems to be a persistent pattern for the last 2 weeks, so another cloudy and cool weekend with a good chance for showers Sunday.
Long range is a mess.  Maps are all over the place.  GFS had absolutely no ridging in the morning and midday runs (12z/18z), but no is looking a bit more similar to the ECMWF.  I took an average of the two, which gives 850mb. temps of 12 on Tuesday-Wednesday afternoon, and assumed very light onshore flow.  That’s how I ended up with a 7 Day forecast much cooler than yesterday’s, but not nearly as cool as the 12z/18z GFS.  Do you like that forecast reasoning?  If not you get to make your own 7 Day Forecast.  Now take a look at the 00z Canadian.  It would give us 60’s and showers much of next week!  As I mentioned, what a mess!  I do plan to put the little plastic tunnels back up over my "warm-season" vegetables tomorrow.  Just too much chilly weather ahead on the maps…Mark

8 Responses to Can’t Shake The Cool Weather

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I have been doing some additional research for our summer rain patterns here. Nothing for sure yet but I have noticed certain long term patterns that can give us better summer rainy seasons. Basically years where the atmosphere is highly “blocky” if you will are better and this year does have that characteristic. It doesnt look as good as I would like but I would guess that this summer will be slightly dry but not bone dry. I guess we will see. I will let you all know if I can find any more specifics out.

  2. garron near washington square says:

    lol Mark, and camas mom…I still think that the weather lottery would be a great fix for all of us weather addicts!!! We could all put in $5 a week and bet on events and temps, and who’s veggies would recover from the frost. I lost all my tomatoes last yr. That was my fault, as i planted them way too early, and Hillsboro is notorious for late season frost, even in mid May. Mr. Nelsen, I hope you have a great father’s day, as well as all the fathers’ out there, screw the weather fro a couple of days…we’ll get a summer, but it’s like watching a pot of water boil, you’ve got to be patient in the PAC NW.

  3. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    It was weired I wook up and it was raining pretty good a surprise to me because everyone has been saying no rain, but I guess that happens alot here in the Northwest, also pretty windy outside to about 10 MPH right know hope this clears out for fathers day.

  4. Camas Mom says:

    WHAT?! Give me a break, I thought Monday was gonna be hot?!! Just great, my blood is thinned out and I’ll be freezing my fanny off. 😦
    And what’s this about covering veggies? Which ones should I cover?

  5. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Thanks Mark. Lol, I think I will stick with just watching your 7-day for now 😉

  6. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yeah I have been discussing this with others…an absolute forecasting nightmare. Any bets about what we see tomorrow on the models? Seeing as it always seems to revert to cooler weather thats where I would put my trust for now.

  7. kyle says:

    Thanks Mark, Everybody knows that summer doesn’t reeaally start until after the 4th of July weekend..

  8. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!

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